The BR NFL 'Season Win Total' Picks

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Last Updated on Thursday, 9th Sep 2010, 

Written by BetRepublic

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In a lot of ways, backing up our 6-1 record from last year’s NFL win totals is quite similar to the challenges New Orleans will face defending the Lombardi Trophy.

At least that’s what we like to tell ourselves, anyway.

And while the final grade looks good on paper, a few of us were reflecting on last year’s picks and had to remind each other that going into Week 17, we needed three games to go our way or it could have been a season to forget.

It’s a tough call figuring where the road will lead for a lot of teams but it’s also the kind of bet that keeps on giving throughout the entire season and one that most bettors – us included – can’t pass up. So without further adieu, here are the picks we’re going with this year.

DALLAS COWBOYS – Under 10 (-120)
Tony Romo is coming off a breakthrough season with wins in December and (finally) a playoff victory for his resume. It does little to help the Cowboys current list of problems which include an injury riddled O-line that was such a big part of Romo’s success.

Questions in the secondary, an inexperienced kicker with a reputation for inconsistency and the third toughest schedule in the league all bolster our belief that this season will be a step back. Pressure from Jerry and the media to make an appearance at Super Bowl XLV in Dallas won’t help.

NEW YORK GIANTS – Over 8.5 (-125)
When everything that could go wrong does and a team still finishes 8-8, a line from the books that is only asking for a one game improvement instantly catches our eye. New York was devastated by injuries in 2009 but enter this campaign with reinforcements on both the front and back end of the defense.


With 10 games against teams who were over .500 last season, Eli Manning needs be sharp but he is coming off one of his best statistical seasons yet. With more experience for his top weapons, New York will compete every week and we have them booked as a top contender to win the NFC East.

TENNESSEE TITANS – Over 8 (-136)
Vince Young was playing at a much higher level in the second-half of last season then he had in the past and as defenses key in on RB Johnson, Young is under the gun to prove he is a top tier QB. It’s a different situation this time around and with a solid O-line and good supporting cast, look for Young to add to an already impressive 26-13 SU record as a starter.

The schedule leaves little room for error but with HC Fisher’s gameplanning we’re giving the Titans our vote to finish better than .500 on the season.

CINCINNATI BENGALS – Under 8.5 (-115)
This team stood tall on defense last year but injuries took their toll, resulting in a shortened playoff. The explosive new offense is primed to boost Cinci from its 22nd ranked perch for scoring but against the fifth hardest schedule, will it be enough?

The Bengals start in New England and then host Baltimore. Week 7 begins a four-week stretch of difficult opponents including a stop at Indianapolis. From Week 12 out, every game is against either a playoff team or a divisional foe and while we’re willing to give the Bengals a sweep over Cleveland, it’s not likely they are going 4-0 vs. Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

Factoring the chemistry issues that follow Terrell Owens wherever he goes is reality and the cheerful banter this team displays after preseason wins against Denver won’t exist during a losing streak.

Maybe Cinci wins the Super Bowl and TO retires a happy man, but we’re seeing speed bumps this year for a Bengals team that won’t catch anybody sleeping.

EXACT WIN TOTALS
Online sportsbooks are forced to price a lot of teams with too much juice to bet the Over/Under but if there is a team you’ve got a handle on, consider checking Sportsbetting.com for ‘Exact Win Totals’.

With this option you need to be bang-on but the payback is much sweeter. An example would be the Denver Broncos, who we see ending in the five-to-six win range. Paybacks are +300 and +250 on those targets respectively; a little easier to swallow than the -150 that’s required on a straight "Under" bet.

TEAM WIN TOTAL TRENDS
Over/Under data for betting NFL futures based on the strongest trends from the past decade is available at BetRepublic.com, just click ‘NFL Trends’.

SHOP AROUND
Lines we’ve listed here are available with our sponsors but as is usually the case, numbers at each outlet were a little different. With the NFL season about to kickoff we can’t understate the value of having multiple books to choose from for betting sides, totals or futures.

Good luck with your plays and if you decide to book anything, stop by the stadium and share your picks with the rest of the members.