NFLX Week 3 – Friday, Aug. 27

Details

Last Updated on Saturday, 28th Aug 2010, 

Written by BetRepublic

Hits: 13986

Okay, it’s Week 3 of the preseason – have you got your betting strategy figured out yet?

Time is of the essence because after Sunday’s game between the Steelers and Broncos all that’s left is a massive bundle of games next Thursday offering about as much certainty as an Afghani border crossing.

We saw prime examples last night of how coaches will vary their Week 3 gameplan into the second-half looking for specific results. HC Belichick, for example, may not have booked Tom Brady into the fourth quarter but with just nine minutes of possession in the first-half, Billy Boy wanted to see his first-teamers click.

It turned into quite a show and together with Green Bay’s 59-24 win against Indy the preseason count is now at 24 overs and 11 unders overall.

A few things to consider when `capping the remaining games:

1. What are teams trying to accomplish?
Second-year coach Jim Schwartz in Detroit, who is coming off a 2-14 SU season, just earned a win at Denver last week. Schwartz can match last year’s total with one more and he’s hosting Cleveland in what will be the Lions preseason home opener. Now that’s motivation. Detroit was also 2-0 SU in last year’s preseason, adding to the case.

2. Is the team returning a lot of starters from `09?
When a team’s offense or defense remains relatively intact it’s more likely we can expect similar results to last year’s preseason games, especially Week 3.

3. Will these two teams meet during the regular season?
Even though this is a dress rehearsal, no coach wants to reveal all his gameplanning secrets to an opponent he’s going to face when it counts. Expect a more vanilla offense from both teams in these situations and consider betting the under.

Here’s a rundown of Friday’s games with some more betting angles to consider.

ATLANTA at MIAMI, 7:00 PM ET
Line: Dolphins -1
Over/Under: 37.5
The Dolphins jumped to a 24-12 half-time lead vs. Jacksonville and held on for a one-point victory (27-26), improving HC Sparano’s preseason record to 9-1 SU. Miami has now won nine-straight warm-up games and the Jaguars are the only team during the streak to score more than 17 points.

Miami did give up a league-high (and franchise-worst) 140 points in the fourth quarter last season so look for them to try and build an early lead and then put the clamp down.

It won’t be easy against a competitive Falcons team that was held to 10 points last week vs. New England. Atlanta is 6-0 SU in Week 3 of the preseason the past six years, outscoring their opposition 148-69.


WASHINGTON at NY JETS, 7:00 PM ET
Line: Jets -5.5
Over/Under: 34
This is the first Redskins road game under HC Shanahan and getting out of town is probably just what the doctor ordered. Albert Haynesworth’s drama has subsided for now and Washington will go to work on its new defensive scheme vs. a New York offense that was help off the scoresheet in Carolina.

The Redskins are going with QB Grossman and for a backup; he has a lot of experience. In NFLX Week 3 last year, teams making their first road start of the preseason went 4-1 SU/ATS and 1-4 O/U.


PHILADELPHIA at KANSAS CITY, 8:00 PM ET
Line: Eagles -2.5
Over/Under: 37.5
Over 70-percent of public money is coming in on the Eagles and it could have something to do with Kansas City’s nine-game ATS losing streak. Once things do get underway following pregame ceremonies for the new Arrowhead, look for a run-first mentality from the Chiefs.

If the home side can establish a ground game we see this settling into a tempo that could keep it well below the scoring average that has so far become the norm this summer. KC’s first team defense has only given up 13 total points in four quarters of football. Opinion: Under


SAN DIEGO at NEW ORLEANS, 8:00 PM ET
Line: Saints -3 (-120)
Over/Under: 43.5
Phillip Rivers, Billy Volek and Jonathan Crompton are all expected to see playing time for a Chargers team making its first road start since December 25. San Diego is 10-1 ATS in the preseason off a home loss but with 28 first-half points last week against Houston, the Saints offense hasn’t skipped a beat.

New Orleans has depth at all positions, too, and although it’s a big number we can’t justify a play on this game staying under the total.