A major rick by Bet365 has put the preview for the first Test (starts 03.00GMT Friday) between Bangladesh and England in the shade. The firm have priced up top Bangladesh series bowler and by jove, they’ve erred.
Shakib al hasan, the Bangladesh captain and spin bowler, is an incredible 7-4. How many times in Bangladesh’s last five series do you think Shakib has copped? Five. Given the statistics, Shakib should really be no offers. And it not, a massive odds-on shot.
Make no mistake, this is the value bet of the year.
As for the first Test, we were considering getting with Shakib anyway. In Chittagong, he has taken 21 wickets in his last three Tests (seven against India, five against Sri Lanka and nine against New Zealand).
So it would be fair to reckon he will go well again. Blue Square and 888Sport have him at 11-4 to be top Test bowler. Bet365 have him at 5-6 for 123 performance points (1 point per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wkt). His average make-up in seven Tests there is a whopping 139. You can get long at 128 with Sporting Index.
England are 4-11 (Skybet, VC) for victory with Bangladesh 9-1 (Ladbrokes) and the draw 4-1 (general). There have been six results out of seven on this ground. Other stats of note is the first-innings average score of 337. You might be able to lay England on Betfair at just shy of even money for 400 or more.
The top-bat market is where most of the money will go. Alastair Cook is 4-1 jolly for top England first dig runscorer. Mushfiqur Rahim, a ton last time on this ground, is 8-1 (VC). Interestingly, in the 14 first team innings, only one opener has top scored.
Extrabet are also taking a risk making Kevin Pietersen 11-18 run favourite in a runs match bet with Paul Collingwood. KP is in horrendous form while Colly has shown he has adapted well to the alien conditions.
Let’s get one thing straight, this blog is not going to get on its high horse and start preaching that you should not back Team A for Indian Premier League glory for spurious reason X or Team B for spurious reason Y. The IPL is a mighty tricky competition to call and for that reason ‘value’ is the key word.
In a format where a contest changes in the shake of a dancing girl’s pom-pom, and over 43 days and 60 matches at that, it would be folly not to reckon that each of the eight sides could be celebrating come the final on April 25.
Look at the facts: Rajasthan Royals, huge underdogs, won the inaugural edition despite having few top echelon international stars. The same year Deccan Charges finished rock-bottom. Fast forward 12 months and they were celebrating glory over Bangalore, who had previously come last. Rajasthan? Not even close with third-bottom.
So you will forgive this blog for reckoning that anything can happen. Delhi Daredevils have the most powerful squad in terms of batting and bowling, there is no doubt about that. If you want to back them at 4-1 (Extrabet) then go ahead. It’s just that we reckon that’s a little short on the two-time semi-finalists given the unpredictable nature of the tourny.
Our picks centre around the underdog having its day again. We like the Mumbai Indians and Kolkata Knight Riders at 7-1 (Coral) and 17-2 (Stan James) respectively.
Mumbai finished fifth in 2008 and second last in 2009. So they fit the bill perfectly. Looking at their squad there appears to be no reason why they can’t take on the likes of Delhi and win. They have power at the top of the batting in Sanath Jayasuriya and Sachin Tendulkar, the ability to go big in the middle order with Dwayne Bravo and Kieron Pollard and, finally, their bowling mix is perfect.
Zaheer Khan and Lasith Malinga are expert death bowlers and both could win them a tight game. Harbhajan Singh, a fierce competitor is the high-quality spin option. Perhaps most importantly they have fantastic local talent. This could make the difference. Remember the names Nayan, Satish and Madan, the keeper.
Mumbai are 11-4 (Hills) to reach the final and even money to make the semis (Skybet), two sensible alternatives given the helter-skelter nature. But with Totesport offering half the odds the first two each-way, the 6-1 is the top price.
Kolkata are a less confident selection. They have the talent, but do they have the team spirit? That has been their undoing in two woeful years, finishing bottom and second-bottom. When such a dispirit group of players are brought together by a franchise it is vital they bond well. That has never happened at KKR.
Until now. Dav Whatmore, the likeable Aussie, can pull the squad together and get individuals like Chris Gayle, Brendon McCullum and Sourav Ganguly working together. Like Mumbai, there is much to like about their bowling with Shane Bond, Ishant Sharma and Ajantha Mendis a mouthwatering line-up.
They are 7-2 (Hills) to reach the final and even money (Skybet) to make the semis. The last four is a real possibility so don’t be afraid to take big prices on KKR and look to lay off.
The biggest sporting action happening around Europe today comes from the first leg matches in the Quarter Final stage of the Europa League. We’ll be previewing the three biggest games in this article.
Like Buffalo tonight but price is high. Don’t think DAL will be able to withstand another all-out attack and while BUF will not be able to score a 50-burger for SOG like WSH on Monday, the Sabres do rank 8th overall with 31.4 shots per game average.
Lindy is no fool, either. If Turco hadn’t of stood on his head the score would’ve been 10-4 Caps. What’s the best recipe for a team that’s struggled to find the net?
“Uh hmm,... Gentlemen... Fire at will!”
But, BUF last four home games they have registered shot counts of 35-24-28-45 so it’s all over the map. In those four games the final score totalled 5-4-4-5 goals, too, so not a lot of scoring on either side.
BUF is 0-14 in its past six games on the PP and have just 1 PP goal in their last 10 outings (1-for-31), but they are not taking a lot of penalties either. The Sabres rank 5th in the league with 10.9 PIM/G.
DAL is 6th in PIM/G so with decent goaltending, the Stars lingering problems on the road this season (which is NOT totally cured, IMO), and two disciplined teams with lower than average PP units (DAL is 16th), I’m staying away from the side and betting the total.
Six-of-nine NHL games Tuesday night saw the lead change hands late and for bettors it can act as a key indicator towards which teams really have what it takes to make a run.
Dallas at Buffalo, O/U 5.5.
I show less than 5 goals and have a system on the under that’s 62–104 = 63% to the under the last five seasons.
Carolina at Washington, O/U 6.5.
I show this game sailing over the total by more than one goal.
Rangers at New Jersey, O/U 5.
Conflicting data here as I show just over 4 goals but there is a great over system in this game at 50–14 = 78% the past five seasons including 6–2 over this season and 40–11 to the over the past three seasons.
LA at Chicago, O/U 5.5.
I have conflicting data here and I show 5.1 goals.
Vancouver at Phoenix.
Conflicting data as well here and I show just over 5 goals.
The Jazz have won 22 of their last 27 st. up including 9 of 11 on the road. Utah is also 18–11 ATS when on the road and 6 – 2 ATS when away in their last eight contests.
- Play against home dogs with a losing st. up record after a home win by 3 points or less. This system is 82–40 = 67% ATS since 1997 including 22–8 ATS the past three seasons.
My NBA play for today is on Utah – 6.
Also have an opinion on Boston at Memphis, over 195 based on a system that’s 8–2 to the over this season and 72–30 = 71% since 1996.
In New Jersey at Dallas I have a system that’s 3–1 to the over this season and 62–23 = 73% to the over since 1996.
College play Wednesday
Seton Hall vs. Notre Dame - 1.5
O/U 149
Seton Hall vs. Notre Dame
I’ve got an NCAA System that’s 31-7 (82%) on the Fighting Irish.
Play on all teams when the line is +3 to -3 (Notre Dame) - after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games and playing against an opponent after a combined score of 155 or more points in four straight games.
This system is 31–7 = 82% ATS since 1997 including 1–0 ATS this season and 10–0 ATS the past three seasons.
Only official selection today is on Notre Dame –1.5 points
Hodge no dodge
Brad Hodge, the highest runscorer in Twenty20’s short history with 2,547 runs, is expected to open the batting for Kolkata Knight Riders. And with Brendon McCullum not available until April, he can make the position his own. Mercifully, there will be little pressure on him to get the fast starts that he is capable of because Chris Gayle will be at the other end. Hodge is 4.25 with cricketbetlive.com to top score for KKR and 33-1 with Stan James. That has to be worth an each-way wager.
Don't forget Dilshan
It will not surprise you to hear that Hodge has competition. Virender Sehwag 14-1 (Betfred, Blue Sq, Stan James, 888Sport) is the jolly with Sachin Tendulkar 18-1 (Betfred, Blue Sq, Stan James, 888Sport) the second favourite. If we had to go with one of the more fancied hitters, it would have to be Tillakaratne Dilshan at 20-1 (Skybet). The World Twenty20 star can be backed each-way a fifth the first five. 2009 top batsmen: 572 Hayden, 495 Gilchrist, 434 Raina, 418 Dilshan.
Bet
T Dilshan top batsman
1pt each-way Skybet
Khan he be fit?
