BCS Picks: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 1 LSU

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Last Updated on Monday, 09 January 2012 11:34
Written by BetRepublic
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The Crimson Tide are favored by -2.5 points over LSU in tonight’s National Championship and we breakdown the matchup offering a play on the total

These teams met Nov. 5 for a low scoring, defensive struggle and tonight marks the first BCS rematch for a national title. Florida topped Florida State 52-20 in the most recent national championship rematch, Jan. 2, 1997.

Sportsbetting.com opened with Alabama (-2) and action was split for most of the past week but money from chalk bettors has swayed the Tide up to -2.5. The total is 40.5 and online sportsbooks show 51-percent money on the over.

Some argue that there are too many bowl games but nobody wants to miss this one. The Mercedes Benz Superdome is familiar ground for the Tigers – they won two national titles here in the past eight years, but the offense will have to produce more than nine points if they want to make it three.

LSU is getting more consistent play from QB Jefferson since his 67 yard outing on Nov. 5. He has four TD passes in his last four games and just one interception but he’s also a threat to run and some of his best passes have come when he’s on the move. In three career games vs. the Tide, Jefferson is 26/40 for 322 yards and two TDs (0 INT).

 

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Alabama QB McCarron was solid in his last two games and he’s done a good job protecting the football but the Tide need to lean on their rushing attack that was held to 96 yards on 31 carries during the first meeting. RB Richardson led the way but the Tide will look for more out of RBs Lacey and Fowler.

The Tigers outrushed Alabama 148-96 in the last game and the fast-track indoors should favor their speedy defense. LSU has a legitimate chance to win this game straight-up but in a tight game, look for defense to play the biggest role.
Pick: Take the Under

TOP TRENDS

LSU is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
LSU is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
LSU is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
LSU is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
LSU is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
LSU is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
LSU is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ALABAMA is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA is 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.


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