A 1-1 Saturday seemed par for our playoff course but as we experienced on Sunday, going into battle with Norv Turner in command brings a certain sense of uneasiness to the situation. New York’s straight-up win capped the divisional round and dropped our post-season record to 3-4 overall.

This week we offer one selection for you to consider.

NEW YORK JETS (11-7) AT INDIANAPOLIS (15-2)

 

Line: Colts -7.5

Over/Under: 39

This week Indianapolis welcomes New York in the AFC Final and although some of the doubt surrounding the Jets has been erased following back-to-back playoff wins, the challenge that awaits Sunday in Lucas Oil Stadium is perhaps the toughest hurdle in all of football.

Peyton Manning leads one of the league’s most elite offenses and for this road-weary defense it will be a step up in class. In a 20-3 win vs. Baltimore in the division finals Manning used his usual play-makers, Reggie Wayne (8-63, 1 TD) and Dallas Clark (7-59, 0 TD), for key third down situations that kept the chains moving. But it is also the supporting cast, the other five targets that Manning spread 15 passes to, that make this unit hard to defend.

Indy’s offense scored 27-plus points in the four games that preceded the controversial Week 16 loss to New York that will forever live in infamy with the Colts faithful and there is no real evidence that an opponent can come into this building and stop the home side from doing so again.

New York’s D is based on a shutdown, Pro Bowl corner (Revis) that can all but eliminate his opponent’s top WR. The rest of the secondary has excellent coverage skills and the front seven can blitz with the best of them. It helped New York to a lead in nearly every defensive category during the regular season but 15 out of 16 times the Jets weren’t playing this offense and in the one game where they did face Indy, it was mostly vs. the Junior-V edition.

Jets QB Mark Sanchez is going to be expected to do his part running the offense but the majority of the time that just means handing the ball to any one of his talented backs and stepping out of the way. The Indianapolis defense gets a bad rap for not being able to defend the run but it’s actually a bit of myth. Just ask the explosive Baltimore Ravens RB trio that managed 78 yards last week on 16 carries. So far New York has rushed for 171 yard (CIN) and 169 yards (SD) but the Colts will be gameplanning for this and do have more run-stopping ability than they are given credit for.

The Colts secondary had a facelift this season and helped by the speed-rush of DEs Freeney and Mathis will be able to limit New York through the air. If the Colts can keep the run-game on a short leash and prevent big gains that are becoming common place in this year’s playoffs, it is going to result in stalled drives and a lot of time spent on the field by New York’s defensive unit. Eventually this could lead to holes in the coverage and gaps on the line that Manning and the offense will take full advantage of.

Oddsmakers opened with a line of Colts -7 and that was quickly bet up to the current line. We recommend buying back down to the TD and going with the superior offense to finish the job it started in Week 16.

MINNESOTA (13-4) AT NEW ORLEANS (14-3)

Line: Saints -4.5

Over/Under: 52.5

Two of the most competitive quarterbacks in the game hook up when Minnesota travels to New Orleans to meet the Saints in the NFC Championship game. In the divisional round Brett Favre continued to post career numbers, leading the Vikings to a 34-3 triumph over Dallas. It was much the same for Drew Brees and the Saints, winning 45-14 vs. Arizona.

Oddsmakers are giving New Orleans a true home advantage and rightfully so. The Louisiana Superdome is one of the loudest stadiums in the league and Brees’ offense was unbeatable at home until a Week 15 win by Dallas that led to an 0-3 SU/ATS conclusion to the season.

Brees will need to be quick in the pocket to avoid a Vikings pass-rush that led the league in sacks and applied constant pressure last week on Tony Romo. Minnesota DE Edwards (Check status) will be a key component for the front seven as he draws attention away from Jared Allen. Edwards (leg) was injured last game and he looks on track for Sunday; it’s just a question of how effective he will be. Don’t expect Brees to go down nearly as often as Romo (6 sacks) regardless of who starts, as the Saints get the ball out quicker and have more weapons to choose from in the passing game.

New Orleans will stretch the field early but also look to incorporate a good balance of the run game. RB Bush arguably played his best game of his career (5 carries, 4 catches, TD, 191 all-purpose yards) and along with RBs Thomas, Hamilton and Bell; this could be the most diverse rushing attack in the league. Minnesota has done an excellent job all year shutting down the run with inside linemen Pat and Kevin Williams but with the threat of New Orleans’ passing game, won’t be able to bring an extra man into the box for support.

Offensively Minnesota has hooked its wagon to Favre and the Vikings possess some of the speediest weapons and more elusive receivers in the game with Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin (Check status). Watch for D-Co Williams to unleash a lively coverage scheme in the secondary that allows his play-makers to go after the ball, not sit back and wait for things to happen. That was one of the things that hampered this team late in the season and it was prompted by injury but New Orleans returned to form last week vs. Arizona.

RB Adrian Peterson cannot be forgotten but the No. 1 back needs to step up in this game to keep the ball-hawking secondary of the Saints, led by former Viking Darren Sharper, concerned with more than just Favre throwing downfield. The Saints were exposed early against the Cardinals when Tim Hightower galloped for a 70-yard run on the first play of the game. But after that run the Saints completely shut down the Cards, holding them to 31 rushing yards.

This game could be decided by whichever All-Pro QB puts on the best performance on game day. Will it be youth, or experience? We feel the matchup is too close to call and at this point don’t have an official selection for this game.

BetRepublic.com Pick: No pick

Playoffs: 3-4

Overall Record: 48-42 (53-percent)

Sides: 34-30; Totals: 14-12

For final comments join us Sunday at the BR Bullboard 30 minutes before kickoff.