NFLX Week 4 Previews

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Last Updated on Thursday, 2nd Sep 2010, 

Written by BetRepublic

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The NFL preseason is wrapping up with a blast of games Thursday and no matter how many times we tell ourselves, “No, it’s too risky,” a lot of us are still tempted by a small piece of Week 4 action.

If you’re one of the bettors that can sit back and let these scrimmages between second and third teamers unfold, we shall see you next week when the real fun begins.

But if you’re considering a dabble or two from the Big 16, just to get the taste, here’s a thing or two that may be able to help you out.

After all, we’re only human.


BUFFALO AT DETROIT, 7:00 PM
Line: Lions -5
Over/Under: 38.5
As the Bills enter the Matt Leinart sweepstakes it adds incentive to QBs Edwards and Fitzpatrick, both of whom could see time in Detroit. The Lions defense has shown improvements, and playing their second of back-to-back home games also tips the scales in Detroit’s favor.


CINCINNATI AT INDIANAPOLIS, 7:00 PM
Line: Bengals -6.5
Over/Under: 36.5
There’s no question who this game means more to and Cinci has won the past four preseason matchups SU/ATS by a combined score of 99-23. Indy is 0-3 SU/ATS in the preseason and all three final scores dwarfed the posted total but while Sherriff Manning and the rest of the team wait for the league to do something about those pesky backfield umpires, we’re staying away.


NEW ENGLAND AT NY GIANTS, 7:00 PM
Line: Giants -3
Over/Under: 37.5
New York is 0-2 SU/ATS in the two games without QB Manning and the Patriots, who were just edged by the lowly Rams in Foxboro, are 14-3 ATS in their past 17 games against teams off back-to-back losses.


NY JETS AT PHILADELPHIA, 7:30 PM
Line: Eagles -1.5
Over/Under: 34
Don’t expect what we haven’t seen from New York’s offense to suddenly show up in this game. HC Ryan opens with back-to-back home games vs. the Ravens and Patriots and he’s saving it. We lean to Philly covering this small number.


CAROLINA AT PITTSBURGH, 7:30 PM
Line: Steelers -6.5
Over/Under: 37.5
QB Leftwich is the overwhelming favorite to be the Week 1 starter vs. Atlanta and Steelers fans are praying his performance in Denver was simply a product of not getting enough first-team snaps in practice. We should see Leftwich and Dixon in this game but look for Pittsburgh to feature its ground game.

Pittsburgh gave up 34 points to the Broncos, just the second time in 16 preseason games under HC Tomlin that the team has allowed more than 17 points. Ugly turnovers were a major contributor and the rule tonight will be: If it’s not there – throw it away.
The past four preseason meetings between these two ended with 3 unders and a push.


ATLANTA AT JACKSONVILLE, 7:30 PM
Line: Jaguars -2.5
Over/Under: 37.5
Jacksonville’s priorities coming into camp were getting better play from its defensive front seven and better protection from the O-line. They’ve shown some improvement but with three of the team’s first four games coming at home the Jags can’t afford to stumble out of the gate. Expect a strong effort from a home team vs. a Falcons team playing its second-straight game away from home.

Atlanta also opens on the road against the Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh Steelers. The Falcons are 6-1 SU in Week 1 the past seven years and are 6-2 SU in their last eight regular season inter-Conference games, hinting HC Smith will make next week a priority.
Pick: Take the Jaguars


TAMPA BAY AT HOUSTON, 8:00 PM
Line: Texans -2.5
Over/Under: 36.5
Tampa Bay has now stayed under the total in nine of its past 10 games, including pre- and regular season, and they’ve demonstrated great difficulties moving the ball. It won’t be easy against a Houston defense whose second teamers have done a remarkable job picking up the scheme.

The Texans did suffer a fourth quarter breakdown in Week 1 against Arizona but that was on the road. Still we recommend looking at a first-half play in this game and side with the home team.
Pick: Texans (-.5), first-half


BALTIMORE AT ST. LOUIS, 8:00 PM
Line: Rams -3
Over/Under: 38
During his tenure Ravens HC Harbaugh has taken a methodical approach to preseason, progressively adding more to his offense as the summer rolls along. This year Baltimore has scored 17, 23 and 24 points as part of a 3-0 SU/ATS record and all three games have stayed under by at least 3 points.