The top bowler market is far trickier to call. Ideally we want someone who is going to be bowling at the start and end of an innings, when batsmen are taking risks. One of the best around is Zaheer Khan, the Mumbai pacer. His teammate, Lasith Malinga is not bad, either. But there is confusion. Zaheer has only just recovered from a muscle tear and is as big as 25-1 (Bet365), Malinga is market jolly at 14-1 (Stan James). RP Singh, last year’s top man, is 18-1 (Stan James). 2009 top bowler: 23 RP Singh, 21 A Kumble, 19 A Nehra, 18 L Malinga, 18 P Ojha.
Deadly Dirk
Let’s be a bit more original with our bowler selection. Shaun Tait, the Aussie pacer, could be worth following each-way at 18-1 Boyles. He has the fifth best all-time Twenty20 strike rate. Kolkata’s Ajantha Mendis is the fourth highest wicket-taker in internationals and we all know how important spin is in India. And then there’s Dirk Nannes, who won’t appear on many spread sheets because he hasn’t played that often. A brilliant death bowler, Nannes should get plenty of chances at jollies Delhi. Bets
A Mendis top bowler
1pt each-way (1/4, 1,2,3,4) 25-1 Skybet D Nannes top bowler
1pt each-way 25-1 Skybet
KP nuts
Cricketbetlive.com have cast doubt over the impact Kevin Pietersen will have on his IPLteam, the Bangalore Royal Challengers, when he arrives later this month. The firm are betting on how many games Bangalore will win withPietersen in the side after their form was transformed when he left IPL2. Bangalore are 1.90 (10-11) to win under 5.5 games when KP roils intotown after March 24 and 1.90 to win over 5.5.In last year’s IPL, Pietersen played in six matches for Bangalore, losing four. When he left for England, Bangalore won seven from 10 ona run which took them all the way to the final. Will KP drive his teammates nuts once more?
Bets of the rest
Other big prices which have caught our eye include: monster hitter Kieron Pollard 7-2 to be top West Indies bat (Blue Sq, 888Sport), the 5-1 (Stan James) that Brad Hodge is top Australia bat, the 7-2 (Skybet) that Dirk Nannes is top Delhi bowler and the 14-1 (Stan James) that he is top paceman, the 11-4 (Blue Sq, 888Sport) that Ravi Bopara is top English batsman (he is available for the whole tournament), the 7-2 (Stan James) that AB De Villiers is top South Africa bat.
The 2010 Formula One season kicks off this weekend as the teams battle the Sahkir circuit in Bahrain.
The race victory odds are as follows:
Fernando Alonso - 3.75
Lewis Hamilton - 4.33
Sebastian Vettel - 6.00
Michael Schumacher - 7.50
Felipe Massa - 8.00
Jenson Button - 11.00
Mark Webber - 13.00
Nico Rosberg - 19.00
Robert Kubica - 51.00
Kamui Kobayashi - 51.00
Rubens Barrichello - 67.00
Adrian Sutil - 67.00
Pedro de la Rosa - 67.00
Nico Hulkenberg - 101.00
Vitantonio Liuzzi - 151.00
Sebastien Buemi - 151.00
Heikki Kovalainen - 201.00
Jamie Alguersuari - 251.00
Jarno Trulli - 251.00
Timo Glock - 301.00
Vitaly Petrov - 301.00
Lucas di Grassi - 301.00
Bruno Senna - 501.00
Karun Chandhok - 501.00
Of this list only four drivers have won this race since the Bahrain Grand Prix in 2004. Of these four, only two of the drivers have won it twice. And both of these drivers now drive for Ferrari - Fernando Alonso and Felipe Massa. The other two drivers to win are Jenson button (last year) and Michael Schumacher (in 2004).
With the way that the Ferrari has performed in pre-season testing, I would expect that one of the two Ferrari drivers will win this race. Having said that, they do have a lot of competition with Lewis Hamilton, Sebastien Vettel, Mark Webber and the two other winners all very capable of taking the very first twenty-five points available in Formula One.
Like I said, I expect one of the Ferrari drivers to win the race, however i'm not 100% sure which one will take the chequered flag first and because of this, i'm going to hedge my bets and back a Ferrari to win the race @ 2.50.
What other value bets have I found out there for you? Well, this season sees a number of new drivers in the field and the length of the cars has increased to incorporate the new, bigger fuel tanks needed to allow the cars to complete races without stopping, so i'm going to back Two cars to retire on the first lap @ 6.50 despite that only two cars have ever retired on the first lap (in 2007).
Another bet that I think has wonderful potential is that Force India will do better than Renault in the race @ 2.00 (Who will score more points, or should points be level, who has completed the most laps). Force India driver Adrian Sutil has been quoted as saying that this pre-season was "the best pre-season test programme we've ever had" while Robert Kubica, the lead Renault driver, has complained of a lack of grip in the car. With ten places being awarded points this year, I can see Sutil and Vitantonio Liuzzi outscoring Kubica and Vitaly Petrov.
If you have a spare few grand knocking about the place, feel free to lump it on England to win their two-Test series against Bangladesh, which starts on Friday (03.00GMT) in Chittagong. They are an astonishingly generous 2-9 (Skybet) with the hosts an irrelevant 12-1 (Totesport) and the draw 6-1 (Stan James).
This column does not make a habit of exhorting the hobby of buying money but in this case it seems justified. Bangladesh are a terrible, terrible Test team. Sure, we talked them up for the one-day series but that is a different matter.
In 50-over cricket the superior side can make a mistake which they do not have time to recover from. In Test matches, they have a potential five days. Bangladesh have troubled India and New Zealand recently, but only for a handful of sessions and their wait for a genuine and credible series victory over a superpower should last another five years at least.
Somehow Bangladesh have found find time to fight among themselves. Ridiculously they are in turmoil after Raqibul Hasan, the middle-order batsman, was picked for the squad by the selectors and then dropped by the board. He has decided to retire in protest at his treatment. There is no Mashrafe Mortaza, either. He looked the most likely with the ball to cause England’s openers problems.
England are 8-11 with Skybet to win 2-0. That is a price which will satisfy the more cautious punters. Despite having injuries to Ryan Sidebottom and Graham Onions, two key pacemen, what England lack in firepower they more than make up for with the subtle art: spin. Graeme Swann and James Tredwell look like being a tricky pair. A 1-0 win is 3-1 (Bet365).
This blog would not be doing its job if it did not highlight some bigger-priced fancies. And unsurprisingly in a tepid betting heat they come in the form of the series top-bat market. Alastair Cook looks a fine wager at 4-1 (Stan James, Hills). He has little to beat.
Kevin Pietersen averages under 10 on tour, Jonathan Trott is on a horror run and Ian Bell might not fancy the slow wickets. Paul Collingwood has to be respected given his impressive run-getting in the one-day series. He is 5-1 (Blue Sq, 888Sport, Extrabet).
For Bangladesh, we have uncovered some stand-out value. Mushfiqur Rahim, the wicketkeeper, has made the top three of Bangladesh’s top batsmen in four of the last five and looks tasty at 8-1 (Stan James, Hills). Tamim Iqbal, the talented opener, has topped the charts in the last two series. He is 10-3 (Coral) although he faces a stern test against the new ball.
Shakib al Hasan, the skipper, has made the top three three times in the last five and is 9-2 (Hills). But we are desperate to get with him for top Bangla bowler. He is five from the last five but no bookie is brave enough to go up. We’ll keep you posted.
Tim Donaghy is an ex-NBA ref that spent time in the slammer for calling games to help the spread and now he’s written a book where he spills his guts on what goes on behind the scenes in the NBA.
This interview is a sneak preview that a lot of gamblers may find very interesting; you may even want to read it BEFORE placing your bets today!
There is a spot that I started looking at this year.
It rarely comes up; I think it has appeared only 3-4 times this season. I only have partial charts with me, and it is only noted once, on 2/22. It involves team total Under, game total Under and against the team we played Under; it's based on the opposite #'s of the main profile I use with all three of those plays, the one that appears here on a regular basis.
In the chart I have with me the team stayed Under, the game went Over and the team lost, so it hit on 2 of 3. Today it has:
Char Un 95, Char/Phil Un 189', Phil +1'.
We're going to be looking at the odds in both the drivers and constructors championships in the 2010 Formula One season and I'll be letting you know who I think will win the titles and why.
