England v Bangladesh Betting Preview

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Last Updated on Wednesday, 26th May 2010, 

Written by EdHawkins

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Our cricket tipping service is in great nick ahead of the start on Thursday at Lord’s of the first of two Test matches between England and Bangladesh. We didn’t get the winner in the World Twenty20 but we did nail the top runscorer at far greater odds.

Mahela Jayawardene’s 22-1 win has given us ammunition for a series which on the face of it lacks punch for the punters. England are as short as 1-22 (Boyles) for victory. Bangladesh are a hopeless 50-1 (Betfred) with the draw 10-1 (Bet365, Betfred, Stan James, Extrabet).

It makes for rather depressing reading. Fear not. The last time these side’s met we recommended a 7-4 chance that we described as the bet of the year. We were wrong. Oh, it won, don’t worry about that. But three months on from that series in March, we have a wager which surpasses even that fabled winner.

The 7-4 shot was backing Shakib Al Hasan to be top Bangladesh series bowler. We unearthed statistics that showed Shakib topping the bowling charts on each of the last five series (of two Tests or more) before that contest. We couldn’t believe our luck.

So what to make of Paddy Power’s offer of 3-1 that he makes it seven in a row? The immediate reaction is one of incredulity that a professional bookmaker can so spectacularly fail to do its research. Then a ruthless desire to make them pay takes over.

Only Muttiah Muralitharan, the legendary Sri Lanka spinner, has a similar record in making the layers pay time and time again on top series bowler. Murali goes off well odds on. Shakib should be likewise. Okay, we don’t expect him to be as skinny as the stats suggests (around 4-6 would be the correct ‘industry’ price) but to go as big as 3-1 is a wonderful rick.

We urge you to open a Paddy Power account to take them to the cleaners. Sure, we can’t guarantee that Shakib will deliver - he has been suffering from illness but that has not impacted the layers' thinking - but the statistics overwhelmingly suggest he will. He wins the top wicket-taker race by an average of 4.5 wickets. More importantly, as we say time and time again on this blog, the price is wrong. And we only bet when the price is wrong. This is a maximum stakes wager.

It is the only bet we need to have in this series and we’re thankful for Paddy Power’s error. Otherwise we could find ourselves being seduced by prices like the 11-4 (Extrabet) that an in-form Kevin Pietersen top scores over the series. Alastair Cook, who top scored when the sides met earlier in the year and gave us another winner, is 4-1 (Hills, Stan James). Andrew Strauss, the returning England captain, is 7-2 (Betfred, BlueSq, 888Sport, Stan James, Paddy Power, Hills). Eoin Morgan, who is set to make his debut in the absence of the rested Paul Collingwood, is 10-1 (Extrabet) for top England series bat.

Tamim Iqbal, Bangladesh’s best batsman, is 7-2 (Stan James) for series honours. He is poor value, however. Mushfiqur Rahim, the doughty wicketkeeper, is the stand out bet at 10-1 (Stan James). He has made the top three five times in the last six series, including against England.

The bet
Shakib top Bangladesh series bowler
5pts 3-1 Paddy Power