NFL ‘Season Win Total’ Trends

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Last Updated on Friday, 3rd Sep 2010, 
Written by BetRepublic
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Week 4 of the preseason has mercifully been put down and short of bolstering the league’s argument to reduce the exhibition schedule, very little else was accomplished.

Then again, Pittsburgh did use its win over Carolina to help settle a QB controversy between ‘bad’ and ‘worse’. And the Giants were able to rule out the possibility of ever letting QB Rhett Bomar touch the football in a regular season game, so not all was lost.

Online sportsbooks also had a chance this week to wheel out the customized versions of the ‘Season Win Totals’ (SWT) and there are few key numbers worth noting.

Since we were on the topic anyway, let’s start with the Giants.

New York (8.5 OV -125) was doomed right from the start last year when oddsmakers hung a 10.5 around their necks. Teams with double-digit projections were 0-4 O/U in 2008 and while the number improved slightly in `09 (2 overs, 3 unders), it was still a losing proposition.

SEEING DOUBLE
Pittsburgh (9-7 SU) was another "Under" achiever last year, as was the Patriots (10-6 SU). Both have seen their number trimmed this year but oddsmakers are still asking for high clearance on the Ravens (10 OV -120), Cowboys (10 UN -120), Packers (10 OV -130), Colts (11 OV -125), Saints (10.5 UN -130) and Chargers (10.5 UN -130).
Only two of the past nine teams have gone "Over" double-digit totals

SUPERBOWL LETDOWN
The Steelers had another factor working against them last year, as only four Lombardi Trophy winners in the past nine years have gone "Over" the following season. This year that applies to the Saints, who opened in June at 10.5 UN (-140).

BEST IN THE BUSINESS
The Colts have the highest number on the board and with 8 overs and 1 under in the past nine years, they’ve earned it. Indianapolis holds the best SWT record in the past decade.

Honorable mention also goes to Houston (8.5 OV -110). The Texans seem to fly under the ATS radar during the regular season and with futures it’s more of the same. Since 2004 Houston is on a tidy 5-1 run to the "Over".

FAVRE WATCH
Old No. 4 is on a streak of his own, as Favre-led teams have cleared the total four-straight seasons. Minnesota is 5-4 O/U the past while and 2010’s number (OV 9.5) ties a nine-year high for them.

TEXAS LEAGUER
Dallas has not linked back-to-back "Over" or "Under" years together since 2002. After clearing the mark with an 11-5 SU record in `09, be on the lookout for a big letdown.

TEAM TOTAL TIDBITS
Year with most Pushes: 2004 (4)
Year with most “and-a-half” numbers posted: 2005 (0 pushes)
Year with most "Over" winners: Tie between 2007-2008 (18 each)
Average number "Over" winners from 2001-2006: 14.3

If you do decide to make any investments on NFL Team Win Totals, drop by the Stadium and post them up. If you want to check line moves through the summer, Jarvis has been tracking the numbers since June and its all there in his ‘Line Movement’ thread.

See you there.