DRIVERS CHAMPIONSHIP:
Fernando Alonso - 3.75
Lewis Hamilton - 4.50
Sebastian Vettel - 5.00
Michael Schumacher - 5.50
Felipe Massa - 9.00
Jenson Button - 11.00
Mark Webber - 15.00
Nico Rosberg - 21.00
Robert Kubica - 41.00
Kamui Kobayashi - 41.00
Rubens Barrichello - 67.00
Nico Hulkenberg - 81.00
Adrian Sutil - 101.00
Pedro De La Rosa - 101.00
Heikki Kovalainen - 151.00
Jarno Trulli - 201.00
Timo Glock - 201.00
Bruno Senna - 201.00
Vitantonio Liuzzi - 201.00
Vitaly Petrov - 201.00
Sebastien Buemi - 251.00
Karun Chandhok - 501.00
Jamie Alguersuari - 501.00
Lucas di Grassi - 501.00
With the way that McLaren improved their car through the 2009 season, I feel that Lewis Hamilton will win the drivers title this season. The McLaren has been quick in pre-season testing and they have the money and ability to make the car go quickly all season long. With Lewis being with McLaren since he was thirteen years old, the team is now based around Lewis and because of this I feel that Button will struggle to retain his title. William Hill agree, having Button at 11.00 to win this season.
If you're looking for someone with longer odds to win the title this season, look no further than Felipe Massa. He will be hungry and highly motivated to win this season after his early exit to the season last year. Also the Ferrari has been quick out of the box and because of this his team-mate, Fernando Alonso, has been installed as the favourite to take his third World Title. Is Felipe Massa so much worse than Alonso that his odds are 9.00 compared to the Spaniards 3.75? No chance, especially as he knows the car and team inside out.
CONSTRUCTORS CHAMPIONSHIP:
Ferrari - 2.75
McLaren - 3.20
Red Bull - 4.00
Mercedes GP - 5.00
Renault - 34.00
Sauber - 34.00
Williams - 41.00
Force India - 67.00
Lotus - 81.00
Toro Rosso - 101.00
Hispania Racing - 101.00
Virgin Racing - 201.00
I have to go with the favourites on this one. For me, Ferrari have the strongest lineup of drivers with Fernando Alonso and Felipe Massa. Jenson Button is the weak link for me with McLaren, as he is stepping into Hamilton's team and the past has shown that if his car is not perfect for Button he cannot get a performance out of the car. With Red Bull it is reliabilty that is the issue. Last season they were running very low on engines at the end of the season and they have had issues in pre-season testing as well. Despite Mercedes being the reigning champions (under the guise of Brawn GP) there are too many questions about the team to back them to win the title.
Some say the secret to good health is balance and Jarvis and Greg start off with a discussion on how bettors can keep cool under pressure during the build up to the March Madness tournament. With the NBA and NHL playoffs just around the corner there is going to be temptation to bet the card but between playing to win vs. playing for action the choice is simple.
NCAAB: Greg likes Notre Dame (-1.5) vs. Seton Hall but also gave a head’s up for an early start Thursday between Wake Forest and Miami. If he can get plus-4 points or more, Greg will have an official play on the Hurricanes.
NBA: The Jazz are hot winning 22-of-27 and 9-of-11 on the road and backed by a system that’s 22-8 ATS the past three seasons Greg is on Utah -6 to get past the Pistons.
NHL: Three of the five lines on tonight’s card favor the home side by -175 or more including Carolina-Washington where the Caps (-285) look to rebound from the upset loss they suffered against Dallas Monday. It’s too much juice for Jarvis’ liking so he invites viewers to stop by the NHL Stadium where numbers are up on all five games.
Click to watch the Daily Line and be sure to tune in every Monday to Friday at 3 pm ET for a look at the top stories in the world of sports betting.
Thomas is starting vs. Gustavsson, Savard is out for Boston and as JD pointed out in his ‘Tues Plays’ thread, both of these teams have had a terrible time finding the net.
- BOS has played under the total 3-straight times and is 0-3-2 O/U in its past five
- BOS has recorded 2 overs, 9 unders and 5 pushes in its past 16 games overall
- TOR has also played under the total 3-straight times and has 1 over to 6 unders in its past seven games
The last two meetings between these teams stayed below the total, including a 3-2 SO win for the Bruins last Thursday (Mar. 4). Before that BOS-TOR went over the total 5 consecutive times and it wasn’t exactly close. Combined scores in those games were 7-9-12-7-13 total goals.
The home team has won each of the past four games in this series and the rivalry is huge but Toronto’s PP has not registered a goal in 5-straight games (0-for-25). Mikhail Grabovski could make his return tonight and the forwards are going to have to crowd the net for TOR while Phaneuf and Kaberle fire at will.
D Chara missed practice this morning and is doubtful, as is D Ference, so the Leafs will have a chance to improve on their 22nd ranked GPG avg but BOS sits in the 8-spot and is looking to create some space in front of idle NYR. (Savard was 2nd on the team in PP goals, Chara was 7th)
The Bruins leader has fallen, the players, coaches and management are choked about it in a huge way and it’s time for the rest of the squad to step up in what has been a 5-month letdown season for them so far. Toronto won’t make it easy and instead of picking sides, I’m playing 1 unit on these teams to make it "Over" 5.5 goals.
Smart Shopper gets the push on SA Un last night, two books had 94 1/2, one had 95; game landed 95; 0-0-1 for the week; today, one game fits parameters for the Over/Under profile play:
Phil/Ind Over 210.
Record for this system is 36-17 overall, 26-11 Over, 10-6 Un.
NBA just announced Granger suspended - Indy's top scorer
My record gets 210 for number, bad buy on my part; for chart, will use current number of 206' .
Real Madrid v Lyon (7.45pm kick-off UK time)
Manchester Utd v AC Milan (7.45pm kick-off UK time)
Lyon’s 1-0 home win over Real Madrid in the Champions League last 16 first leg a fortnight ago was one of the biggest shocks in the competition so far – and the price on the French side finishing the job off and getting through to the quarter-finals looks too big.
Lyon are 2.63 (13/8) outsiders against a Real side at 1.62 (8/13), even though Lyon go into the game on a remarkable run of results having defended superbly in the past month. Claude Puel’s side are unbeaten in seven games – five wins and two draws – and haven’t conceded a goal in their last 620 minutes of competition.
That’s partly down to the brilliance of Hugo Lloris, the France goalkeeper who was so important in his country’s World Cup play-off win over Republic of Ireland four months ago, but it’s also because Cris and Jean-Alain Boumsong are finally playing like team-mates rather than strangers at centre-half. Right-back Anthony Reveillere is having his best season for years, while left-back Aly Cissokho has ousted Gael Clichy as Patrice Evra’s understudy in the France squad.
The problem for Lyon is they’re facing a side with an extraordinary home record: Real Madrid have won 13 out of 13 at the Santiago Bernabeu in the Liga, extending that record when they came from 2-0 down to beat Sevilla 3-2 in a remarkable game on Saturday night. But Real have proved fallible in the Champions League on home soil – Milan won 3-2 there in the group stages last October.
A Lyon goal would leave Real Madrid needing to score three times, and that's a tall order against a side defending so well. That’s why I’m backing Lyon to reach the last eight for the first time since 2006.
Real Madrid players dominate the top of the anytime goalscorer market – Cristiano Ronaldo (1.91 or 10/11), Gonzalo Higuain (2.1 or 11/10), Raul (2.63 or 13/8) and Kaka (2.75 or 7/4) – but there are capable scorers in Lyon’s ranks, too. Lisandro Lopez is an Argentina international with an excellent pedigree in the competition – 18 goals in 34 appearances over the past five season – so he's the most appealing option at 4.5 (7/2).
The second Wednesday night match seems a foregone conclusion: Manchester United carry a 3-2 lead from the San Siro into the second leg v AC Milan at Old Trafford. Wayne Rooney proved the difference between the sides in Italy thanks to his two headed goals, and he’s the player most likely to find the net in the second meeting. Given his current form, it’s surprising to find Rooney as big as 2.1 (11/10) to score, although doubts over his fitness going into the match may explain the price.
There’s no value on United in betting on United to get through the tie (1.08 or 1/12) or win in 90 minutes (1.75 or 3.4), so goals offer better value. Both sides’ defending was pretty poor in the first leg, and Milan's style of play is likely to make the second leg an open encounter because they need to score at least twice to stand any chance of getting through.
Over 2.5 goals is worth considering at 1.91 (10/11), while both teams to score is 1.80 (4.5). But by far the best bet is the second-half having more than 1.5 goals. As time runs out, Milan will become more desperate to get back into the game and throw caution to the wind. I expect spaces to open up at both ends of the pitch, creating more and more scoring chances. The price of 2.00 (evens) on the game having two goals after half-time is too good to miss.
Recommended bets:
2pts Manchester Utd v AC Milan second-half over 1.5 goals @ 2.00 (evens)
1.5pt Lyon to qualify v Real Madrid @ 2.63 (13/8)
1pt Lisandro Lopez (Lyon) to score anytime at Real Madrid @ 4.5 (7/2)
Only two games on the ice tonight. In WSH, Ovechkin’s 6-game scorless streak is starting to look like a volcano that’s waiting to erupt. I saw a montage on the NHL Network the other night of Ovi falling down, stumbling around in one of his games since the Olympics and he’s just not back yet. One of these games he’s going to go off and with a line like this, DAL-WSH has little appeal to me side or total.
