India v South Africa: 1st Test Betting Preview

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Last Updated on Friday, 5th Feb 2010, 
Written by jameshipwell
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Where should you put your money in the 1st Test between India and South Africa? Ed Hawkins reports...

India have to be opposed in the first Test, which starts early Saturday (04.00GMT) against South Africa in Nagpur. Slower starters than a Morris Minor in winter first thing, they look to be far too short at 21-10 (Stan James). South Africa are 100-30 generally with the draw a very tempting even money across the board.

It is the home side’s awful record in the first Test of a home series that forms one of the four cornerstones of our argument. In their last 10 they have managed to win just twice, drawing seven. It is a record which has to be respected given that they have a formidable home record, losing only two series since 2000

What is also against India starting well and bucking that incredible trend in the first matches of a series are their recent opponents. They enjoyed a stroll against Bangladesh last month, winning the series 2-0 and previous to that they were hardly tested against weak Sri Lanka and New Zealand sides.

South Africa are going to be much harder nuts to crack. They will be quite happy to draw this first Test and you can expect to see them bat pretty negatively and set ultra defensive fields to allow them to get a foothold.

The wicket should help the visitors do just that. Apart from a little early moisture, it should be flat and easy to bat on. The average first-innings score is a whopping 343, so spread bettors should factor that figure into any potential wagers. Indeed, this Test looks the perfect opportunity to get long of innings runs if an early wicket goes because of the seam or swing movement first up.

India will be without Rahul Dravid, which weakens them significantly. He is a rock of their batting. Untested Sub Badrinath and Rohit Sharma could come in to form a immature middle order. South Africa are expected to give Johan Botha the spinner’s slot ahead of Paul Harris.

India batsman averages in first Tests

Sehwag 60
Gambhir 51
Tendulkar 58
VVS Laxman 36
Dhoni 59

There is much hype about India’s batting line-up, and justifiably so when you consider the numbers above. Virender Sehwag is 7-2 (Extrabet) to be top bat and 7-4 (Blue Sq) for 61 runs or more in the first dig. Sachin Tendulkar is 7-2 (Extrabet) and as short as 13-8 for 61 runs or more. Tendulkar has top-scored twice in the last five Tests at Nagpur.

Jacques Kallis, with an average of 55 in India, looks to be the most durable of the South Africa batsman and he is 7-4 (Blue Sq)  to score 61 runs or more in the first innings. Smith, who averages 44, is 15-8  to do the same. He is 11-4 to match his average.

BetRepublic Recommended Bet:

3pts Lay India at 3.5 on Betfair

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