Kentucky Derby Betting Preview

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Last Updated on Thursday, 29th Apr 2010, 

Written by jameshipwell

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Kentucky Derby Betting Preview
By www.BetRepublic.com

What: Kentucky Derby (Grade 1 race for 3-year-olds on dirt over 1m2f)
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky, USA
When: Saturday, 1 May at 11.24pm UK time
Prize Money: $2,000,000

There are many great races across the world. The Grand National, Melbourne Cup, Dubai World Cup, Cheltenham Gold Cup, Velka Pardubicka and the Palio in Siena are all on the 'must-see' list but for the sheer spectacle of the occasion, nothing beats the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

On Saturday it is the 136th running of the Derby and a crowd of 80,000 is expected to cram into the enclosures at Churchill Downs.

There is British interest in the shape of Newmarket trainer Jeremy Noseda's Awesome Act (a 9.0 chance with William Hill) who reckons his charge has a decent shot of taking down the $2 million prize.

What makes it more likely that Noseda can win on Saturday is that former favourite Eskendereya, who beat Awesome Act 10 lengths in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, has been ruled out through injury.

"While it means is that the race now has a wide-open look about it, although it is a shame that the favourite has been ruled out, because he is a proper horse and it detracts from the spectacle," said Noseda this week.

US racing analysts reckon this year's race is a strong renewal with plenty in with a chance. This year the race has attracted a full field of 20 and does indeed have a wide open look about it.

William Hill Prices for the Kentucky Derby 2010 (digital)
(Click on the link fo open an account and claim a free £25 bet)

Lookin At Lucky 4.0
Sidneys Candy 7.5
Awesome Act 9.0
Ice Box 11.0
Devil May Care 15.0
Super Saver 15.0
American Lion 17.0
Dublin 17.0
Mission Impazible 17.0
Noble's Promise 17.0
Line Of David 21.0
Stately Victor 21.0
Conveyance 23.0
Make Music For Me 26.0
Paddy O'Prado 26.0
Jackson Bend 29.0
Deans Kitten 34.0
Discreetly Mine 51.0
Homeboykris 51.0
Backtalk 101.0

So, which horses are the ones that look to be in the shake-up on Saturday evening?

The favourite Lookin At Lucky, drawn in 1, has good form but trainer Bob Baffert, looking to win his fourth Derby, made no attempt to disguise his disappointment after his horse was handed the unfavourable draw right on the inside rail.

Lookin At Lucky was pushed out to as big as 4-1 with Ladbrokes in Britain after the draw on Wednesday, when Baffert suggested jockey Garrett Gomez will have to use all his skill to overcome the inside post.

"Is he still the favourite?" said Baffert. " Thank God I'd already eaten before I heard the draw.These are hardly the words of a trainer who is confident so we'll give the favourite a wide berth and find something at bigger odds.

Another we won't be betting on is second-favourite Sidneys Candy (7.5 with William Hill). The colt has tried to make all in his last three starts but the Derby is no race for front-runners. In fact, only one winner this century - War Emblem in 2002 - has been in the lead after the first half mile so if Sidneys Candy uses these tactics on Saturday the best play could be to lay him in-running on Betfair.

Perhaps there is some value in backing Noble's Promise as wherever Lookin At Lucky finishes, Noble's Promise normally finishes pretty close. He has been beaten less than a length by his rival on three occasions so definitely appeals as an each-way bet at 17.0 with William Hill.

Another horse we think could go well is Ice Box, who was unconsidered when coming with a strong late run to win the Florida Derby last time. He could just get something similar served up here and at 11.0 we're willing to give him a spin.

BetRepublic Betting Recommendation:

1pt each-way Ice Box at 11.0 with William Hill

0.5pt each-way Noble's Promise at 17.0 with William Hill

(Click on the links fo open an account and claim a free £25 bet)