How about Theodore, though, the other day against the NYR? It was his first shutout of the season and he’s now recorded 14-straight decisions without a loss in regulation (12-0-2).
Still, LWL has Varlamov listed as the starter tonight vs. Turco.
WSH is going for a new franchise record for consecutive wins at home and in this winnable game maybe they want their ‘guy’ (Varlamov) to get the glory.
Columbus at Los Angeles
Line: Kings -190
Over/Under: 5.5 UN -130
Thought about playing the Kings in regulation in this one but price is still high (-138). Quick is not confirmed but Mason will get the nod for the Jobs.
You relax one minute against the Kings and they can make you pay. Even if it’s just a sloppy/lazy penalty, LAK on open ice will tear the Jackets mid-pack penalty kill apart. LAK are 3-of-7 on the PP in the past two matchups vs. CBJ, however in the past three matchups vs. LAK the Jobs have consistently reduced the number of chances they are giving (5-4-3).
Kings motivation could come into question. They have a trip to CHI on-deck for Wednesday followed by a divisional tilt vs. DAL on Friday. LAK has no chance in catching the Sharks and Columbus is a non-factor blip the Kings have beaten by 3-plus goals in the past two matchups.
Kings do want two points, though, and if I was betting this game it would be on LAK in regulation.
Only made one play in hoops for Monday, posted up in the NCAA stadium but I’ve got some numbers for the NBA that you guys might be able to use.
Dallas – 7 at Minnesota, O/U 207.
One of my first-half systems says to play on home underdogs in the first half (Minnesota) after one or more consecutive losses when playing against an opponent with 9 or more consecutive wins. This system is 28–2 = 93% ATS the past five seasons including 18–1 ATS in the last three years.
Just an opinion but I like the Timberwolves +3.5 in the first half and could possibly see this line hitting +4.
San Antonio at Cleveland lines are so dependent on James. I have a top opinion on the Cavs laying up to -6 points but only if James starts. In both meetings last year the Cavs easily dispatched of the Spurs, 101–81 at home and 97–86 on the road and even without James I think the book has adjusted the line too far but I will likely stay away from this game.
Had a nice win with Kansas on the weekend and I have an NCAA System that’s 24-4 this season on the first-half for this game Monday.
Play Neutral court teams under the total (IUPUI) in any tournament semi-final game with a winning record on the season when playing another winning team. This system is 124-242 = 66% to the under the past five seasons including 4-24 to the under this season.
An official selection for me is on Oral Roberts and IUPUI to play under the first half total of 62 points.
Will also watch the Cleveland LeBron's line just before game time as the anointed one is a game-time decision. If he sits, the total should drop and Spurs will be favored. Current line on the menu is Clev -2.5 (191.5).
I would look to parlay the Cavs total (if it moves) with the Captials game over 5.5 as the current line is 6.5 -120 over.
Here’s a betting conundrum for you. A fortnight ago, Arsenal lost 2-1 at FC Porto in the first leg of their Champions League last 16 tie. On the same night, Fiorentina lost 2-1 away to Bayern Munich. Two identical results, then, on the same night – yet going into Tuesday night’s second legs Arsenal are 1.85 (17/20) favourites to get past Porto while Fiorentina are a massive 3.50 (5/2) to knock out Bayern.
Can the bookies’ usual bias towards English sides – partly because of the weight of money English sides attract – wholly explain the price differential? In a word – yes. Arsenal’s superior European pedigree in comparison to Fiorentina in recent seasons may play a small part in the Gunners’ favouritism, but it’s nowhere near enough to explain such a large difference in odds.
The favourable price on Fiorentina is why I back them to get through to the quarter-finals even though Bayern hold a 2-1 advantage. The Germans were lucky to win the first encounter, with most neutral observers feeling la Viola were worthy of at least a point.
The negative against the Italians is their appalling current form: they’ve lost seven of their last 10 matches in all competitions, which is why they’re in the bottom half of Serie A (11th). But they showed enough quality in that first leg at the Allianz-Arena to suggest they can cause an upset – or at the very least take Bayern to extra-time, thereby presenting you with an opportunity to lay off your bet.
A better wager on the game, however, is over 2.5 goals. Thirteen of Fiorentina’s last 17 matches (76%) in all competitions have had over 2.5 goals in 90 minutes, with goals at both ends. Eleven of Bayern’s last 15 games (73%) in all competitions have had over 2.5 goals, too – so you’re getting value for money from a price of 1.9 (9/10) on over 2.5 goals.
In north London, Cesc Fabregas will be missing because of a hamstring injury, making Arsenal’s task harder as they look to overturn a 2-1 first-leg deficit against the 2004 competition winners. Porto have a fabulous European pedigree and played some good football in the first leg – although Lukasz Fabianski’s dreadful errors were the main reason why Arsenal flew back from Portugal having suffered a defeat in the first game.
Porto’s form at the Emirates Stadium is dire – they’ve conceded six without managing to score in two visits. I certainly fancy Arsenal to score, although they may need three to get through the tie, as Porto certainly look good enough to find the target.
Over 2.5 goals is 1.83 (5/6) although both teams to score is potentially a better option at 1.85 (17/20). With the second bet, you cover the 1-1. So the only reason to back over 2.5 goals rather than both teams to score is if you feel a 3-0 Arsenal win is more likely than the 1-1 90-minute scoreline.
I’d place small stakes on Arsenal 2-1 and 3-1 winning scorelines, because I expect Arsene Wenger to recognise attack is their best form of defence. Split your stakes across those two scorelines at 9.00 (8/1) and 15.00 (14/1) respectively.
Recommended bets:
2pts Fiorentina v Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals @ 1.83 (5/6)
1pt Fiorentina to qualify v Bayern Munich @ 3.50 (5/2)
0.5pt Arsenal 2-1 winning scoreline v FC Porto @ 9.00 (8/1)
0.5pt Arsenal 3-1 winning scoreline v FC Porto @ 15.00 (14/1)
The jokes are always lame, the musical dance numbers boring, and the results (the winners) are always obvious.And when they are over, I always feel the need to shower, and to remind myself – “get a life!”
The worst part is the red carpet - not the stars, but the interviewers. Last night the network employed the "anybody has to be better than Joan Rivers or Kathie Griffin" theory, and used some new lady, who spent every minute on camera in a sideways stance, addressing the viewers over her left shoulder, a bigger poser than the stars themselves. I learned later that it was Kathy Ireland, who used to be hot but is now unrecognizable.
I have long held the opinion that the majority of viewers of the Oscars are people who lead empty lives and have illusions of grandeur, fantasies of stardom.And last night, I joined them.
Why?
Is my social life in the toilet?Is my professional world unfulfilling?Am I a desert wasteland, creative-wise?
No, I watched because I had money riding on it!
I only made three bets.I took AVATAR as best picture, Cameron as best director and Meryl Streep as best actress. And, I got shut out.
I didn’t see any of the movies I wagered on, my bets were made on what I thought was common sense, which, in reality turned out to be nonsense.
First up – Meryl.I had the actor that has the record for the most nominations, against a schlub whose ‘talent’ screams CASTING COUCH!”And I was getting underdog odds.To support my theory on Sandra as non-Thespian, I point to the fact that she was also nominated for a Razzy as worst actress of the year. Though I didn’t see the “Blind Side” flick I saw the clips – the only things worse than her fake blonde hair was her phony Southern accent.Turns out, the Academy has no taste.Or a casting couch of their own.Loss numero uno.
Next up – best director.I’m liking my pick.I have James Cameron, a man whose movie made more money than any other film in history.And he’s up against the director of a war movie that no one saw (not even in the top 25 at the box office.)How could Hollywood turn its back on the guy who singlehandedly kept them from suffering the consequences of this down economy?Then the announcer who introduces the next presenter mentions that the Best Director category has candidates that may be firsts – the first woman to win Best Director, and the first African American.No worries for me.Then he introduces the presenter – famous Liberal and women’s rights advocate Babs Streisand.Do I really need to wait for her to open the envelope?No.0-2.
Best Picture – My last chance for a win.Cameron got screwed in the Best Director category so they have to give him this one, right?Wrong.He loses.To add injury to insult he loses to his ex-wife, who also had just bested him as winner of Best Director. I am 0-3.
I went bust at the Oscars.
It is a sad day.
I lost my money, three hours of my life, and my dignity.
