We should find out this weekend just how much improvement has been made by those teams that so far have underperformed – notably Ferrari, McLaren and BMW – as nearly all teams will introduce major upgrades. It’s hard to imagine that when Kimi Raikkonen’s left here last year, he would be winless in a year and he’ll hope that a modified aero package will place the Ferrari much closer to the leader’s pace than it’s been so far especially at a track where the team have had conspicuous success. The Scuderia are one of the few teams to persist with KERS – Renault and BMW have dropped the system for the next few races, even though it should be of assistance at the start with a long run to the first corner.

Past Spanish Grand Prix

The most significant aspect to this weekend is the complete dominance of the front row since the grand prix was first staged at Catalunya in 1991. Only once in 18 years has the winner emerged from anywhere else and that was when Michael Schumacher won as the third fastest qualifier in 1996 when Damon Hill on pole spun off in the wet and only six of the 20 starters finished. Twice the fastest qualifier has failed to finish (both occasions it was wet) and in the other 16 races, the fastest qualifier has won on 14 occasions.

With such a preponderance of success from the front, it’s perhaps a surprise that the winners weren’t necessarily the dominant drivers going into the race – only 7/18 were the championship leaders although only Massa, two years ago, and Raikkonen in 2005 were further back than third in the standings. Jenson Button, Rubens Barrichello and Sebastian Vettel are the current top three in the championship.

It may well be a procession this weekend as only three of the fastest qualifiers since 1996 have failed to finish and that has led to a dominance of the podium from these starters (23/36). In only 3/18 at this track has a driver outside of the top 10 failed to finish in the top eight but only once in the past eight years has a driver starting 16th or worse done so.

Leading Qualifiers

For the third time this season, Jenson Button (Pole) starts on pole and he’s a strong favourite to make it three wins out of three from this position. We’ve already mentioned how successful the fastest qualifier has been from pole at Catalunya and in the post Schumacher era (2005 onwards), the championship leader when starting on pole has won 58% of the 71 grand prix. So an additional reason to back Button.

Sebastian Vettel (2nd) has become the most likely challenger to a Button drivers’ title and is the only driver to make top three in qualifying in every race so far although he started 10 places back in 13th at Sepang following a racing infringement in Australia. He is a credible challenger to the Brawns but aside from wins, the third fastest at Catalunya has been equally successful and finished second in four of the past six Spanish Grand Prix. Indeed there’s every chance that Rubens Barrichello (3rd) could make it a Brawn 1-2 as a constructor 1-2 is what has happened in seven of the last 14 races here.
This is the track where Ferrari (4th) have been most successful in recent years with three wins in the past four years but those have come from further up the grid and five of the nine podiums for the fourth fastest qualifier have been assisted by those starting ahead. Massa (4th) should score his first points of the season but 3.0’s is too short for a podium finish.

Other top-10 qualifiers

Mark Webber (5th) has scored points in 7/10 races for Red Bull when starting from the second or third row but only twice made podium and there’s no real evidence to suggest he can get close to his team-mate this weekend.
The Toyota’s of Timo Glock (6th) and Jarno Trulli (7th) start close together and but for a poor tyre strategy they would undoubtedly have picked up more points in Bahrain when they started from the front row. Trulli confirmed in Bahrain his recent trend of moving backwards on raceday and we’d certainly favour Glock to come out best of the two this weekend.

Fernando Alonso (8th) will be disappointed to be starting as far back as he is at his home track and apart from when he retired last year, he has finished on the podium here in three of the previous four years. That’s unlikely to happen this year because 1992 is the only occasion that a driver starting from eighth has made top three. Since returning to Renault, he’s scored points in 6/9 starting from a similar position and retreated almost as often as he has progressed from this row.

Nico Rosberg (9th) has yet to make much of an impression this season and at a track where it’s difficult to overtake and safety cars are rare, it’s hard to envisage that either he or Robert Kubica (10th) will progress sufficiently to interest us.

Best of the rest

It’s looking like a bit of a disaster for McLaren this weekend with Lewis Hamilton (14th) and Heikki Kovalianen (18th) starting well down the field, although the team did admit that their expectations were low this weekend as it’s a track that’s never really suited them. Kimi Raikkonen (16th) had a disastrous qualifying which is becoming increasingly common for Ferrari this season and he’ll do extremely well to get anything out of the weekend.

Our View

There’s not a great deal to say about this weekend, other than to get on Jenson Button at 1.98 with Betfair. The history of the fastest qualifier here and that starting from the front is the championship leader and the best car, persuades us that this is the only consideration for this weekend.
Because Catalunya is a track where not a great deal happens, it’s very difficult to find value elsewhere. A Brawn 1-2 is too short at 2.75 and our only other consideration would be to sell Trulli on the spreads at 0 in a match bet against Glock.

A Button win is our main recommendation.