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Betting Preview: Brazilian Grand Prix

jameshipwell
Tuesday, 13th Oct 2009
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Where is the betting value to be had in Sunday's Brazilian Grand Prix? BR motor racing analyst Anthony Jordan has the answers...

Formula One returns to the site of possibly the most dramatic Drivers Title win ever, as the teams and drivers will battle for points at the Interlagos circuit in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Last year, Felipe Massa needed to win the race to claim the championship, with rival Lewis Hamilton needing to finish sixth or lower. The race itself went from wet to dry to wet again, and Felipe Massa shone in front of his home fans to take the victory. As he crossed the line to win the race Lewis Hamilton was in sixth place, and the Ferrari crew and the Brazilian fans started celebrating their driver’s first world championship win. However, Hamilton was rapidly closing on Toyota’s Timo Glock, who was on dry tyres, and passed him into the final corner, silencing the crowd and taking the title by one point! Will this year’s race be as exciting?

Drivers Title:

After his victory in Suzuka last weekend Sebastian Vettel (Best Race Win odds: 3.25) has re-entered the title race. He trails Rubens Barrichello (9.0) by two points and Jenson Button (13.0) by a further fourteen points. This means that if Button scores six points in the course of the next two races he will be crowned champion not matter what the other two drivers do, and if either Barrichello or Vettel fail to finish higher than fifth this weekend or Button finishes third or above, then he will be the champion in Brazil. Of the three, Barrichello will be most motivated to win in front of his own fans, however Vettel has the better car and, barring an accident at the start of the race, should take victory and bring the championship down to the final race in Abu Dhabi. I feel that Button will adopt a more cautious approach to the race, having more to lose than the other two and that he will happily settle for a points finish.

Race Win:

With having nothing to lose, Vettel and Barrichello will be the people to beat this weekend, along with Lewis Hamilton (3.6). Hamilton will push Vettel close in his vastly improved McLaren, but over the course of the race the Red Bull man will have enough to take the 10 points.

Points Finish:

After Vettel, Barrichello and Hamilton who will fill the final five points positions? Jenson Button has already been mentioned, so this leaves four places unfilled. Due to the anti-clockwise, opposite of most Formula One circuits, only the fittest drivers will have the endurance to keep the car on the track for the full 190 miles under the Brazilian sun (or rain clouds!). Despite his leg break in the off-season, Mark Webber (9.0) in the second Red Bull is a cert for a points finish. Kimi Raikkonen (19.0) should also finish in the top eight as he looks to showcase his talents for the 2010 season, as well as Nico Rosberg (34.0).

The other two places should go to Fernando Alonso (34.0), who is off to Ferrari next year, and Robert Kubica (41.0), who takes Alonso’s Renault seat, who will both be looking to show their new teams what they can do. Heikki Kovalainen (41.0) is another driver looking to find a seat for 2010 and will be knocking on the door of a points finish, as will Jarno Trulli (41.0) in the Toyota, Nick Heidfeld (41.0) in the BMW and the Force India of Adrian Sutil (51.0).

Betting Recommendations:

I’ll be backing Sebastian Vettel for the race win this weekend. His performance at Suzuka and the fact that he’ll be highly motivated to bring the championship down to the wire means he edges Hamilton for me. The best value for Vettel is 3.25 with William Hill.

Along with the outright winner, I recommend Rubens Barrichello to finish on the podium in front of his home fans, and make the race in Abu Dhabi a three way title battle. The best value for Barrichello to finish in the top three is 2.75 with Bwin.

Visit BetUK.com for great value betting markets from the Brazilian Grand Prix!



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