Betting The Top 10

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Last Updated on Thursday, 11th Feb 2010, 

Written by BetRepublic

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by Sonny Palermo

On a typical NCAA basketball card, one of the public’s betting tendencies is to wager on the top ten teams in the country. The list of top teams changes every week, but the public’s love for betting on favorites never changes. Bookies are aware of this. They are also aware that Saturday is a day that sees a lot of “square” money, as most people have Saturday off from work and like to relax and watch a game on TV.

Bettors tend to associate “top ten” with “good” and they’re right, obviously to be in the top ten you have to be good, but that doesn’t translate into “they will cover the spread” – a leap of faith that that many sports bettors make. Last week, eight of the top ten teams played Saturday, and bettors who took the favorites made donations to their bookies in five of the eight games.

Here’s a look at the current top ten, as of 2/9/10, and their ATS records.

Only two of the top five - Syracuse and Villanova - are profitable id="editor_cl".

Three of the bottom five are profitable – Duke, K State and G’Town, with the Hoyas just barely in black.

When you blindly play on the top ten, in their normal role as favorites, you are playing right into the bookie’s hand. ‘Cap each game separately. Think of it in terms of the NFL. Smart bettors only play the Monday night game if it is a game they would have played anyway, as part of a full Sunday card. On Sundays, you have a wide variety of betting options to choose from, while on Monday there is only the one game.

The biggest advantage a bettor has is that on a typical NCAA Saturday there are over one hundred and forty games on the schedule. Making odds, and maintaining them, for 140 games is no picnic for bookmakers – it’s hard to get to know all those teams and their tendencies, and to track their play. So why make it easier for the bookies by playing the popular ones that are under the spotlight and microscope?

A good way to become efficient at betting on college basketball is by picking out a couple of teams in smaller conferences and getting to know their habits and style. Chart them, wager on them, record your play; look for high percentage spots. Doing so gives you the edge over the bookmaker, who is forced to try and follow approximately 300 teams.

You can’t teach an old dog new tricks, so the time to correct unacceptable behavior is when you’re a pup. If your first thoughts are always to check out the top ten teams on the Saturday NCAA card then you deserve the bettor’s equivalent of getting smacked on the nose with a rolled up newspaper - losing your bankroll.

This week’s featured game on Saturday at BetRepublic is Maryland at #7 Duke. Be sure to check us out for an analysis and free pick!