1000 Guineas Betting Preview

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Last Updated on Thursday, 29th Apr 2010, 

Written by jameshipwell

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The StanJames.com 1000 Guineas

When: Sunday, 2 May 2010
Where: Newmarket, Suffolk, UK
What: Group 1 race over 1m for 3yo fillies
Ground: Good to Firm

After the excitement of the 2000 Guineas on Saturday when 20 colts will charge down the Rowley Mile at Newmarket (see our Preview here) it is the fillies' turn on Sunday in the 1000 Guineas.

First run in 1814 the race is run over the same course and distance as the 2000 Guineas and like that race has provided some great champions over the years with recent big names Oh So Sharp, Pebbles and Miesque all triumphing here.

As always the race is expected to be a highly competitive affair, where punters will discover whether or not last season’s leading 2-year-old fillies can carry their momentum into the new flat season.

French filly Special Duty has emerged as the leading contender for this year's ace, coming into the race having won the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes for 2-year-olds in 2009. While she also has a couple of places in other group races, history tells us that she’ll have her work cut out for her if she wants to take the 1,000 Guineas from over a dozen of Europe’s most talented young fillies.

William Hill Prices for the 1000 Guineas 2010
(Click on the link to open an account and claim a free £25 bet)

Special Duty 3/1
Seta 5/1
Music Show 6/1
Pollenator 7/1
Rumoush 7/1
Hibaayeb 20/1
Blue Maiden 25/1
Devoted To You 25/1
Lady Darshaan 25/1
Puff 25/1
Habaayib 33/1
Misheer 33/1
Pipette 33/1
You'll Be Mine 33/1
Nurture 40/1
Sent From Heaven 40/1
Atasari 50/1
Gile Na Greine 50/1

Recent trends

Let's take a look at which boxes winners of this race tend to tick.

Killer stat: The last 8 winners had all finished top 3 on both of their last 2 runs

Age
• All of the last 13 winners had raced at least twice as a 2-y-o
• 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 on their racecourse debut

Betting
• 10 of the last 11 winners were 14/1 or shorterClass
• 12 of the last 13 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a Group race
• 9 of the last 11 winners were rated 105 or higher

Distance
• 10 of the last 11 winners were winning at a mile for the first time

Previous runs
• 13 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 4 last time out (14/14 top 6)
• 11 of the last 12 winners had won 1 of their last 2 starts
• 10 of the last 11 winners were by a sire who raced in Europe
• 8 of the last 11 winners were by a sire who had won a Group 1 race over at least a mile

Other
• 5 of the last 7 winners had made their debut in June or before

Applying the trends

All of the last eleven 1000 Guineas winners had good recent form to their name so if we lose those without a top 4 finish last time out (top 6 if last season), are without 2 top 4 finishes in their last 2 runs and any who haven't won in their last 3 runs we are left with 11 runners

From these 11 we will lose those who have already one over a mile (Hibaayeb, Pipette, Pollenator and Rumoush), any without a top 2 in a Group race (Seta) and any sired by a non-European trained sire (Special Duty).

At this stage we're left with a shortlist of five:

Devoted to You (25-1), Lady Darshaan (25-1), Music Show (6-1), Puff (25-1) and Sent From Heaven (40-1).

BetRepublic Recommended Bet:

1pt back Music Show at 6-1 with William Hill

0.5pt each-way back Puff at 25-1 with William Hill