NFL Preview – AFC West

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Last Updated on Friday, 27th Aug 2010, 

Written by BetRepublic

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Key player rumblings with any team during the off-season will have a slight impact on divisional futures, but when it’s the heavy favorite going through a personnel crisis it can send shockwaves through the odds for all four teams.

With Chargers WR Vincent Jackson still unsigned, waves of doubt are starting to attract a lot of attention from bargain hunters to the have-nots in the West. (Two weeks ago the Chiefs were +650!)

Here are the current odds along with a look at each team’s situation.

Odds to Win Division: Chargers (-333), Chiefs (+350), Broncos (+600), Raiders (+700)

DENVER BRONCOS
2009 Record: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS
2010 SWT: Over 7.5 (-130)
A 6-0 start to last season didn’t earn first-year HC McDaniels overwhelming support but it temporarily silenced most critics. A lot of people are now just watching in fascination as young gun QBs Orton, Quinn and Tebow lineup to take their turn. RB Moreno (hamstring) was better than expected as a rookie and should take on more of a workload in his sophomore season. His injury has given the other backs ample opportunity to prove their worth and Moreno is expected to be 100-percent for Week 1.

And as for WR Marshall’s replacement – take your pick. Through the first two weeks of preseason, 10 different targets have at least two receptions. First rounder Demaryius Thomas (foot) was brought in to compliment a corps that works on McDaniels’ “open man gets it” committee but he is questionable for the opener.

The blitz-happy defense has a new coordinator (internal promotion) and he’ll have plenty to work with but there are questions about how the aging unit will perform against upper-level offenses.

Bettor’s Note – Week 10 vs. Kansas City: Denver plays back-to-back home games before a Week 8 trip to Wembley Stadium where they’ll face San Francisco. A bye week is next and here we’ll look for oddsmakers to overcompensate against a Chiefs team playing its second of back-to-back divisional road games. Take the Broncos

BR Outlook: Few teams have seen more downward pressure since books first released lines than the Broncos. Replicating a 6-0 SU start looks difficult with games vs. the Colts, Titans and Ravens but finishing will be equally hard after additional travel, especially if playoffs are out of the picture. We lean towards the "Under" 7.5 wins.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2009 Record: 4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS
2010 SWT: Over 6.5 (-140)
Kansas City doubled its win total in Stage 1 of its rebuild, capped perfectly with a 20-point win at Mile High. An improved O-line and two-back system (Charles, Jones), both of which will help QB Cassel, gives immediate hope for a better offense. First round pick Eric Berry is also expected to play a role bolstering a defense that was 30th in total yards allowed.

Bettor’s Note – Week 5 at Indianapolis: KC will see a wide array of talent in the first three weeks before their bye. Since realignment in 2002, teams given a break in the first round of bye weeks have performed exceptionally well the following week, covering the spread at better than 70-percent. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS as double-digit dogs the past four years. Take the Chiefs

BR Outlook: HC Haley had his guys playing hard last season and with the help of new O-Co Weis and D-Co Crennel, should be able to limit the number of blowout losses and change the outcome in closer games. Kansas City lost four times in 2010 by seven points or less. Seven wins are in the picture; unfortunately the juice leaves a bad taste.

OAKLAND RAIDERS
2009 Record: 5-11 SU, 8-8 ATS
2010 SWT: Over 6 (-125)
A lack of playmakers, erratic defense resulting in the second-worst penalty yard differential in the league and a revolving door at the QB position are just a few of the problems behind a recession that started in 2003. The Raiders are just 29-83 SU since losing to Tampa in the Super Bowl and sportsbooks have pegged them to finish below .500 once again.

Bettor’s Note – Week 2 vs. St. Louis: Two defenses screaming to be average vs. two offenses that will take all year to figure things out equals a low scoring football game. Take the Under

BR Outlook: Red zone efficiency slipped to 30th (from 29th) but HC Cable remains after matching the five wins produced in the season he took over midway. With QB Campbell and a pair of top defensive drafts we see improvements but the Raiders need to develop a rhythm. They are 1-7 ATS with Cable following his nine SU wins and back-to-backs would go a long way with Raider Nation. (Note: OAK won SU in Wk 17/08, thus no game-after stat)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
2009 Record: 13-3 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
2010 SWT: Over 10.5 (-115)
It’s not often a 13-3 team undergoes such an overhaul and while the pieces are still in place it’s going to take time for this offense to develop the level of chemistry we saw in 2010. Red Zone offense was 10th and early on we will be looking for more of a ball-control style that chews up time on the clock. The Chargers were 6th in turnover differential so if D-Co Rivera’s aggressive schemes continue to stall drives, the net result could be lower scoring games than what we’ve seen in the past. Inflated totals may provide good "Under" opportunities.

Bettor’s Note - September: San Diego’s combined record in the first four weeks under HC Turner is 5-7 SU and 4-7-1 ATS. It’s very likely the Chargers will be favored each game through at least Week 6 and bettors may find underdog value in Week 2 vs. Jacksonville or Week 4 when Arizona comes to town.

BR Outlook: It takes more than a 2-3 SU start to worry Turner and after reeling off 11-straight wins starting in Week 7, now we know why. The division title is a strong likelihood but at the current price bettors would have to take it one step further. San Diego currently pays 5-to-1 to win the AFC.

SU: Straight-up
ATS: Against the Spread

Lines provided by Sportsbetting.com