NCAA Final Four Preview

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Last Updated on Friday, 2nd Apr 2010, 

Written by BetRepublic

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After what we’ve witnessed in this year’s NCAA Tournament to date, it’s safe to say that in the Final Four and Championship Game (Mon.) bettors should be prepared for anything.

‘Expect the unexpected’ was almost the motto through the first two rounds as underdogs posted a 24-23-1 ATS record and that was just the beginning. Back-to-back upsets by Butler over Syracuse and Kansas State have helped set the stage for the first-ever #5 vs. #5 battle in Final Four history.

Although the representatives from the East (West Virginia) and South (Duke) regions seem somewhat more expected, there is a lot of debate over whether the oddsmakers’ decision to make Duke a favorite was the right one, given the path the Blue Devils took to get here.

We’ve thrown the stats and systems for both matchups against the wall to see what would stick. Here’s our breakdown for Saturday’s games:

BUTLER vs. MICHIGAN STATE

Line: Bulldogs -1

Over/Under: 126

This game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium located just five miles from the Butler campus. Michigan State played in the title game last year vs. North Carolina and HC Izzo has made it to the Final Four six of the past 12 years. 10 years ago his team won this tournament at (of all places), Indianapolis.

Of the Final Four contenders, Butler faced the strongest non-conference strength of schedule and the Bulldogs key to success will be jumping out to a quick lead to try and let their defense play keep away.

Michigan State boasts a 29-15 ATS mark in tournament play since 1997 and spectacular 8-1 ATS record the past three seasons as an underdog of +6 points or less (including 'Pick em'). The Spartans are also 9-2 ATS as a neutral dog of +3 points or less and hold what we feel is a small edge in matchups vs. this opponent.

As long as your book is offering a line of -1, pointspread does not look like it will be a huge factor for those betting the favorite. Anyone considering a play on the Spartans, however, may consider waiting until gameday in hopes that late fav-action creates an opportunity for a +1.5 line.

BetRepublic.com Pick: Take the Spartans

DUKE vs. WEST VIRGINIA

Line: Blue Devils -2.5

Over/Under: 131

Beating a #1 seed is considered tough but after topping Kentucky (73-66) the Mountaineers are being asked to do it again. When reviewing field goal percentage, free throws, rebounding and turnovers we give Duke the edge in every department and as for scoring margin, one of the top stats we track when `capping the tournament, Duke is the only remaining team that finished top 10 during the regular season.

The line on this game is fluctuating between -2 and -2.5 and although Duke is a team that a lot of people love to hate, they seem to be getting a vote of confidence from the majority (55-percent) of bettors. In this case, we side with the popular vote.

BetRepublic.com Pick: Take the Blue Devils

BONUS: 67% System "live" on "Over" 131 points

Play Neutral court tournament teams over the total when the number is between 130 and 139.5 points in a game involving two top-level teams (win 80-percent or more of their games). This system is 62–30 = 67% since 1997.

All the numbers we’ve presented offer guidance on these matchups but remember, if you’ve been lucky enough to watch most of the games thus far and think you have a good feel for one of the teams, trust your instincts. For a lot of these kids the few remaining games will be the biggest of their life and it’s nearly impossible to predict what could happen in the final seconds if the game is on the line.

Click to watch our March Madness Show - Final Four and good luck with your bets.