BetRepublic.com Week 17 NFL Picks

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Last Updated on Saturday, 2nd Jan 2010, 

Written by BetRepublic

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It’s Week 17 and after cutting through the leftover fog from a festive holiday week capped by a New Year’s college football betting extravaganza, bettors are now challenged with a whole new list of variables on Sunday’s card. Who will start, how long will they play and the ever-puzzling question for teams like Jacksonville or Washington: Does anyone on the team even care anymore?

Of course we are all given the option of passing on the final list of games altogether but that’s easier said than done after slugging your way through four month of `capping the weekly card.

We’ve narrowed our selections down to two plays and will try to finish the season on a high-note after a 2-3 record in Week 16. Too many of the games offer more questions than answers and unless you’re good buddies with one of the head coaches or coordinators it’s nearly impossible to eliminate some of the intangibles. Once playoffs begin and the teams get back to business we will get back to working the full-card.


PITTSBURGH (8-7) at MIAMI (7-8)
Line: Steelers -3
Over/Under: 45
Two teams still alive for a playoff berth but both need a win and plenty of help. Injuries to key players from each roster could affect starting line-ups but given the situation, anyone that can play in this game will. Expect to see RB Mendenhall handling most of the rushing for Pittsburgh while RB Williams (shoulder) should start for Miami, even after leaving last week’s game against Houston.

Pittsburgh’s defense will have to be at its best after getting a couple of breaks last week vs. the Ravens. MIA is 8-4 ATS since Chad Henne took over but offensive points per game have been on the decline as opponents adjust.

Bad coverage teams was a major Achilles heel for the Steelers but special teams coach Bob Ligashesky appears to have solved the problem. Neither opponent (BAL, GB) was able to gain much of an advantage the past two weeks in the return game.

Miami is 0-3 ATS the past three times oddsmakers listed them as a non-divisional home dog, including last season’s wild card game against the Ravens. We are taking the proven winners to keep up their playoff fight for at least one more game.
BetRepublic.com Pick: Take the Steelers


ATLANTA (8-7) AT TAMPA BAY (3-12)
Line: Falcons -1.5
Over/Under: 41.5
A letdown year for Atlanta will be somewhat ratified by a straight-up win against a suddenly surging Buccaneers squad that has won two games in a row for the first time since November, 2008. Tampa’s run-game came untracked against the Saints, led by a 129- yard day by Cadillac Williams. It’s helped nudge the Bucs into the triple-digit zone for per game average (105.9) but the team still ranks 23rd in the league for rushing. Atlanta is 17th at defending the run but given Williams’ previous four games where he was held under 60 rushing yards in each, the Falcons should be up to the task.

QB Matt Ryan is the key to this game and although the sophomore has struggled away from home he is 2-0 SU/ATS since returning from injury and will be looking to limit mistakes vs. a Bucs team that has given him trouble. Ryan has matured as a player since his only other trip to Tampa (24-9 loss, Week 2/08) and could help right the ship with a win and cover to close the season.
BetRepublic.com Pick: Take the Falcons

Last Week: 2-3
Overall Record: 43-38 (53-percent)
Sides: 30-28; Totals: 13-10

For final comments on all the games come join us Sunday at the BR Bullboard. It gets going 45 minutes before kickoff with injury updates, line moves and best bets from all the guys at BetRepublic.com.