NBA Betting – It’s Over for Unders

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Last Updated on Monday, 23 January 2012 14:03
Written by BetRepublic
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Oddsmakers are setting basketball lines more than 12 points below historical levels, a perfect situation for "Over" bettors to profit

NBA OVER/UNDER NOTEBOOK

There are 10 games on the NBA docket Monday and the average posted total for Over/Under betting is 187.2. Compare that with the odds for 10 games on the Monday that followed last year’s NFL Conference Championships (Jan. 24-11), and "Over" bettors would be licking their chops.

The average total for NBA action one year ago today was 199.9 – a difference of 12.7 points per game!

A short preseason set the table for low scoring games early and the demand on teams to cram more games into a short time frame has caused an increase in injuries. Less star power in turn led to lower offense but as we saw during the NFL regular season, oddsmakers are quick to make adjustments.

An Over/Under hit-rate that at that times this season was hitting close to 70-percent on the low side was down to 60-percent 10 days ago. After 11 overs and 4 unders on the weekend, the league-wide record through Sunday is 113-154 O/U, or 57.7-percent to the "Under".

We compared numbers though the first 12 weeks of the NFL season and it looks like déjà vu all over again.

- Week’s 1-5 there was 46 overs, 29 unders and 2 pushes, or 61.3-percent "Over"

- Week’s 6-12 there was 37 overs, 61 unders and 1 push, or 37.8-percent "Over"

These are different sports but it’s the same online sportsbooks setting the lines and a similar group of bettors placing the wagers. Books make lines based on public opinion and statistical performance and with lines reaching record lows, don’t be surprised to see Over/Under numbers continue back towards the mean.


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