South Africa v England: 5th ODI Betting Preview
By www.Betepublic.com

12.30GMT Friday, live on Sky Sports

Who can remember the World Cup in South Africa in 2003? Come on, cast your minds backl to one of the great pounting lessons learned and you could well win yourself a prize for the fifth one-day international between South Africa, who are 8-13 (Blue Sq, 888Sport), and England, 6-4 (Boylesport) at Durban.

Okay, I’ll help out. England, who came into that tournament as no-hopers, would suddenly be labelled world beaters after they trounced Pakistan under the lights at Cape Town. James Anderson produced a brilliant bowling display to bowl their opponents out under lights.

Then, when it came to beating India in Durban, England suffered a heavy defeat. Under lights. Batting second. And those who had got all excited over their potential were left to scurry away with their tails between their legs.

It is a salutary lesson folks because we could be about to see a repeat. Of sorts anyway. South Africa, who find themselves 2-1 down, have suffered in reverse. They were talked up after winning under lights in Cape Town with a good bowling display under lights. Ahead of the game in Durban, they are no-hopers again.

The point is this: the matches discussed so far caused such fluctuations in emotion because they were, effectively, decided on the toss. Batting second under lights at Durban is just as hazardous as it is in Cape Town. Of the last 10 day-nighters at Kingsmead, seven have been won by the side batting first.

So just as we hailed Cape Town as a godsend for punters in this series, we must drive home the message again. Forget what the formbook says, forget the emotional clap trap spouted by supporters of both sides and do one thing, and one thing only: back the side which bats first.

Now whether you choose to do that with the fixed-odds bookmakers, the exchanges or on the spreads it is up to you. But be aware of how prices will react on each of them. The fixed-odds bookies will cut the side which bats first. That is a given. Hell, there will be some people who argue that is worth taking a chance on a 50-50 event that England bat first because it is the epitome of value. That’s fine.

On the exchanges the batting side are likely to shorten at least a whole point. The antidote to such a shift could be to wait, and hope, that they lose a couple of wickets early on and then pile in.

As for the spreads, don’t be afraid to play the supremacy line after the toss. South Africa were a great price in Cape Town on this market. South Africa will be favourites again but only in the late teens most probably.

While we’re on the subject of spreads, it is worth knowing that the average first-innings score, 50-ups and ton-ups make-ups in the last 10 completed day-nights are respectively 255, 62 and 5.

Finally (just to test your resolve) South Africa have lost only two head-to-head series at home. Ever. Come on! Don’t be swayed, folks, stick to the plan.

BetRepublic Betting Recommendation:
5pts back the side batting first
** Blue Square, Eurobet, 888Sport, Bet365, William Hill **