South Africa v England: 3rd ODI Betting Preview
By www.BetRepublic.com

Live on Sky Sports 1, 12.30GMT Friday

The third one-day international between South Africa and England, which starts at Cape Town on Friday, is about as easy as it gets for punters. South Africa are 4-7 (Blue Square, 888Sport) to draw level after going behind in Pretoria while England are 6-4 (Bet365) for a seventh successive win over the hosts.

But the prices are irrelevant. The foolproof plan for day-night contests at this particular venue is to religiously back the side that bats first. Under lights, the ball seams and swings making chasing virtually impossible.

Of the last 14 ODIs played at Newlands under lights only two sides have won batting second. And those matches would not have attracted much wagering because they were mismatches, with India beating Kenya and Kenya beating Canada.

So make sure you are tuned into the action early on Friday. The toss generally happens 30 minutes before the game starts and just in case Sky Sports do not show it live, best to log on to BetRepublic. We will post a PUBit as soon as the toss is made. Then, back the team which is batting first and your work is done.

Of course, the importance of the toss impacts on other markets, too. For example, if batting is so much easier in the first-innings and so difficult in the second we have to be canny when it comes to picking a top-bat wager. In the first innings of the last 10 floodlit ODIs, the top order (Nos 1-4) have dominated with eight top scorers. In dig two, five times has a top-scorer come from Nos 5-11.

We must wait again for the toss before parting with our money. Opening batsmen generally shorten for the side batting second once the flip has been made but that does not concern us because we won’t be touching them thanks very much.

For South Africa, Mark Boucher stands out at 14-1 with Bet365. Boucher has a good record at Newlands, too. He averages 37 there, an increase from his career average of 29. England’s top man has to be Eoin Morgan. Coming in at No 5 he could light up under the beam. With the stats in his favour it is a major surprise to see Ladbrokes going as big as 7-1.

We should also not forget that if the ball is swinging around, then wicketkeepers Boucher and Matt Prior could well be kept busy with edges. Boucher, with that good batting record on his side, and with four catches when Australia were bundled out for 93 three years ago, should attract interest on performance markets.

Bet365 make him 5-6 for 32 points (1pt per run, 10 per catch, 20 per stumping. Spread firm Sporting (with the same scoring system apart from 25 points for a stumping) have him in at 38-43. In his 19 games there, Boucher has an average make-up of 46.

Prior is 5-6 for 35 or more with Bet365. His chances of catches should increase with the fit-again Stuart Broad replacing the wayward Saj Mahmood. South Africa could include Wayne Parnell at the expense of Charl Langeveldt.

BetRepublic Betting Recommendation:
Back the side batting first
5pts with Bet365, Blue Square, 888Sport, Eurobet