It all comes down to this: Orlando or LA?
Bet Republic brings you a breakdown of various aspects of the championship series, without any distracting mentions of David Stern conspiracies, that guy from Cleveland or Jon and Kate.

Who has the hot hand?

One of the biggest factors determining who wins in the post season is “who has the hot hand at the right time?”
Right now, the Magic have the edge.
Denver peaked too early. Cleveland didn’t really have the depth.
Orlando? They seem to be just about right.
On the other hand, nothing has come easy for the Lakers this post season. LA seemed to have hit their stride in March and April, also peaking too early. They took Utah out in five games, but blew a lot of leads. They needed seven to get past Houston, who was without their star player for most of the series. And Denver proved their equal, 2-2 in the first four games, and the first three quarters of game five, too. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter in that game that the Lakers seemed to find their rhythm.  It  carried over to game six, when they won in Denver and were in control the entire game. The BIG question is – have the Lakers found their late-season unbeatable looking form, or will they still be up and down from game to game?

Edge: Orlando

Who can win on the road?

A key to post season success, especially for a team that does not have home court advantage, is their ability to win on the road. The Magic are just 5-5 SU on the road during the playoffs but they have won the big ones, like game one in Boston and Cleveland. Plus, they vanquished the 76’ers in Philly in game six, and the Celtics in Boston in game seven.

As we’ve pointed out before, Orlando doesn’t really have a home court edge and/or visiting team disadvantage. Their style of play makes their surroundings less relevant than it is for most teams. Simply put, if Orlando’s outside shooting is in the groove they will win, no matter where they are; if it’s not – they’ll lose, home or away. When they hit only 5 of 18 three pointers (23%), they lose, like game one at home in Orlando versus Philadelphia. When they hit 13 of 21 (62%) like they did in game seven at Boston, they win.

Though they won their last game in Denver to close out that series, LA is just 3-4 SU on the road this post season, including losses of 12, 15 and 19 points.

Edge: Orlando

Head to Head

Orlando swept the regular season, 2-0. They won by three points at home and by six on the road. Both games took place early in the season, before LA hit their stride. And both games had the Magic’s Jameer Nelson as leading scorer. Nelson has been out of the lineup since early February and is questionable for the finals. Even if he gets in it remains to be seen how effective he can be off of a long layoff. Also of note – the Magic hit 40% from downtown in the two games. That will not be duplicated in the playoffs; certainly not over the course of seven games.
In both games LA had the lead at the half and lost both third quarters and both fourth quarters.
Teams that won the regular season series are 11-0 in this post season!

Edge: Orlando

Championship Experience

Though Orlando has done well this post season, they have not yet been tested on the biggest stage. LA was just here last year. That’s no small matter, especially in game one, where LA also has their home court advantage.

Edge: LA

Coaching

No match here, much more experience on the LA side.
Stan’s own players question his ability.

Superstars

Though the superstars are Kobe and Dwight Howard, they do not matchup against each other on the court.
On Kobe: Courtney Lee will start for the Magic, but Mikael Pietrus will end up with more minutes. Mikael did a great job defending LeBron, but the difference here is that Kobe can dish to teammates that can shoot.
On Howard: Dwight will be blanketed by the trio of Bynum, Odom and sometimes Gasol.  Phil Jackson will have Odom and Bynum take hard fouls on Howard, forcing him to make free throws and sending an early message - we're not Philly, Boston or the Cavs - we have multiple big bodies to prevent you from taking over, inside.

Kobe will as usual put in a Herculean effort and almost single handedly win one or two games for his guys, Howard will win one for his. Maybe two. The difference will be the other four guys and the bench.  Which brings us to . . . 

Personnel

Edges to Orlando with Alston over Fisher (who has played very poorly) and Turkoglu (deadly with the three's late in the game) over Ariza (inconstent.)
Edges to LA with Gasol over Lewis, and also with their bench players.

Talent edge: even.

The differential here, as always in championship series in any sport, could be defense.  Right now, Orlando is playing better overall team D.  They are consistent; LA still has lapses.

So, who will win?
That's easy - the team that makes the most of its edges and advantages!


Interesting facts:

Cavs won game one in Boston and Cleveland. It will be in their best interest to do so in LA -  Phil Jackson is 43-0 in playoff series where his team has won the first game.

In 1985, the NBA switched the championship series to the 2-3-2 format, and the home team has won 18 of 24 (75%) finals.