Horse Racing: November Handicap Tip

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Last Updated on Saturday, 05 November 2011 05:10
Written by James Hipwell
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The Betfred November Handicap (on Channel 4 at 3.10 UK time) is the big betting race of the day and signals the end of the British turf flat season for another year. It is usually a race that should be avoided. Often run in heavy going and contested by horses who have had a long season, the results speak for themselves.

There has been no winning favourite since 1995, a 50/1 outsider in 2001 and plenty of big double figure winners (including odds of 20/1, 16/1 and 25/1). It is a minefield for punters so let's see if the trends can help: 

KEY TRENDS

Age

• All of the last 12 winners have been 3-5yo's

Betting

• No favourite has won since 1995

Class

• All of the last 12 winners had won at class 4 or higher (but not class 1)

• All of the last 12 winners had run in a class 3 or better race

• 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 80-99

Distance

• All of the last 12 winners had won at 10f or further

Previous runs

• All of the last 12 winners had won at least 2 races in their career.

• All of the last 12 winners had run at least 4 times that season

• All of the last 12 winners had run within the last 60 days

• 11 of the last 15 winners made the top 3 last time out

• 11 of the last 12 winners had won that season

• 14 of the last 15 winners had a top 2 finish in at least one of their last two runs

Other

• In the last 12 years only Batswing (2000) won here after running over hurdles on his previous run.

BR Verdict 

The ones out of today's runners that have most of the right attributes, and conform to these stats, are KIAMA BAY (14/1), CLASSIC VINTAGE (25/1), SCRAPPER SMITH (25/1) and OCEANWAY (25/1). These are the ones we will be backing.