Test Series Betting Preview: South Africa v England
By www.BetRepublic.com

Wednesday, 16 December 2009
First Test Match, Centurion, 8:30GMT

Saturday, 26 December 2009
Second Test Match, Durban, 8:30GMT

Sunday, 03 January 2010
Third Test Match, Cape Town, 8:30GMT

Thursday, 14 January 2010
Fourth Test Match, Johannesburg, 8:30GMT

South Africa, the No 2 rated side in the world, take on a team cruelly being dubbed by the locals as their reserves in a four-Test series, which starts in Centurion on Wednesday. The rest of us refer to them as England.

With Andrew Strauss, Matt Prior, Jonathan Trott and Kevin Pietersen all born in South Africa (the latter duo were schooled there, too) the ire is understandable but as for the hosts straining extra sinews to teach the ‘old boys’ a lesson, forget it.

South Africa are 4-6 (Skybet) for victory with England 100-30 (Extrabet) and the draw 15-4 (Boylesports). To make sense of those prices we need to focus on which side is most likely to take 20 wickets most often, even if the hyperbole tries to distract us.

On the face of it, South Africa do not look short enough. Don’t forget that last year they gave England a rare beating on their own soil and vanquished Australia in Australia at the start of 2009. England, of course, beat Australia in the Ashes but there is more than a nagging feeling that they were fortunate to do so.

Statistics break it down perfectly for us. In the respective sides' last 14 Tests, South Africa have taken 20 wickets eight times to England's four. Effectively they are twice as good. Bring the magnifying closer and you’ll discover that England are not great travellers. Since winning in South Africa in 2004-05 with a very good side that broke up, England have won one in seven series abroad, and that was against New Zealand. South Africa have lost only three of their last 18 series at home.

With such a heavy weight of numbers against them, one could be forgiven for wondering why England are not a bigger price. The answer is two-fold. Firstly there is a lack of faith in South Africa after they messed up in the one-day series and, secondly, there are injury concerns over allrounder Jacques Kallis.

The first ‘problem’ should be ignored. Punters who have made their minds up about what England will do in a Test series on the back of what they did in a preceding one-day series will have lost their money three times in four series in the last five years. The Kallis issue is not so easily dealt with.

South Africa captain Graeme Smith has openly admitted that his side don’t know how to play without their talisman. But the signs are he will recover from a rib injury in time for the first Test, albeit as a batsman only. That offers comfort, as does the fact that Kallis could be bowling by the time we reach the business end of the series.

Indeed, Kallis’ injury as a positive for the visitors is cancelled out by a knee problem for James Anderson. For a team which struggles so to take 20 wickets abroad, they need their best strike bowler fit and firing.

The upshot is that we reckon South Africa will take the series by two games to one. England are capable of winning a Test but South African strongholds at Centurion (not to mention England’s awful record in the first Test of an away series) and Cape Town (venue for the third) make it tough to believe they will win any more than that. South Africa have won 11 of their last 14 at SuperSport Park and have lost only three at Newlands since 1970.

You can get 9-2 widely available about a 2-1 South Africa win – the result of three of their last five home series by the way – but if you are not convinced about the hosts, the 7-1 Ladbrokes offer about a 1-1 draw might be an option.

BetRepublic Recommended Bet:
Back South Africa to win series 2-1
2pts at 9/2 with Stan James