Stanley Cup Finals: Philadelphia vs. Chicago

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Last Updated on Saturday, 29th May 2010, 

Written by BetRepublic

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(7) PHILADELPHIA vs. (2) CHICAGO

Series Price: Flyers (+205), Blackhawks (-245)

Game 1: Saturday, May 29 at 8:05 pm ET

Line: Blackhawks (-200)
Over/Under: 5.5 OV (-125)

2010 Playoff Record (SU/ATS): Philadelphia has been padding the online accounts of bettors ever since March 7 when the tide turned vs. Boston. Betting ‘Orange’ produced plus-3.2 units of profit vs. the Canadiens and brings Philly’s net total to plus-8.09 units on the moneyline. Puckline bettors are 13-4 laying the goal and-a-half.

Chicago’s mediocre moneyline results received a big boost via the team’s Western Final sweep vs. San Jose. Its current value is now plus-5.82 units. Puckline bettors are 10-6 backing the Hawks ATS.

As the series favorite Chicago will take another crack at opening on home ice, where so far the team is 0-2 in Game 1’s this postseason, getting outscored 9-2.

Head-to-Head: These teams met March 13, just days before the injury that sidelined G Michael Leighton for eight weeks. The Flyers won that game 3-2 with Leighton stopping 39-of-41 shots. The loss sparked the beginning of Chicago’s biggest slump all season where the Hawks were 2-5-2 through March 30.

The only previous playoff meeting between these teams was in 1971 when Chicago swept the Flyers in the quarterfinals.

Philadelphia currently holds a 13-2 edge vs. the Blackhawks in their past 15 meetings including a 7-1 record since 2002.

Chicago has not won in Philadelphia since November 9, 1996 when Garth Snow was the Flyers netminder. Of Philly’s 8-straight home wins in that span, five were by a margin of 2-plus goals.

Over/Under Notes: All five games in the Flyers-Canadiens series were posted with a five, making it 16-of-17 games for Philadelphia overall during this postseason. The team’s record is 7 overs, 6 unders and 4 pushes including 1 under in the only game where bookmakers offered a 5.5 (Game 5 vs. Boston).

An "Over" trend that saw the Blackhawks to a 5-1-2 O/U/P mark has lost some of its steam. The series vs. San Jose was a split, with 2 overs and 2 unders but the first "Over" (Game 2) was with less than five minutes to play in the third period and the "Over" in Game 4 was scored into an empty net during the final minute.

Overall Chicago has played 7 overs, 6 unders and 3 pushes in 16 postseason games.

The past three meetings between these teams in Philadelphia have all stayed below the total.

Intangibles: Chicago has one of the league’s most elite offenses and it will be up to the Flyers defensive group to wear them down with every opportunity. Both teams are rested so the Hawks will be fast and Pronger, Carle, Timonen and Coburn will log massive ice time looking to make life difficult for all forwards including Dustin Byfuglien (8 goals, 2 assists, 16 games, 4 game-winning goals). Big Buff was given a pass far too often vs. the Sharks and we saw what can happen.

Flyers foot soldiers Asham, Hartnell, and Laperriere also need to be physical but for Philly to have an edge the team needs everyone to contribute on the scoresheet as well. Goals from second and third-liners such as Ville Leino, special teams contributions from Claude Giroux; all hands need to be on deck to make this series work.

Goaltending is a push entering game 1 of this series. Neither Leighton nor Niemi played more than 40 games during the season and both have been stellar when called upon in the playoffs.

Shot blocking, discipline and winning battles – along the boards and in the corners. It is hard to statistically monitor all of these factors but at this point in the NHL season it is all these little things that will need to come together for a team to be successful.

Series Pick
In our playoff predictions the Bruins’ second round meltdown vs. Philadelphia was a sign of bad things to come. We then missed with both underdog picks in the Conference Finals and it sunk our overall series record in the postseason to 6-8. We could try to bail out in the Finals with a play on the favorite but if there is one thing the past seven weeks has shown it is to expect the unexpected. With that said, we like Philadelphia’s chances to put up a good fight in this series and paying back at 2-to-1, think it is the better option.
BetRepublic.com Pick: Flyers in seven games

Current odds to win Cup are listed above (Series Price). For options on correct series results or how many games will be played in the best-of-seven, see Sportsbetting.com.

Odds to win Cup (before Round 1): Philadelphia (35/1), Chicago (7/2)

Odds to win Cup (before Round 2): Philadelphia (12/1), Chicago (7/2)

Odds to win Cup (before Round 3): Philadelphia (15/4), Chicago (3/2)

SU: Straight-up
ATS: Against the Spread