NFLX Week 3, Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Denver

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Last Updated on Sunday, 29th Aug 2010, 

Written by BetRepublic

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With 15 games in the book for Week 3 of the preseason, sportsbooks are getting ready for the onslaught of real futures betting to begin. Not ‘real’ as in, “If you’ve made a bet before Week 3, you don’t know what you’re talking about”, but ‘real’ as in ‘real heavy volume’.

Starters from both sides of the ball played well into the second-half in most games, some first-teamers even seeing fourth quarter action. Other than injuries, we now have a pretty good picture for what kind of team will take the field when the regular season gets underway September 9th.

Lines on the some of the divisional favorites such as San Diego (-333) and San Francisco (-110) will see prices rise. Meanwhile, picking a winner from the AFC East, where the Jets (+125), Patriots (+130) and Dolphins (+300) all share a 2-1 record, probably got a lot tougher for some.

We’ll spend the next two weeks breaking down the divisions, noting line moves and checking the ‘Season Win Totals’ chart. We’ll also have our official picks.

For now, here’s a look at the final meaningful game of the 2010 preseason.

PITTSBURGH (2-0 SU/ATS) at DENVER (0-2 SU/ATS), 8:00 PM ET
Line: Steelers -2.5
Over/Under: 37.5

The depth chart for QBs in Pittsburgh has not been this confusing for quite some time but from HC Tomlin’s chair it’s just organized chaos. Dennis Dixon will start tonight in Denver, Byron Leftwich will start Week 1 vs. Atlanta and Ben Roethlisberger, barring any more missteps, will be back under center just in time to host the Browns in Week 6.

Unless Big Ben start tonight. And then...

Tomlin has been discreet but we know he wants to see Dixon get extensive time with the first unit. First-round draft pick Maurkice Pouncey will start at center so expect Roethlisberger to take the first two series. The bottom line is that however the rotation works the Steelers have a definitive edge over Denver at this position.


Kyle Orton will see extensive time against the Steelers defense and although he looked good against the Lions last week, tossing a pair of touchdown passes, throwing into coverage will be much tougher today.

Denver’s run game has not been in sync, either, partly due to injuries and partly due to a lack of talent. Newly signed RB Fargas had nine carries for 13 yards vs. the Lions and could be running out of gas. LenDale White returned to practice this week and he is a game-time decision, but if he starts it provides an immediate boost.

POINT PROJECTIONS
The high scoring trend of the preseason was offset by 3 overs and 6 unders on Saturday. More playing time for the starters revealed defensive strength for clubs like Carolina, while supposed offensive juggernauts like the Cowboys looked more like a Junior-V team.

Overall we’ve seen 28 overs and 20 unders this preseason, or 58-percent to the "Over". The total for this game opened at 36.

TEAM TENDENCIES
The Steelers have 1 over and 1 under so far in the preseason. They’ve scored 23 and 24 points and given up 7 and 17 last week to the Giants.

- Pittsburgh’s defense has held 14 of its past 15 preseason opponents to 17 points or less

- Pittsburgh’s Over/Under count since Week 3 of 2008 is 1 over, 6 unders and 1 push

Denver has played over the total in both preseason games this year but were 2-2 O/U last year in HC McDaniels’ first preseason.

- Denver has held only one of its past five preseason opponents to less than 25 points

BR PREDICTION
The matchup advantages for Pittsburgh on both sides of the ball, the superior QB rotation and Denver’s charitable preseason ways all point to a road cover by the favorite.
BetRepublic.com Pick: Take the Steelers

SU: Straight-up
ATS: Against the Spread

Lines provided by Sportsbetting.com