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It’s a rhythm thing.
You get in a groove and you don’t want anything to change.
No doubt about it - the Denver Nuggets were in a groove.
They did away with NO in five games in the first round.
Then, in round two, they did away with Dallas in five games.
But now, they haven’t played since May 13th.
And they won’t play again until May 19th.
So, the question is, after a six day lay-off, will the Nuggets still be in rhythm or will they have lost their mojo?
And which Laker’s team will show up?
The one that lost at home to Houston in game one, or the one that dominated that same Houston team by 40 and 19 points in their last two meetings in LA?
During the regular season, LA took three of four from Denver, but two of those losses came way back in November. There is no disputing the fact that the Denver team of today – with Chauncey Billups at the point instead of Alan Iverson - is a much tighter unit than the one LA saw back then. Then again, with just three games left to go in the season, in a game in which Denver was still battling San Antonio, Houston and Portland for home court advantage in the playoffs, they lost at LA by 14 points.
It was surprising that it took LA a game seven at home to get past the Rockets; after all, they swept them during the regular season and Houston lost Yao Ming after game three.
Yet, here were the Lakers, one game away from being eliminated.
Meanwhile, Denver has been hitting on all cylinders, stepping up their defense in the playoffs and executing their offense to near perfection. And speaking of perfection - that is exactly what they have been at home this post season: 6-0 SU and ATS. That, to go along with a 2-2 road record that has seen them go a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road for a perfect 10-0 ATS overall.
And their two road SU losses were by only 2 points each.
Denver has been dominant.
Los Angeles has been inconsistent.
The big question is – do both trends continue in the next round?
Aside from the obvious home court edge, LA has the edge in experience. While Billups has been here before, this is the first year that Carmelo Anthony has won a playoff series.
As a team, Denver hasn’t made it this deep into the post season since 1985.
LA? They were just here last year.
But the real edge comes in personnel match-ups. Against LA this season Carmelo Anthony averaged only 15 points - worse than he did against any other team in the league. LA has the game plan and personnel to shut Carmelo down, and the Nuggets do not win without a huge effort from Anthony.
Sometimes, the road of adversity provides an edge that the easy road does not.
The Nuggets have had the easier road thus far in the post season.
LA has faced adversity. They have been tested. They have passed the tests.
And they are better prepared for battle because of it.
Denver has not been in any playoff wars. And they are not going to have as easy a time of it with LA as they did with New Orleans and Dallas. When they are finally tested, pushed, how will they respond?
It’s been a nice story for Denver thus far, but not every story is a fairy tale with a happy ending.
With all the edges in their favor, LA will advance to the championship round against the Cavs.
Series price:
Lakers -320
Nuggets +270
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