2000 Guineas Betting Preview

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Last Updated on Wednesday, 28th Apr 2010, 

Written by jameshipwell

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2000 Guineas Betting Preview
By www.BetRepublic.com

The 1000 and 2000 Guineas run at Newmarket in Suffolk are the first so-called 'classics' of the British flat racing season. There are five classics in total and added to the two Guineas we have the Oaks and Derby run at Epsom in early June, and the last one is the st Leger run at Doncaster in Spetember.

All the races are run by three-year-old colts and fillies who race between distances of 1m (Guineas) to 1m4f (Oaks and Derby) and 1m6f (St Leger).

Last season a colt called Sea The Stars blew away his opposition by winning not only the 2000 Guineas and the Derby but also the richest race in Europe at the end of the season - the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in Paris. The three-year-old was quickly retired to stud and chances are we will never see his like again.

This season a whole new gang of fresh talent is getting ready to compete in the 1000 and 2000 Guineas with the top trainers, primarily English, Irish or from Sheikh Mohammed's powerful Godolphin operation, putting their charges through their final paces.

There is usually big betting turnover on the Guineas and punters love to open up ante-post positions throughout the winter months at big prices in the hope of a nice pick-up in May.

This year's major gamble for the 2000 Guineas is the unbeaten St Nicholas Abbey from the all-conquering Aidan O'Brien stable in Ireland which has been backed into 6-4 with all the main bookmakers for the race.

The StanJames.com 2000 Guineas

When: Saturday, 1 May 2010
Where: Newmarket, Suffolk, UK
What: Group 1 race over 1m for 3yo colts and fillies
Ground: Good to Firm

This year's race is eagerly anticipated with the hot favourite St Nicholas Abbey the name on so many ante-post betting slips. But this week former champion jockey Kieren Fallon, who does not yet have a ride in the race, did nothing to reassure bettors of the horse when he said this week the colt could be beaten on Saturday.

Fallon believes St Nicholas Abbey will have to be a "freak" if he is to make a winning return to action in the 2000 Guineas.XXThe colt was unbeaten in three starts as a juvenile and a devastating display in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster in September last year catapulted him to the head of the betting for both the Guineas and the Derby.

However, Fallon feels the quicker ground St Nicholas Abbey will encounter this weekend leaves a question mark over his chances.

The six-times champion jockey, who has ridden four 2000 Guineas winners, said: "I was very impressed with Elusive Pimpernel, who clocked a very good speed figure in the Craven Stakes [a key 2000 Guineas trial].

"He's proven he can come down the hill at Newmarket and has won on fast ground. Although St Nicholas Abbey beat Elusive Pimpernel easily in the Racing Post Trophy the ground was soft that day and this weekend it will be fast. Will St Nicholas Abbey be as effective on fast ground? If he can handle the fast, then he will be a freak."

St Nicholas Abbey is one of three possible runners for O'Brien, who could also saddle Fencing Master and Viscount Nelson in his search for a sixth 2000 Guineas winner.

Also among the favourites are Canford Cliffs from the Richard Hannon stable, Awzaan from the Mark Johnston stable and Al Zir, which hails from the Godolphin outfit.

These are the latest prices from William Hill, Britain's biggest bookmaker:
(Click on the link to open an account and claim a free £25 bet)

St Nicholas Abbey 6/4
Elusive Pimpernel 9/2
Canford Cliffs 7/1
Awzaan 8/1
Al Zir 12/1
Dick Turpin 14/1
Inler 14/1
Xtension 14/1
Fencing Master 16/1
Hearts Of Fire 25/1
Makfi 40/1
Fair Trade 50/1
Greyfriarschorista 50/1
Poet's Voice 50/1
Red Jazz 50/1
Viscount Nelson 50/1
Lord Zdenith 66/1

Which one of these ticks the boxes of a 2000 Guineas winner? Let's have a look at the trends.

Recent Trends

Killer stat: All of the last 14 winners finished in the top 3 last time out (11/14 Won)

Age
• 9 of the last 11 winners won first time out as a JuvenileBetting
• Only 1 favourite has obliged since 1993
• 10 of the last 11 winners were 11/1 or under
• 10 of the last 11 winners came from the top 6 in the betting

Class
• The last 11 winners were all by a Sire who had won a European Group 1 or US Grade 1 Turf
• Every winner since 1991 has been sired by a horse with a stamina index of at least 8f
• 12 of the last 13 winners had run in a Group race (exception once-raced Golan)

Distance
• All of the last 14 winners had won over 6 or 7f
• 10 of the last 11 winners had won at 7f or 1m

Previous runs
• 10 of the last 11 winners had won at least half of all their races
• 13 of the last 14 winners had 5 or less career starts

Other
• Only 3 winners in the last 11 years had won a Group 1 as a juvenile and all were Irish trained
• 10 of the last 14 2000 Guineas winners have been won by Sir Michael Stoute, Saeed Bin Suroor or Aiden O'Brien.

Which horses fit the trends?

At this stage we're left with a shortlist of five: Al Zir, Fencing Master, Lord Zenith, Red Jazz and St Nicholas Abbey.

As this is such a poor race for favourites we will leave St Nicholas Abbey alone as he is way too short to back at 6-4. However, at 16-1 Fencing Master, from the Aidan O'Brien stable fits all the trends and should give us a decent run for our money.

BetRepublic Betting Recommendation:

1pt each-way back Fencing Master in the 2000 Guineas at 16-1 with William Hill