This game is a replay of the FA Cup Quarter Final on Saturday lunchtime that saw Portsmouth emerge with a 2-0 victory and a trip to Wembley to face either Fulham or Spurs in the Semi Finals. In that game Birmingham were denied a clear goal and I feel that that will fire them up for revenge in this match. However, Birmingham have not being playing well recently on the road, so their confidence will not be high.
Back the draw in this game @ 3.20 and split your stakes on the correct scores of 0-0 @ 8.50 and 1-1 @ 5.50.
At the start of the season Sunderland were flying high near the top of the table, but they have come crashing down the league very rapidly and they now sit only three points above the relegation zone. They have failed to win in their last six home league games, with five draws and a loss to their name from those games. Bolton picked up their first league win away from the Reebok Stadium since September at the weekend and have moved above Sunderland into thirteenth.
Bolton will be confident going into this match after their weekend win, but I feel the game will end level so back the draw @ 3.20 and split your stakes on the correct scores of 0-0 @ 9.50 and 1-1 @ 5.50 as five of the last six home games that Sunderland have played have ended in these scorelines.
WEDNESDAY:
19:45 - Burnley v Stoke City: 2.40 - 3.10 - 2.60
Burnley are another team in freefall after a promising start to the season. While they have only picked up one point on the road their home form was keeping them out of trouble until recently. However, their home form has declined now too and they are second bottom of the league. This is a must win game for them. Unfortunately for Burnley I cannot see them winning this match, despite Stoke having won only once in their last eight away games.
Back Stoke to win the match @ 2.60 with more than 2.5 goals to be scored @ 2.15.
There are four Champions League games being played this mid-week. Who will win these second leg ties and progress to the Quarter Finals? Check out the fixture list, the match odds and my previews here:
TUESDAY:
19:45 - Arsenal v Porto: 1.50 - 3.60 - 5.50
Arsenal trail Porto 2-1 going into the second leg of this tie, but have won twenty of the twenty-three games that they have played at the Emirates Stadium this season in all competitions. As well as this Arsenal have not lost at home to a non-English side since September 2003, while Porto have not ever won in their fourteen matches played in England, with a record of two draws and twelve losses.
Back Arsenal to qualify @ 1.61 with there to be more than 2.5 goals in the game @ 1.73.
The first leg of this tie saw Bayern Munich take a 2-1 victory in controversial fashion, as Fiorentina were reduced to ten men when they did not deserve to and the winning goal was scored from a clearly offside position. This game promises to be another tight game and I feel that the game will finish as a draw despite Fiorentina losing four of their last six home games and Bayern being undefeated in their last nine away games.
Back the draw @ 3.20 with both sides to score @ 1.67.
WEDNESDAY:
19:45 - Manchester United v AC Milan: 1.57 - 3.50 - 5.00
Manchester United brought back a 3-2 advantage over the Italians back from the San Siro after some great attacking and dismal defending. As I write this Utd's talisman Wayne Rooney looks to be out of this game with injury and that could spell disaster for them. However, both Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic will be fit for the game and that will give the English side some well needed defensive solidarity.
How will the game go? Utd have won their last five home games and four of these have been to nil. AC Milan have failed to score in three of their last five away games. I recommend backing Manchester United to win to nil @ 2.62 with there being less than 2.5 goals scored @ 1.95.
19:45 - Real Madrid v Lyon: 1.25 - 5.00 - 8.00
I was shocked at the way that Real Madrid performed in the first leg of this tie. They played terribly and deserved to lose the match. Lyon are in great form and are unbeaten in their last seven matches and have not conceded a goal in their last six games. However, facing Real Madrid at the Bernabéu is a daunting task. Real have won their last eleven games at home and have only lost once in their last eighteen games, winning all others.
Opta say: Lyon are unbeaten in their five encounters against Real Madrid (three wins, two draws). During that time, the seven-time French champions have never failed to score against the Merengues.
With this information, I will be backing the draw @ 5.00 with both sides to score @ 2.05.
Even having the right call for ‘Picture of the Year’ didn’t pay off last night for Jarvis at the Oscars so he decides to stick with sports, recapping some of the top NFL signings, NASCAR news and a bit of disturbing info from the world of boxing.
NCAAB: Greg has a 24-4 first-half system play in effect for Oral Roberts vs. IUPUI calling for an "Under" 62. The guys also discuss a few of the other games on the card with opinions and systems that are posted in the stadiums.
NBA: Five games on hardcourt tonight and after major line movement in Cleveland, Greg suggests oddsmakers may have gone too far. He also highlights a 28-2 system that’s "live" tonight in the Dallas-Minnesota game and if the line improves, may have a play on the T-Wolves in the first-half. Currently the Wolves are getting plus-3.5 but Greg wants a minimum of plus-4 before making anything official.
NHL: With only two games on the card Jarvis is backing off in hockey but Greg has one play on Dallas-Washington "Over" 6.5 goals.
Watch the Daily Line live every Monday-Friday at 3 pm ET or access the show at anytime in the video department at BetRepublic.com.
It hasn’t quite reached the one-sidedness of the Globetrotters against the Generals, but is fast approaching it.JJ won the Sprint Cup Championship last year.It was his fourth Cup, his fourth straight Cup win. And he has started this season in blistering fashion, winning two of the first three races.
This is bad news for a sport that is clawing to maintain its fan base, and even worse news for a sport trying to expand its base.Competition is what spurs interest; lack of competition equates to lack of interest.
Before this season started, NASCAR instituted rule changes to increase the drama of racing.Tracks were encouraged to do the same – make changes designed to up the excitement level.All this goes for naught if Jimmy Johnson continues to win, and after winning his fourth straight Cup last season he has gone on to win two of the first three races this season.The only race he didn’t win, Daytona, came at the expense of a broken axle.Had it not been for that impairment, who knows – Jimmy may have been 3-0.And that works contrary to the expansion efforts of the sport, in an important year, with the economy down and fears of interest having peaked.
It may not be as big a problem if it was someone else running away from the field.When Jeff Gordon was at his best and winning at an extraordinary rate, the sport didn’t suffer for it – because he was both loved and loathed.People came to the track, and tuned in on the tube, to cheer him to the checkered flag, or root for him to crash.But Johnson is vanilla – he is liked; he is respected.But he is neither loved nor hated.The more he wins, the more he amazes with his skills, his car and his team.But he does not sell tickets.He is not the most popular driver – Junior is.He is not the most hated driver – Kyle Busch is.Johnson may be first across the finish line, but he is middle of the road as far as generating ticket sales.And that’s bad business for NASCAR.Someone has to step up and challenge him - a sport with no rivalries is not really a sport at all.
On to today’s race.Atlanta can be one of the most boring tracks on the circuit, so don’t look for crashes to help or hurt your chances of cashing in a winner.Junior has been running well all week long, so I was going to avoid betting against him as usual, but no matter - two major books are not even offering him in a match up – what’s up with that??!!Harvick has been good to me, winning all three match-ups I selected him for, but his only matchup today is against Stewart at -140, and that’s too frigging high.In fact, most matchups have high priced favs this week, in match-ups against real dogs, so it’s slim pickings.I have never stared at a card as long as this one, and still come up empty, so, just one play this weekend.
Kyle Busch -110 over Jeff Gordon, $110 to win $100.
Strictly a rooting interest wager.
Record: 4-4, -$180. Split last week, Harvick finsihed 2nd and won my matchup, but Kurt Bush was right up front with a fast car when engine trouble screwed him. And me!
The pre-season testing has now been completed and this time next week all of the Formula One teams will be set up and ready to go for the first race of the 2010 Formula One season in Bahrain. In this article I’ll be previewing the upcoming season and providing you with some season long bets.
VAN had its wakeup call Friday night in CHI against a true playoff calibre team after easing back in after the break vs. CBJ and DET.
Not saying the Red Wings won’t make the playoffs – they played a statement game themselves Friday vs. NSH – they just weren’t prepared for VAN the way CHI was. (Perhaps the Wings were caught ‘looking ahead’ past VAN to NSH?)
So which VAN team shows up Sunday for an early start in the Music City?
VAN played a day game on Feb. 6 at Boston (waaaayyyy back when this ridiculous road trip was in its infancy). The final in this game was 3-2 VAN in a shootout after the 'Nucks recovered from an early 2-0 deficit.
After all they’ve been through, it’s tough to see them having same ability to constantly answer back in games where the `Nucks fall behind early.
- Preds D-man Weber is expected to miss this game after getting hurt in first period vs. DET.
- Not sure who will start for either team in net. Ellis lost at DET but kept the score from getting out of hand. Lou was pulled vs. CHI but the refs made a mockery of that game early and called everything except the goaltender interference, which Lou made very apparent was getting under his skin. Should see him back in net but he hasn’t historically done well in day games.
Here are the career numbers for Lou Fat Goalie posted before that Boston game:
Going back to 2002 he is 5-8-4 with 44 goals against in that span (2.58 GAA)
With VAN: 1-0 Loss Everything below this was with Florida.
