Post All-Star stats, NHL Picks

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Last Updated on Tuesday, 31 January 2012 14:16
Written by BetRepublic
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It’s time to drop the puck on the second-half and we have post-break stats from the past three years along with an Over/Under play to start building the playoff fund at your sportsbook

The NHL resumes play Tuesday after almost a week off during All-Star festivities and in any sport; bettors need to exercise a bit of caution following such an unusual gap between games.

Teams that had momentum going in often struggle to find that spark but it’s tough for oddsmakers to give the potential fall-off its due. Meanwhile their opponents, teams who have had just as much time to regroup, come in gunning for club that was hot going in.

Here is a three-year synopsis following All-Star and Olympic layoffs.

POST 2009 ALL-STAR BREAK
In the 2009 All-Star game the East beat the West 12-11 in a shootout and two days later, 11 NHL games produced 4 overs and 7 unders. The thing that stands out regarding the overs is that three-of-four were blowout victories.

Anaheim scored seven goals at Phoenix (7-3), Buffalo topped Edmonton 10-2 and Minnesota laced the Leafs 6-1.

The only tangible evidence we can spot from a brief perspective is that the winning teams were involved in playoff fights while two of the losers (Oilers, Leafs), were taking up space in their respective cellars.

Also worth noting is that favorites of -141 or greater were 5-0 that day. Wednesday was more of the same, 3 overs, 1 under and a 3-0 record for moneyline favorites of -130 or greater.

POST 2010 WINTER GAMES
The NHL wasted little time getting back after a two-week layoff for the 2010 Winter Olympics and Detroit beat Colorado 3-2 on Monday, March 1. Detroit’s leading scorers, Lidstrom and Datsyuk went to work six minutes into the contest, overall shots were 30-24 Wings and the game stayed under the posted total.

One day later it was a much different story, when 12 games produced 9 overs, 1 under and 2 pushes.

Granted, a lot of these NHL players were participating in the Olympics and doing very little resting. But not all of them were playing until the Gold Medal game and the 16-day break for those that missed the Games was a lot longer than this year’s All-Star break.

Note that the third day back had a record of 4 overs and 2 unders, giving an overall three-day tally of 13 overs, 4 unders and 2 pushes, or 76.5-percent to the "Over".

POST 2011 ALL-STAR BREAK
Favorites were 6-2-4 following last year’s break (Feb. 1), going 3-1-3 at home and 3-1-1 on the road.

The 12 games produced 4 overs, 7 unders and 1 push and the split was 3-3-1 O/U for home faves and just 1 over to 4 unders when the road squad was laying juice.

Moneyline chalk of -141 or more had an alright day in the NHL record book, goin 2-1-1 with 2 overs and 2 unders, but the juice on Atlanta (-172) and Washington (-163) cost bettors at the window.

The only heavy road fave was Chicago (-137), who blasted Columbus 7-4.

 


The three-day record for totals following the past three All-Star and Olympic breaks is 36 overs, 26 unders and 5 pushes


HANDICAPPING TIPS
This is just a brief sample of games from the past few years and while there is no concrete method for selecting winners, there are a few parameters to keep in mind:

- Auto-betting the "Under" is not a sure-fire method

- Look for teams that are within legitimate striking distance of the playoff cut. Make or break points in both the East and West currently sit at 55.

- Moneyline favorites of -140 or more are worth strong consideration but get creative with betting. Try using regulation lines at Pinnacle Sports or lay a goal and-a-half on the puckline.

NHL PICK – JETS AT FLYERS
Winnipeg’s owner didn’t feel snubbed by not having a single Jet at the All-Star game but look for the players to come out with an edge tonight in Philadelphia (-190). That price makes the road dog tempting but Philly will be out for vengeance and given Winnipeg’s injuries, we can’t justify a play on the dog. The total is 5.5 OV (-115), though, and that’s a bargain given the 27 goals these teams have combined for in the first two meetings this year.
Pick: Take the Over


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