NBA Picks, Over/Under trends

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Last Updated on Thursday, 01 March 2012 13:20
Written by BetRepublic
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League-wide scoring is up but sportsbooks have managed to maintain their lead on bettors in the Over/Under department. Our analyst breaks down tonight’s matchups with a look at recent stats along with his NBA best bets

This year’s NBA All-Star game finished almost 20 points over the posted total and it didn’t come as a surprise to anyone, but in the first two days back the league is still trending heavy to the low side.

Tuesday’s games featured 3 overs and 6 unders (no overtime), and Wednesday’s 12 tilts went 5 overs, 6 unders and a push in New Orleans for anyone that bought their tickets after 10:30 am ET (Pinnacle Sports).

The overall record for the league this season in games that didn’t go to OT is 227-289 O/U (44-percent) and in the past three days of regular action, there has been just 9 overs compared to 15 unders.

That’s a 62.5-percent hit rate for "Under" bettors and it’s been this way since the season started.

Online sportsbooks usually stay ahead of the curve in the 5- to 10-percent range for Over/Under betting throughout the course of the season but as we settle in for the second-half, is it possible the anticipation from "Over" bettors will keep unders in the black?

Here’s a snapshot for Thursday night’s card with a focus on Over/Under stats and scoring averages.

THUNDER AT MAGIC
Line: Thunder -1, O/U 192
Oklahoma City scored 103.7 points per game (PPG) in its past three games, 1.3 more than its season average. The Thunder score slightly less points when playing back-to-back, but not by much (101.2).

Orlando’s three-game scoring average is up to 96 PPG, nearly three points more than their season mark of 93.3. The Magic already rank fourth in the league for fewest points allowed (90.9) but when playing without rest, Dwight Howard and his crew give up just 88 points per game (8-5 SU).
Pick: Take the Magic

TIMBERWOLVES AT SUNS
Line: Suns -4.5, O/U 204.5
Phoenix has 4 overs in its past five games and also shows one of the more remarkable increases in scoring average (94.6 up to 103.3 PPG).


Phoenix followed last year’s All-Star break with a 105-97 home win over the Hawks – the start of a four-game win streak. They produced 6 overs and 2 unders in eight games after the break


The Suns only increased their February win total (7) by one game over January (6), but they outscored opponents 98.9 to 93.4 after getting outscored 97.1 to 92.1. That’s a 10.4-point swap in scoring differential and it makes the Suns a dangerous opponent for T-Wolves team playing its third game in three nights.

Minnesota is up 1.2 points on average the past three games and went into the break on a 4-1 ATS streak but they’ll have a hard time keeping up tonight.
Pick: Take the Suns

ROUND UP
The Los Angeles Clippers (1.1), Sacramento Kings (14.3), Miami Heat (0.3) and Portland Trailblazers (9.7) are all trending higher in the past three games and that makes it an eight-team sweep for scoring increases from Thursday’s card.

It doesn’t mean we’ll see four overs tonight but it’s something to consider when `capping totals during the maddest month of them all.

NBA Betting Stats – Odds, trends, injury reports and Power Rating lines on all of today’s matchups – Click here!

SU: Straight-up
ATS: Against the spread
O/U: Over/Under


Follow Jarvis Simes on Twitter for an inside edge on the sports betting plays of the day