4-3 shootout win
6-4 win
4-1 Loss
5-2 Loss
2-0 Win
2-1 Win
1-1 TIE
1-1 TIE
4-1 Loss
6-5 Loss OT
3-0 Win
3-3 TIE
4-1 Loss
4-2 Loss
7-1 Loss
No play for me yet; lean towards the under. Goalie, you playing anything on this game?
First opportunity with this successful system since the Olympic break.
Four games in play on the Point Spread. Sens -210 and Caps -260 today; Flyers -235 and Devils -210 Sunday. I have created one 4, and a number of 3 and 2 game parlays with the above games.
You just have to lay the half goal i.e. your team has to win in regulation or in OT. Shoot-outs do not count toward the result.
Two early games today and the Dallas at PGH game just got underway. The Pens were amped for their game at NYR Thursday, winning 5-4, but for some reason I don’t see them getting quite so pumped vs. the Stars. Book had them at -230 and against one of the worst road teams in hockey the Pens should earn two points but I didn’t touch it.
Boston (-145) is at NYI for the second day game, the Bruins looking to maintain their position just inside the playoff bubble and Isles trying to decide which is more important, a high draft pick or finishing the season on a high note.
The NYI have won 2-straight vs. the Bruins and took BOS to a shootout in the first meeting of the season and will try to play BOS tough but revenge could be a factor here as well.
This is the first of 7-straight road games for BOS. They went 4-0 in a road trip just before the break but 3-of-4 wins were vs. non-PO teams and the fourth (BUF) was in a shootout.
PP was 1-6 in the four-game road trip and is only 1-7 in two games since (TOR, MTL) but the Isles have the NHL’s second worst PK unit (75%) so the door is open for the Bruins to shape up and take this game down.
Thomas will start for the Bruins and it’s a toss up with NYI. Rolly the Goalie was yanked early vs. ATL the other night and Biron was average as usual in relief.
BOS (2.32) is last is the league in goals but the NYI aren’t much better (27th with 2.5 GPG).
BOS did nothing to shore up its scoring at the deadline but could get Bergeron (groin) back.
Given BOS’s road play against sub-par opponents and their position in the PO race I’m taking the Bruins to start their trip off on win this game.
Hit with LAL game Under last night, in my favorite subset of the system - the Under play (not as high % as Over this year, but a longer history of high %)
Over/Under profile is 36-17 now, 26-11 Over, 10-6 Under, that's 68% with over 50 plays now.
Today, nothing fits that system, but we have one in the team Under/game Under/side; records are:
team Under 25-13, game Un 23-14, side 23-15
corrected: 26-13 team
Tonight's play is LAC Un 96, LAC/Utah Un 205', Utah -14
Off a couple NBA winners in the other system, I'll lay off this one, especially since LAC went 0-3 in this spot on Monday, and Utah is a scoring machine when they are in the groove.
Two plays "live" in my CDC profile for Friday and they are both calling for overs.
Philadelphia at Buffalo
Line: Sabres -125
Over/Under: 5’ UN -115
Leighton vs. Miller in net and the Sabres trying to do what the Panthers did vs. Philly on Wed. – bust out of a scoring funk. It may happen but seven goals would be a stretch. The last time PHI allowed 7 was Jan. 3 at OTT and in the nine games before FLA not one team has managed more than two goals against the Flyers.
System play is on the "Over" 5.5 (-105)
Minnesota at Edmonton
Line: MIN -180
Over/Under: 5’ OV -130
This play was a winner yesterday when it called for an "Over" between TB and WSH, improving to 8-1 O/U in Week 1 the past two seasons.
- MIN has played over the total 4-straight times on the road when following a road game with at least one day of rest in-between.
Vancouver at Chicago
Line: CHI -155
Over/Under: 5’ UN -115
Canucks going for third straight win since the Olympics. They are 6-4-0 in past 10 on the road and after tonight still have stops in Nashville, Colorado and Phoenix before heading back to Canada Hockey Place.
The Blackhawks have split two games since the break, losing a road decision against the New York Islanders on Tuesday and coming back with Wednesday's slow and methodical win against Edmonton.
Cristobal Huet picked up the win with a 12-save performance for Chicago and he better be ready for a little more action tonight.
- VAN is 12th in the league averaging 30.5 shot per game (EDM is 28th)
The Canucks have taken two of three from Chicago this year and tonight marks the final regular season matchup between the clubs.
In their previous visit to CHI the Canucks directed 31 SOG and in the two games played in VAN they managed 30 and 28 shots.
If I were betting this game I would take CHI in regulation but VAN is hard to read right now. Going to lay off, watch the action and stick with my original plan for CHI which is finding spots to fade them in the back-half of March.
Scaling things back today with just one play on MIN-EDM “Over" 5.5.
The Wild are on the outside of the bubble looking in, EDM has nothing left to lose and after registering just a dozen shots at CHI the other night we should see a much more wide open gameplan (which will probably present Minny with plenty of scoring chances).
Split last night in the NBA when Phoenix couldn’t hold on in the fourth, getting outscored 41-22. Have two plays for tonight on the Over/Under.
Golden State at Atlanta.
After a blowout loss by 20 or > points, play any team under the total when they’re an excellent offensive team scoring 102 or more PPG, (Golden State,) and they’re matched up against an average defensive team that allows between 92-98 PPG. This system is 54 – 18 = 75% to the under since 1996 including 7 out of 9 to the under this season and 35–10 to the under the last three seasons.
My first selection is on Golden State and Atlanta to play under the total of 213.
Indiana at Denver.
After a blowout loss by 20 or > points, play teams that allow an average of 103+ PPG under the total when the O/U is 210 or greater. This system is 29–66 = 70% to the under including 10–3 to the under this season. An official selection on Indiana and Denver to play under 220.
NBA Best of the Rest – First half systems for Friday
Cleveland minus the points in the first half. (52–20 = 72 last 5 seasons & 6–2 ATS this season.)
Celtics/76ers, 31–85 = 70% under since 1996 including 7–2 to the under this season.
Thunder/Clippers, 62 – 120 = 66% to the under since 1996 including 7–2 to the under this season.
Had a nice win with Penn State last night and sticking with the dogs for Friday.
Santa Clara at San Diego – 4
Play against Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick when they’re a terrible offensive team scoring 63 or less PPG, (San Diego,) when playing against an average defensive team (one allowing 67-74 PPG), after a combined score of 125 points or lower.
This system is 41–16 = 72% ATS since 1997.
These two met in a Neutral site game last year on March 7th the line was pick ’em and Santa Clara won 80– 69. Here’s hoping history repeats itself as I have a play on Santa Clara +4.
NCAA Best of the Rest (opinions only)
I show Tennessee Tech and Morehead State sailing over the total.
I show James Madison covering vs. Drexel.
I also have Cal Riverside covering the number vs. Long Beach State.
I can't believe I just caught myself reading an interview with those green guys that get a kick out of trying to drive the opposition nuts at Vancouver home games.
Serie A returns this weekend with a full round of ten matches. Who will take the points this Saturday and Sunday? Check out the fixture list, the match odds and my best bets here:
SATURDAY
17:00 - Fiorentina v Juventus: 2.50 - 3.10 - 2.70
19:45 - Roma v AC Milan: 2.30 - 3.20 - 2.90
SUNDAY:
14:00 - Atalanta v Udinese: 2.30 - 3.10 - 3.00
14:00 - Bari v Chievo: 1.95 - 3.25 - 3.60
14:00 - Bologna v Napoli: 2.87 - 3.00 - 2.40
14:00 - Cagliari v Catania: 1.95 - 3.20 - 3.75
14:00 - Palermo v Livorno: 1.50 - 3.60 - 6.50
14:00 - Sampdoria v Lazio: 2.10 - 3.10 - 3.40
14:00 - Siena v Parma: 2.10 - 3.20 - 3.25
19:45 - Inter Milan v Genoa: 1.40 - 4.00 - 7.50
BETS:
Roma to beat AC Milan @ 2.30
Roma have won their last nine home league games and know that a win in this game will put them level on points with Milan in second place in the league. AC Milan have only lost once in their last ten away games (v Inter Milan) but have not always shown up on the road, as the draws with Atalanta and Bologna have proven. I feel that Roma should win this game.
More than 2.5 goals to be scored in the Fiorentina v Juventus game @ 2.10
Both of these teams are not performing well at the moment. They are shipping goals, but they are scoring goals as well. Four of Fiorentina's last five home games have had over 2.5 goals in them as have three of Juve's last five away games. Because of the poor defending and reasonable scoring records of these teams I feel that there will be at least three goals in this game.
