NFLX Week 3, Saturday, Aug. 28

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Last Updated on Saturday, 28th Aug 2010, 

Written by BetRepublic

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Three of Friday night’s NFL preseason games stayed under the posted total and the overall record through two and-a-half weeks is now at 25 overs and 14 unders (64-percent).

In New Orleans there was no stopping the scoring and it didn’t matter that Drew Brees and most of the first team offense had left the game. In fact, the 23 points that the Saints and visiting San Diego Chargers combined for in the fourth made it the highest scoring quarter of the game.

Keys to a second-team offense scoring are a veteran QB, good protection packages at the line of scrimmage and a coach or co-ordinator that prefers an up-tempo gameplan.

Brees, the 2009 leader in pass-percentage (70.6) and QB Rating (109.6), was sacked only 20 times all of last season. New Orleans returned all five members of its championship winning O-line this year and what those starters pass on to the second teamers can’t help but set in. It made things fairly comfortable in the pocket last night for second-string QB Patrick Ramsey, a nine-year veteran, who was signed this summer.

HC Payton is known for having a dynamic offense and hey, it doesn’t hurt when you’re free agent rookie tailback (Chris Ivory) ends up leading the game in rushing and receiving yards!


One of Saturday’s games that could be worth a look for a play on the "Over" is Tennessee at Carolina (3, O/U 37). The Titans have scored 18 and 24 points in two preseason games, right in line with their 2009 average (22.1 ppg). The QB mix is full of veterans with Vince Young, Kerry Collins and Chris Simms and protection from the O-line has been excellent.

HC Fisher has not traditionally put a lot of emphasis on preseason winning but after last year’s 0-6 SU/ATS start to the regular season don’t put it past the Titans to spice things up today.

Carolina’s offense has struggled with passing and HC Fox may first look to establish a ground game to take pressure off his QBs. The Panthers are 3-11 SU/ATS in the preseason since 2007 including six-straight losses and this team needs to find some urgency, which should eventually lead to some scoring.
BetRepublic.com Pick: Take the Over

WELCOME BACK
Five teams started this season with back-to-back road games and four will make their home debut tonight. As we saw with the Chiefs (0-3) on Friday, there is a fine line between “wanting” to get a win and actually getting a win, but all four teams today should deliver

1. Cleveland at Detroit (-2.5, O/U 40)
Lions lost at Pittsburgh, won at Denver
Detroit has been so bad for so long that it’s not asking a lot for some improvements in 2010. As we mentioned in yesterday’s preview, the Lions can match last year’s regular season win total with a second-straight preseason win today and between QB Stafford, WRs Johnson and Burleson, and RB Best they should be able to deliver one for their fans today.

2. Dallas at Houston (-5, O/U 41)
Texans lost at Arizona, lost at New Orleans
Online sportsbooks have adjusted this line by 2-2.5 points across the board this morning as reports surfaced about how many starters the Cowboys were resting. Houston will go after the Cowboys in this game and could win straight-up but in our opinion the value is gone.

3. Seattle at Minnesota (-5, O/U 38.5)
Vikings won at St. Louis, lost at San Francisco
Apparently the Vikings have some new, hotshot QB starting under center today. We’re staying away from this game.

4. San Francisco at Oakland (-1.5, 37.5)
Raiders won at Dallas, won at Chicago
Lot of things going on in Raiderville that don’t seem right: A 2-0 record, line movement in favor of the home team and a pass rush that is piling up sacks like they’re preparing for a flood!

Bragging rights are at stake but this matchup screams ‘defensive battle’ and these teams meet again in Week 6 when there is a lot more on the line. The two most recent preseason meetings played prior to a regular season matchup (2002, 2006) both stayed "Under" the total by at least a touchdown.

QUICK HITS
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 37.5): Even if QB Manning does start this game HC Coughlin will not want to risk further injury to one of his top players. HC Harbaugh has publicly downplayed the importance of preseason records but first of all, he’s 2-0 so he can say things like that. Second, the Ravens D will not be able to help themselves once QB Bomar enters the game.
BetRepublic.com Pick: Take the Ravens

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (-4, 38.5): The pressure to win, the chemistry question marks and the QB competition have all been elevated in Arizona and Derek Anderson will start in place of Matt Leinart. How will the Cardinals respond?

The weather forecast is clear skies and light winds and these two have played "Over" the total in four-straight preseason meetings since 1998.