First Test Betting Preview

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Last Updated on Wednesday, 26th May 2010, 

Written by EdHawkins

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10.00GMT, Thursday, live on Sky Sports
England and Bangladesh meet at Lord’s on Thursday for the first of two Tests. It is not the most glamorous of fixtures but that does not mean that we should shun the opportunity to make money. England are no better than 1-8 (Extrabet) with Bangladesh 33-1 (Stan James) and the draw 8-1 (Boyles).

With the match odds only for those with deep pockets, we should look elsewhere for potential wagers. The first port of call has to be England’s batsmen, who are expected to dominate against a weak Bangladesh bowling line-up on a good batting wicket. Every time England bat at HQ these days they seem to get 500!

So we uncovered some stats regarding individual players’ records at Lord’s. They make for interesting reading, although bear in mind that Jonathan Trott and Eoin Morgan are not included as they have yet to bat there for England.

After each player’s name is their average, a match runs quote from spread betting firm Extrabet and any player performance points from Bet365 (1pt per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wkt) priced at 5-6 over/under.
              Average Extrabet Bet365
Cook     59.83     92-99     -
Strauss 62.21    92-99      -
Pietersen 67.5   80-87     98
Bell           70.37 53.60       -
Prior         50.10 36-42     86

The stand out value from that little lot appears to be Ian Bell. Bell is a classic man to follow in this sort of game, ie one where pressure exists only in the atmosphere. The Warwickshire man is not a great one to put your faith in when something is at stake. However, he is wonderful to watch, and to bet on, against weak opposition on a flat track with the sun warming his back.

Bell is 7-1 (BlueSq, 888Sport, Bet365) to be top England runscorer in the first-innings. That looks a decent price. When Bangladesh were there in 2005 he made an unbeaten 65 and although that was not enough for honours, it reinforces our point about his fair-weather nature.

Kevin Pietersen is 11-4 (Skybet) for top England bat, pipping Alastair Cook (4-1 Skybet, Betfred, VC, BlueSq, Stan James, 888Sport, Hills Extrabet) and Andrew Strauss (4-1 Blue Sq, 888Sport, Extrabet) for favouritism.

Bangladesh’s top-bat market is dominated by Tamim Iqbal, the impressive young opener. He is 7-2 (Bet365, Betfred, BlueSq, Paddy Power, 888Sport, Extrabet). He is a bad favourite, however and we would prefer being with Shakib al Hasan (11-2 Betfred, VC) or Mushfiqur Rahim (8-1 Stan James). Rahim, by the way, could be perfect. He has a tight technique and plenty of guts. His runs are available to buy at 53 with Extrabet. He is 5-6 with Bet365 for 65 points or more. Remember he gets 25 points for a stumping.

But our recommended wager for this Test involves Tamim. We think a sell of his match runs at 61-68 with Extrabet is a great bet.

Tamim is undoubtedly talented but Lord’s will be his greatest test as a young sub-continental batsman on his first tour of England. It is one which some truly great players have failed.
At home and in India, Sri Lanka, the Caribbean or Australia, Tamim has the game to score well because he is expansive, he plays his shots and goes hard at the ball. But England is a different challenge. If he plays the same way, which he most probably will, he will be found out.

The ball seams and swimgs in England more than anywhere in the world, particularly in May. You can’t be expansive, play your shots or go hard at the ball. Tamim opften plays a long way from his body with minimal feet movement and this completes the identikit of a sub-continental player who struggles in England. He also has a wrist injury to hinder him.

The bet
Sell Tamim Iqbal match runs
1pt at 61 Extrabet