Where does BetRepublic cricket analyst Ed Hawkins think the betting value lies in the India v South Africa Test Series?

India and South Africa are preparing for the start of a two-Test series in the early hours of Saturday morning and bettors should be confident of making the contest pay after paying close attention to the Proteas in their recent drawn series against England.

India are 11-8 with Stan James, South Africa 3-1 (Betfred, Hills) and the draw is 2-1 (Bet365, Betfred, Hills). Only two sides have won a Test series in India since 2000 but despite that record, we cannot back the home team with confidence. The two teams that have triumphed in India are Australia (2004) and South Africa (2000). Indeed, if there is one team which is today capable of winning in India, it is South Africa. Since they were brought back from the wilderness in 1996, they have the best record of any team in the country. Throughout history, only West Indies have a superior win-loss ratio. South Africa last visited in 2008 and came away with a draw, although they were unfortunate not to win. India produced an outrageous wicket in the final Test in Kanpur when they were 1-0 down to force a result and South Africa lost the toss and therefore the Test. The reason for South Africa’s success in India is that they are a solid and, ahem, negative side. They are quite prepared to bat long and slowly for hours, frustrating the hosts and making sure they do not lose. Tests in India are often a war of attrition and South Africa are perfectly suited.

There are fears that South Africa’s lack of a spinner makes them close to useless but those are unjustified. Twirlers suffer in India no matter how good (Shane Warne was awful for example) so don’t get hung up about it. Before we pile into Graeme Smith’s side, however, spot the fly in the ointment. Following the 1-1 draw against England they have lost their coach and their entire selection panel. Turmoil doesn’t quite cover it. We can only guess how they will cope but it would be fair to reckon that a side which has undergone such changes is probably not value to win. Instead, let’s get on the side of the draw. You could back it at 2.88 or, in fact, lay India at 2.50 on Betfair.

The best value wager is backing a 0-0 correct score at 9-2 (Victor Chandler). It would be a major surprise if there was a result in each of the Tests (at Nagpur and Eden Gardens) with both surfaces stalemate-friendly.

The hosts have been rocked by an injury to Rahul Dravid, the pillar of their batting and there are slight concerns about their ability to take 20 wickets. Zaheer Khan is a fine bowler but Ishant Sharma’s form has been patchy and although he performed well against Bangladesh last time, that is no marker.

Having perused those stats, Jacques Kallis looks to be the best punt at 3-1 (Stan James). Smith is the same price with Skybet and Hills. AB De Villiers is 9-2 (Blue Square, 888Sport). For India, Gautam Gambhir (Bet365, Blue Sq, 888Sport, Stan James), Virender Sehwag (Blue Sq, Stan James, Hills) and Sachin Tendulkar (Skybet, Stan James, Hills) are all 3-1.