Horse Racing: Paddy Power Gold Cup Tip

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Last Updated on Saturday, 12 November 2011 05:20
Written by James Hipwell
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Paddy Power Gold Cup

Cheltenham (2.35pm UK time)

I always like to back horses who have done well at Cheltenham before in this race so that is where I will start in assessing today's field in the big betting race of the day. 

For me, the most likely winner is WISHFUL THINKING. He progressed into a top-class novice last season, improving on his second in a Grade 2 over C&D in March with wins at Aintree and Punchestown afterwards. Today's race demands a bit more but he could well have more to give again and has to be backed for the win at 6/1. He will be my main bet but I will have some smaller each-way bets on the following bigger-priced selections. 

Second season chasers that have run well in the Centenary Novices Chase (formerly the Jewson Handicap Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival are always high on the shortlist. That immediately puts TULLAMORE DEW into the reckoning, especially as he will arrive at the track with a run under his belt. Nick Gifford’s charge wasn’t suited by the early pace of that novice handicap chase in March and did well to rally after a mistake three out to make the frame and has been laid out for the contest. I can't believe the bookies have hin at 22/1. I feel sure he will outrun his odds today. 

Another one that interests me is OISEAU DE NUIT, winner of the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual at last season's Festival. He also finished second in the Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree and impressed when third in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on his reappearance. He remains on a fair mark and will be suited by the likely strong pace of this race, so really does look a good each-way bet at 40/1. 

The current favourite, MON PARRAIN, is highly regarded by his trainer, Paul Nicholls, and he is clearly exceptionally talented but for me it was a worry when he stopped to a walk in the Topham at Aintree in April. He found very little when off the bridle and a similar performance today would see him soundly beaten. I will make him my Lay of the Day. 

BR Betting Advice: 

Back Wishful Thinking  to win at 6/1

Back Tullamore Dew each-way at 22/1

Back Oiseau De Nuit each-way at 40/1

Lay Mon Parrain at 6.0 on Betfair (Win Market)