Palermo to beat Livorno to nil @ 1.95
Palermo are yet to lose at home this season and have won their last six straight games, with three of them to nil. Two of the three games that they won to nil were against sides in the bottom three, just as Livorno are. I feel that Palermo will win to nil again in this match.
Both teams to score in the Sampdoria v Lazio game @ 2.00
Sampdoria have only failed to score at home on twice in the twelve games they have played this season. Lazio have come out of their poor scoring run, where they scored in only three of their first seven away games. They have scored in their four of their last five away games. Neither side is that defensively secure so I feel that they will both score in this one.
18:00 - Athletic Bilbao v Valladolid: 1.73 - 3.40 - 4.50
20:00 - Real Zaragoza v Atletico Madrid: 2.50 - 3.20 - 2.62
MONDAY:
20:00 - Valencia v Racing Santander: 1.57 - 3.60 - 5.50
BETS:
Over 3.5 goals in the Real Madrid v Sevilla match @ 2.25
There have been twenty-one goals in Real Madrid's last five home league matches, with the Real scoring nineteen of them. Sevilla have been knocking goals in on the road, scoring eight in their last five away games, and I feel that they can score against an occasionally leaky Real defence.
More than 2.5 goals to be scored in the Mallorca v Sporting Gijon game @ 2.05
All five of Sporting Gijon's last five away league games have had at least three goals in them. Sporting Gijon have also scored in all of those five games. Of the eleven games that Mallorca have played at home this season when both sides have scored in a match then the game has had more than 2.5 goals. I feel that Gijon can score and the game will have at least three goals.
Espanyol to beat Villarreal @ 2.40
Of their last five home league games, Espanyol have won four of them and drawn the other game. Villarreal are the exact opposite on the road - losing the last four and drawing the previous one of their last five away league games. Villarreal have conceded fifteen goals in these last four losing matches, while Espanyol have kept three clean sheets in their five matches.
Athletic Bilbao -1 on the match handicap market v Real Valladolid @ 3.10
Bilbao have won their last four home matches, while Valladolid have failed to win away from home in their last ten games, losing six of those matches. Bilbao have started to score goals again at home, with ten goals scored in their last four home games while Valladolid have not scored more than one goal away from home since October. As well as this Bilbao have won their last two home games against Valladolid 2-0, so I feel that they can win this game by two goals.
The top sporting action comes from the most prestigious cup competition in British football – The FA Cup. This weekend sees the four Quarter Final matches being played with the winners going to Wembley for the Semi Final games.
France's second division is hardly noted as a high-scoring league - and one game where I feel there will be particularly few goals tonight is Ajaccio v Vannes.
Ajaccio have recorded impressive victories in their last two games, beating league leaders Caen 2-0 a fortnight ago before defeating Tours 3-1 last weekend - but if you watched both games you'd have seen defensive errors accounted for three of Ajaccio's five goals. When opponents weren't handing them opportunities on a plate, Ajaccio really struggled to break down defences in both games, which is in keeping with the way they've played all season. Ajaccio lack a top-class creative midfielder, and no player has managed more than six goals this season.
Vannes manager Stephane Le Mignan has said he wants his side to play tonight like they have in their last two away games - which means there'll be little entertainment on show. Vannes won 1-0 at Le Havre before drawing 0-0 at Chateauroux in their last away game, which was quite possibly the most boring Ligue 2 match of the season. Vannes' only aim in only their second-ever Ligue 2 campaign is to stay out of the relegation zone - and, sitting four points above the bottom three at the moment, they're happy to draw their way to safety.
Correct-score punters should consider 0-0 (6.50 or 11/2) and 1-0 (8.50 or 15/2) scorelines, while under 2.25 goals is my selection at 1.80 (4/5)
Bastia remain rooted to the foot of the table but have played better football in recent weeks than Chateauroux, their hosts this evening. Indeed, Chateauroux's form is so unimpressive - just one point from 12 - that coach Jean-Pierre Papin has said he'll quit if they lose tonight. The former Ballon d'Or winner has been in charge for just seven games but says his players have an attitude problem and called their limp 2-0 defeat at relegation rivals Istres last weekend "unacceptable".
The mood in the Bastia camp is far more upbeat despite their lowly position, and in Pierre-Yves Andre (10 goals) and Xavier Pentecote (two from three starts since signing on loan from Ligue 1 Toulouse two months ago) they have two strikers equipped to take advantage not only of Chateauroux's low morale but also their selection problems: their first-choice goalkeeper and two defenders are missing tonight. Back Bastia with a +0.25-goal start on the Asian handicap at 2.0 (evens).
Brest suffered a rare slip-up at home to Sedan (1-3) last weekend but I expect them to bounce back tonight. That was their first defeat in 12 games but centre-half Ahmed Kantari returns to bolster their defence and Nolan Roux will be full of enthusiasm and excitement after scoring two goals on his France U21 debut against Croatia three days ago.
Brest haven't lost an away game in more than six months - their last defeat came on August 21 last year - so I'm backing them to extend their 10-game unbeaten run on the road tonight. Support Brest with a 0-goal start on the Asian handicap at mid-table Clermont at 2.1 (11/10). You'll get your stakes back if the game ends in a draw, and make a profit if Brest win.
Recommended bets:
2pts Ajaccio v Vannes under 2.25 goals @ 1.8 (4/5)
2pts Brest +0 Asian handicap at Clermont @ 2.1 (11/10)
1.5pts Bastia +0.25 Asian handicap at Chateauroux @ 2.0 (evens)
If you thought betting the Olympics were fun why not take a chance on picking ‘Film of the Year’? Odds on the Oscar’s are up at online sportsbooks and after a brief discussion, Jarvis and Greg’s lack of entertainment culture became quite apparent.
That’s okay; we know what you’re here for...
NCAA: Greg nailed his play on Penn State yesterday and is back with another potential underdog tonight in the Santa Clara-San Diego matchup. Backed by a 72-percent system, Greg likes Santa Clara (+4).
NBA: It’s all about the totals in pro hoops and Greg has two picks from the Friday card.
- Take Golden State-Atlanta "Under" 213 and take Indiana-Denver "Under" 220.
For numbers and systems to back these plays we invite you to check out the NBA Stadium.
NHL: The guys run the card offering opinions on all five matchups, including a conflict on how many goals to expect in the Philadelphia-Buffalo contest. Bragging rights are sure to be on full display later in the NHL Stadium.
To watch today’s Daily Line you can click here and to see the show live watch from Monday to Friday at 3 pm ET at BetRepublic.com.
Premier League Preview Show
Hosts James Eastham and former footballer Steve Claridge give out their top tips for this weekend's Premier League and FA Cup games.
Daily Line - Mar 4
Jarvis and Greg Dempson give out their top plays from today's NCAA basketball, NBA and NHL cards.
Hey guys, had a bit of rough day yesterday, losing both plays. Who would have thought that the better of the two teams to bet (between Florida and the Wings) would be the Panthers – BY A MILE!
That 7-goal performance matched Florida’s total offense from the last 5 games combined!
*Personal note: The only other time FLA scored 7 goals this season they followed it with a 3-1 record their next four)
The salami also missed so my post-Oly start is blah but one of the profiles I’ve used for the past three seasons begins today and I’ve made three 1-unit plays.
Penguins-Rangers "Under" 5.5 UN -120
Lightning-Capitals "Over" 6.5 -115
Kings-Predators "Under" 5.5 UN -130
This profile kicks in the day after the trade deadline (just for consistency reasons) and in Week 1 of 2009 it went 7-1 when betting the over (2-0 O/U on Day 1). The under only offers a fraction of the plays but it was still 5-2 two plays are "live" today and I like the setup so I bet them.
Lean a little bit more to the Pens-Rangers game than I do the Kings-Preds but played both for 1-unit.
Penn State + 13 at Michigan State, O/U 132 at 7:00 ET
Play against favorites of 10 or more points that's winning between 60 to 80% of their games, (Michigan State) after going under the total by 24 or more combined points in their last three games and playing a team that's winning between 20 to 40% of their games.
This system is 86-48 = 64% ATS the last 5 seasons. Penn State is 4-9 st. up away but 9-4 ATS while Michigan State is 13-2 st. up at home but 4-10 ATS. The Nittany Lions have won three of their last four and I made this line - 11 points.
An official selection on Penn State + 13.
BEST of the Rest! (Opinions only)
*****UCLA/Arizona under 64 in the 1st half. (5-0 system under this season and 3-29 to the under last 5 seasons.)
Providence + 11.
Richmond at - 4, I thought the line should be - 2.
USC/Arizona State over 110. (System that's 54-23 to the over including 7-4 TY & 40-16 last 3 years.
Oregon + 5, I thought the Ducks should be getting 7 or more points.