While the offense will be scaled back today, the defensive gameplan will revolve around keeping the Rams to single digits, if possible. The Ravens have not allowed more than 12 this year in the preseason and the average points allowed since NFLX Week 2, 2008 is 11.9 per game.

Since 2005 Baltimore’s record during the preseason is 5-18 O/U and it sets up well for an "Under" tonight. One caveat, however, is that the Ravens have gone 1-3 O/U each year from 2005-2009. With a 0-3 O/U so far in 2010, the law of averages suggests that an "Over" is due.


DENVER AT MINNESOTA, 8:00 PM
Line: Vikings -4.5
Over/Under: 35
The Vikings play one week today and that adds up to a run-first gameplan vs. Denver. Don’t get too excited, though, as Adrian Peterson will likely not touch the football. The Broncos are 9-1 the past 10 years in the preseason finales but HC McDaniels was only there for one of those wins and it was a home game.

Denver had its share of primetime fun last week against Pittsburgh. Our recommendation for this game is to bet the "Under".


GREEN BAY AT KANSAS CITY 8:00 PM
Line: Chiefs -5.5
Over/Under: 40.5
Green Bay has a history of hitting turbo drive in the preseason finale (4-0 O/U past four years), but after what we’ve seen already (24, 27, 59 points), is there any need. We lean towards the Chiefs but keep in mind, KC is 1-14 ATS in its past 15 preseason games.


NEW ORLEANS AT TENNESSEE, 8:00 PM
Line: Titans -7.5
Over/Under: 41
It’s hard to believe the Titans are getting action against a Saints team that is averaging 32.7 points and 422 yards of offense through the first three games of the preseason. Both Saints backup QBs, Daniel and Ramsey, have looked sharp but remember New Orleans opens the season on Thursday so this will be a practice squad competing.

Titans HC Fisher has given his offense the green light the past five years, averaging 45.4 points per game during that span.


CHICAGO AT CLEVELAND, 8:00 PM
Line: Bears -2.5
Over/Under: 36.5
Bears HC Smith has played "Over" the total just once in the finale during his six years at the helm but new O-Co Martz could have a say in changing that. These teams have made a tradition of wrapping up against each other and five of the last six have stayed under this number, but keep in mind that the "Over" was in 2009.


MIAMI AT DALLAS, 8:00 PM
Line: Dolphins -1.5
Over/Under: 37.5
Cowboys rookie WR Dez Bryant was originally expected by some to partake in this game since he is reportedly game ready but team owner Jerry Jones said it isn’t so. The line has flip-flopped all the way from Cowboys (-2.5) and between Sparano and Parcells, who both like to go into the season on a winning note, we lean Dolphins.


SEATTLE AT OAKLAND, 10:00 PM
Line: Raiders -3
Over/Under: 37.5
Oakland’s run game is turning downhill and through three preseason games averages 99.0 yards per. Look for them to run-up at least 100 vs. a Seattle team that is fourth-worst (127.7 RYPG) at stopping the run and for this game to sail "Over" the total. Even though its preseason, buy the hook down to 37 if you are playing this one.
Pick: Over


WASHINGTON AT ARIZONA, 10:00 PM
Line: Cardinals -6
Over/Under: 37
When the Cardinals announced that Derek Anderson will start at quarterback vs. the Redskins, the token 3-point advantage usually given to home teams immediately doubled. HC Whisenhunt is 0-4 SU in Week 4 of the preseason the past four years but the Cardinals players seem to have rallied around the team’s resistance over tiptoeing into this season with an unproven starter.

HC Shanahan always made this game a priority and in his last nine years at Denver was 8-1 ATS. Getting the additional points makes the road team even more attractive, especially with the battle being waged for ranking on a run-game that so far has been a big disappointment.


SAN DIEGO AT SAN FRANCISCO, 10:00 PM
Line: 49ers -3
Over/Under: 35.5
The skirmish between WR Crabtree and TE Davis was handled well by HC Singletary and it sends out a message to bettors, players on the team and opponents what kind of smash-mouth football San Francisco is looking to play.

It tells very little about how the Niners will approach this game but last year the Chargers won 26-7 in a game where neither team used starting QBs or RBs.

Of note, San Francisco carries a five game SU winning streak into this contest dating back to Week 16 of last season (4-0-1 ATS).


Weather Report: Forecasts as of 12 pm ET on Thursday indicate that weather should be a factor in any of these matchups.

SU: Straight-up
ATS: Against the Spread

Lines provided by Sportsbetting.com