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BetRepublic.com NFL Divisional Round Picks

BetRepublic
Thursday, 14th Jan 2010
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After a split in the first two Wild Card games we felt good going into Sunday with the Patriots (-3) and a play on the "Over" in the Green Bay at Arizona game. New England fell flat but the Cards and Packers picked us up – and didn’t waste any time doing it either, posting the highest scoring NFL playoff game on record.

 

This week we have three plays for you to consider.

 

ARIZONA (10-6) AT NEW ORLEANS (13-3)

Line: Saints -7

Over/Under: 57

Coming off an overtime victory against Green Bay, the Arizona Cardinals are listed by online sportsbooks as a road dog for the sixth time this season. While a 4-1 SU (4-0-1 ATS) record in that spot looks impressive, the competition Arizona faced away from home this season was nothing like the offensive power the Saints bring to the table id="editor_cl".

 

New Orleans comes into this game on a three-game losing streak and will look to get its offense moving early. With time in the pocket and speedy wideouts that can stretch the field, QB Brees will have multiple options against a secondary that lacks depth. We also look for the Saints to make good use of a diverse rushing attack.

 

Arizona flashed its potential last week at home but cannot expect the Louisiana Superdome to be nearly as friendly. The Saints defense gave up a lot of yards in the past month but FS Sharper has done an excellent job shoring up a secondary that was the team’s Achilles heel in 2008. Note that DE Grant was placed on IR after an injury in the loss to Carolina so the Saints have signed 10-year vet Paul Spicer to use in the rotation. Getting pressure on Warner is a key to this matchup and Grant was second on the team in sacks.

 

With as much offense as these teams possess, we feel this number is too high for game of this magnitude and our play is on the total.

BetRepublic.com Pick: Take the "Under"

BALTIMORE (9-7) AT INDIANAPOLIS (14-2)

Line: Colts -6.5

Over/Under: 44.5

A lot was said about HC Caldwell’s decision to pull QB Manning in the loss to the Jets but the AFC’s No. 1 team is rested and ready to take the field vs. a Raven defense playing its fourth straight game away from home. Indianapolis will prepare for a ruthless pass rush from the front seven but not only was Manning’s protection tops in the league this year; there is simply no one better at making pre-snap adjustments. Manning’s top two targets (Wayne, Clark) along with newcomers Garcon and Collie should help this offense prevail.

 

Baltimore’s offense did not find a balance this year, relying heavily on a run-game that helped stow away the win last week after the defense built a lead. If QB Flacco is forced to turn to a passing attack we don’t see any major mismatches he will be able to exploit. The pass rush from DEs Mathis and Freeney is one of the best combinations around and coverage on the corners this season has not suffered with the absence of Bob Sanders.

 

Indianapolis has won seven-straight games against the Ravens straight-up, six in a row ATS and five-of-seven by more than a TD. We like those trends to continue.

BetRepublic.com Pick: Take the Colts

DALLAS (11-5) AT MINNESOTA (12-4)

Line: Vikings -2.5

Over/Under: 45.5

Other than bumps and bruises from a long season, neither of these teams comes into this contest with any glaring weaknesses. Dallas shushed critics last week, following up on Week 17’s triumph with an even bigger win over Philadelphia and the Vikings are rested after blowing out the New York Giants 44-7 two weeks ago.

 

Road teams are 12-2 ATS in the past 14 Conference semi-final games but Minnesota at home this year has been dominant. The Vikes are 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS; scoring 27-plus points in each contest. RB Peterson’s numbers are down but look for QB Favre to utilize the same system he’s had success with all year: Play-action to setup the pass.

 

The Dallas pass rush led by LBs Spencer and Ware is dangerous but so are all of Favre’s targets. One thing Minnesota will have to be conscious of is turnovers, as both Favre and Peterson have a history.

 

QB Romo is doing a good job spreading the ball among WRs Austin, Crayton, Williams and TE Witten but we know what kind of pass rush the Vikings can bring. Dallas has a run-game, too, but Minnesota stopped the run as well as any other team this year and after a bye they should be strong. RB Barber (knee) is also banged up and as soon as you take any one part away from the 3-D rush, the Cowboys ground-game becomes average.

 

Favre 2-7 ATS lifetime vs. the Cowboys but one playoff win does not assure Dallas a ticket to Miami. This game is a difficult one to call and we do not have a play to suggest.

BetRepublic.com Pick: No play

NEW YORK JETS (9-7) AT SAN DIEGO (13-3)

Line: Chargers -7

Over/Under: 42

During two separate three-game slides this season it looked as if the Jets were done but a 5-1 SU/ATS run down the stretch advances New York further than they’ve gone since the 2004 season.

 

Rushing and defense has been the foundation and shutdown CB Revis earned a trip to the Pro Bowl by defending top WRs better than anyone else in the game. San Diego has more high-grade targets than almost every team New York has faced however, and we that being the difference in this game.

 

San Diego’s defense does not get a lot of recognition but stopping the run has improved throughout the year and that is the only real threat New York brings to the table id="editor_cl". QB Sanchez is just as likely throwing an INT as he is a TD pass and the Chargers have defended the pass fairly well at home.

 

Joe Flacco is the only rookie QB in NFL history to win his first two playoff games and Sanchez (1-0) is in a difficult spot trying to become the second.

BetRepublic.com Pick: Take the Chargers

Last Week: 2-2

Overall Record: 47-40 (54-percent)

Sides: 33-29; Totals: 14-11

 

For final comments join us Sunday at the BR Bullboard 45 minutes before kickoff. We’ll recap Saturday’s game, update late line moves and discuss strategies for betting the final two games of the weekend.


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