S. Illinois/Drake under 134. (System at 6-0 under TY & 27-76 UN last 5 seasons. The total's moving wrong way and I show 138 points.
Memphis Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls - 5.5, O/U 2.2.5.
Injuries are a big factor in this first game and I don’t have an official play but there is system on the fav. Play on home favorite's who are playing with two days rest after an upset loss by 15 or more points as a favorite. This system is 27-5 = 84% ATS the last five seasons including 18-2 = 90% ATS the past three seasons.
Joakim Noah's out. Luol Deng missed last game, probable tonight, (Knee.) Derrick Rose injured last game, probable tonight, Knee.)
If Deng and Rose start, I'll strongly consider the Bulls at - 5.5 points.
LA Lakers - 5 at Miami Heat, O/U 189.
Kobe's in a slump of late, Derek Fisher has been mired in a year long slump and this is a tough spot for LA as the Miami Heat have played the Lakers tough. The last three games in this series have been decided by 3 or less points. The Lakers are 11 - 15 ATS on the road plus there is a home dog system that is 69-34 = 67% ATS since 1996, and I have an official selection on the Miami Heat + 5.
Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns - 1.5, O/U 213.
The Jazz are 6 - 10 st. up in games decided by 5 or less points, three of those losses came in their last 5 games. Steve Nash leads the league in assists averaging 11.2 per game and he had 15 the last time they played the Jazz.
NBA System is to play on home teams (Suns) after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams, winning 60% to 75% of their games. This system's 32-8 = 80% the last 5 seasons, 4-1 this year and 25-4 the past 3 seasons.
The Suns have won 13 of their last 16 and I'll back the hotter team right now with an official selection on the Suns at -1.5.
Thursday Free Picks
Today's pick is up on the Free Picks page. We have a selection from the NBA tonight. This new section is currently sitting at 11-4 ATS since we began. Free Picks
Well, the lines are up for this weekend's WEC-47: Bowles vs. Cruz in Columbus, Ohio. The event is being broadcast on Versus. Initially I was really looking at Cruz but now I'm favoring Bowles over Cruz for the Bantamweight title and then Torres over Benavidez in a good match as well.
This game looks to be an interesting contest, with the match odds not really matching the outright odds. Birmingham City are 12.0 to win the FA Cup compared to Portsmouth’s 21.0, yet Portsmouth are the slight favourites to take victory in this game at 2.60 compared to Birmingham’s 2.75. The match odds are not surprising as Portsmouth have one win in their last six home games, while Birmingham have only won one of their last four away games and have lost their last three away league games. However, the midlands side have been drawn away from home in every round of the FA Cup so far this season and with Portsmouth off-field problems getting worse every week they will feel that they can win this game and reach the new Wembley for the first time.
I recommend backing Birmingham to win this game at 2.75 with more than 2.5 goals to be scored @ 2.30.
17:20 - Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur: 3.00 - 3.25 - 2.37
Despite Spurs being joint second favourites with Aston Villa at 5.0 to lift the FA Cup this season they are going to have a tough time in this match as Fulham have won their last five home games and have only lost once in their last seventeen games at Craven Cottage. Spurs away form is inconsistent to say the best – they have only won three of their last ten away games and they came against Wigan Athletic, Leeds United and Blackburn Rovers. Fulham should win this game and are worth a bet to win the FA Cup at 13.0 as their odds will drop once they reach Wembley.
I recommend backing Fulham to win this game @ 3.00 with both teams to score @ 1.91.
SUNDAY:
13:45 - Reading v Aston Villa: 4.33 - 3.40 - 1.85
On paper this should be an easy one for Villa, but they’ll still be hurting after losing at Wembley last weekend and Reading are unbeaten in their last eight home games, winning four of their last five. To get this far, Reading have had to defeat two Premier League sides in Liverpool and Burnley and West Bromwich Albion, who are looking good to be promoted back to the Premier League. They will be no pushover for Villa. However, Villa have won two and drawn two of their last four away games, excluding the League Cup final last weekend, and will be looking to bounce back after their heartbreaking loss to Manchester United.
I feel that this game will finish level, so back the draw @ 3.40 with both sides to score @ 1.91.
16:00 - Chelsea v Stoke City: 1.25 - 5.50 - 12.00
Prior to last weekend’s loss to Manchester City, Chelsea had gone forty-one games unbeaten at Stamford Bridge, a run which began in December 2008. Also, Stoke City have not beaten Chelsea at Stamford Bridge since 1974. These statistics, along with the fact that Stoke’s last ten away games have seen five losses, four draws and only one victory (against Portsmouth), make the odds seem about right. Being as Chelsea are such huge favourites to win this game, I’m going to back both sides to score in the match @ 2.10 and Chelsea to score in both halves @ 1.95.
Saturday, 6 March 2010
Arsenal v Burnley, 15:00
West Ham v Bolton, 15:00
Wolverhampton v Man Utd, 17:30
Sunday, 7 March 2010
Everton v Hull, 16:00
Monday, 8 March 2010
Wigan v Liverpool, 20:00
Opta Stats - 6-8 March
Statistics and facts to help your football betting are available every week courtesy of Opta Sportsdata, Europe's leading provider of sports performance statistics
Arsenal v Burnley
Eduardo has started two games against Burnley and scored in both.
*
Burnley were the last team to avoid defeat after falling behind against the Gunners when they drew 1-1 at Turf Moor in December.
*
Arsenal have only drawn one of their last 19 Premier League matches at the Emirates.
*
Burnley have the worst away record in Premier League history after 14 matches with just one point on the road from a possible 42.
*
Arsenal have scored at least once in the last 20 minutes in each of their last eight league games at the Emirates.
*
The Gunners have won 17 and lost just one of their 22 league matches against teams outside of the current top five, accounting for 55 of their total of 58 points.
*
Burnley have taken more points (5) off the top five teams than they have from the teams in the bottom six of the table (4).
West Ham United v Bolton Wanderers
Three of the last four meetings in all competitions have finished 3-1 to Bolton and the other ended 2-1 to the Trotters.
*
Bolton will miss Gary Cahill who has scored in three of the last four meetings with West Ham.
*
Kevin Davies has scored seven goals in the last nine meetings in all competitions with the Hammers.
*
Bolton have won the last five matches with West Ham in all competitions.
*
West Ham have kept clean sheets in their last four Premier League matches at Upton Park.
*
Bolton have failed to find the net in their last four Premier League away games and it is now seven hours and two minutes since they last found the net on the road.
*
Since Christmas, Bolton have played 11 games, scored only seven goals and only one of those has been netted in the second half.
Wolves v Manchester United
Manchester United have already beaten Wolves twice this season (once in the league and once in the Carling Cup) without Mick McCarthy's side finding the net.
*
All three Premier League meetings have been won by the home side with the away team failing to find the net.
*
Wolves have scored just one goal in their last five Premier League home matches.
*
Wayne Rooney has scored 16 goals in his last 15 Premier League appearances, including the opener in the 3-0 win over Wolves in December.
*
United have only won one of their last four Premier League away matches.
*
There have been just five goals scored in the last four league meetings between United and Wolves at Molineux.
*
Man Utd have won 13 and lost only one of 15 games against the teams currently in the bottom half of the table.
Everton v Hull City
Hull and Everton have already met twice this season, with the Tigers winning 3-2 in the Premier League and the Toffees 4-0 in the Carling Cup, both at the KC Stadium.
*
Hull and Everton have met in English League football nine times with both teams winning four times and sharing one draw.
*
Hull have conceded two goals in each of the three Premier League meetings with Everton.
*
Phil Brown's side have failed to score in eight of their last 10 Premier League away games, including the last four in a row.
*
The Tigers have kept just one clean sheet in their last 19 Premier League away matches.
*
David Moyes' side have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League home games and won the last five in a row, scoring at least two goals.
*
Hull have only won one of their last 13 Premier League matches.
Wigan Athletic v Liverpool
Wigan and Liverpool have met 11 times in all competitions with the Reds coming out on top nine times and the other two matches ending as draws.
*
Liverpool have scored one goal in their last two visits to the DW Stadium, each time courtesy of Yossi Benayoun.
*
Dirk Kuyt has scored five goals in five Premier League starts against Wigan.
*
Liverpool have failed to score in five of their last seven Premier League away games, including the last three in a row.
*
70% of the goals Wigan have conceded have come in the second half, the highest proportion in the top flight.
*
Wigan have failed to score in their last three Premier League matches.
I don't always win, but I rarely miss a play when handicapping the daily card, missed Detroit yesterday, they blew a 3rd quarter lead at home, road game next niight, lost Q1 by 10 points, DAMNIT!
Tonight, Over/Under system live in LA/Mia,
34-18 overall, 25-12 on Overs, 9-6 Under.
LA/Mia Ov 189.
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