CBI Final – St. Louis at VA Commonwealth

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Last Updated on Monday, 29th Mar 2010, 

Written by GregDempson

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ST. LOUIS AT VA COMMONWEALTH

Line: Rams -9

Over/Under: 130.5

This tourney final is a best out of three with Game 1 going tonight and Game 2 on Wednesday night in St. Louis. The line for the side has remained the same and it is very close to where I make this power rating number (-9.5 points). The Rams are 17–1 straight-up at home this season.

The total has been bet down by two points at some sportsbooks and here are some angles pertaining to the Over/Under. When the total is 129 or greater St. Louis is a perfect 5–0 to the under and 8–1 to the under at 128 or greater. When VA Commonwealth host a team with a losing road record they are 20–9 to the under plus 13–5 under the number when a favorite of –7 to –12.5 points.

NCAA System on the Over

Play March road teams that score 64 or less PPG over the total when the O/U is between 130 and 139.5 points. This system is 45 – 16 = 74% to the over the last five seasons including 32–13 to the over the past three seasons. The average combined score was 142 points and the home teams’ average cover was 9.5 PPG.

NCAA System on Rams

Play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (VA Commonwealth) after a cover as a double digit favorite, in a game involving teams winning 60% to 80% of their games. This system is 12–4 = 75% this season and 69–28 = 71% ATS the past five seasons. If they are laying the same number of points off a double digit favorite win and playing in March the system is 30–8 ATS the past three years.

As we discussed on the Daily Line, I lean to the host team and the over but do not have an official play.