Saturday, 23 January 2010
Sunday, 24 January 2010 There are six knockout places up for grabs this weekend in the Heineken Cup and everything to play for. Although Toulouse and Biarritz are already through, the two French sides are gunning for home advantage in the quarter-finals and will be busting a gut against Sale and Glasgow respectively. In fact, there are only four games on this weekend’s Heineken Cup card that are meaningless, with neither team having anything to play for. Perpignan v Treviso on Friday, Brive v Scarlets on Saturday, and Newport v Gloucester and Harlequins v Cardiff on Sunday.

The three humdinger ties though are undoubtedly the trio of winner-takes-all clashes between Northampton and Munster on Friday, Ospreys v Leicester andLondon Irish v Leinster on Saturday.
 

Of the three it is Leicester who appeal the most as a betting medium. The Tigers have played 10 ties in Wales against Welsh opponents and have managed to avoid defeat in five of them. It’s a decent record and one which gives optimism to those who fancy backing Richard Cockerill’s men on the handicap.

Last week the Ospreys were a shambles when going down 27-7 to Clermont in France. Their lineout was poor, as was their scrum, and they gave away far too many silly penalties - the count was 11 to Clermont’s two. Back at the Liberty Stadium they are likely to be a whole lot better, but their weaknesses last week are precisely where Leicester are strong. It is no surprise therefore, to see Leicester given just a two-point start, but those kind of handicaps tend to be a waste of time, as the handicap tie becomes a bigger factor the closer the encounter is likely to be. Back Leicester at odds against, instead, or if you really want to push the boat out, Bet365 offer 21-10 that the visitors can win by 1-12 points. It looks a fair price, considering Leicester have recently downed the Guinness Premiership leaders Saracens, and demolished Wasps in a run that has seen them win five in a row.

Leinster and London Irish do battle at Twickenham because of Reading’s sensational run of form in the FA Cup. London Irish though seem to have gone off the boil in the last few weeks, and they were pretty dismal last weekend when squandering a 12 point lead against the Scarlets, eventually losing by nine points. Reigning Heineken Cup champions Leinster have been in sensational form over the past few weeks, and they upped a gear considerably in the second half last week against Brive, with their talisman Brian O’Driscoll securing the bonus point in the final minute with a well-worked try. Going into a tie such as this with all the confidence in the world cannot be underestimated, and Leinster look a solid wager giving up a three-point start on neutral turf.

And to the undoubted blood-and-thunder encounter between Northampton and Munster at Thomond Park. In 35 Heineken cup encounters at Munster’s legendary stadium, the Red Army has only suffered defeat once. It is a truly awesome record, and one that must surely concentrate Northampton’s minds at the task in hand. The Saints can draw strength from the fact that on their own turf, they beat Munster 31-27 in round one. On the downside though, many pundits have been highlighting that there has been only a five day turnaround for Northampton. But last weekend’s efforts brought the reward of a facile 34-0 victory over Perpignan, which can’t have been too much of a strain. It is no surprise that the Irish firms Boylesports and Paddy Power have tried to duck trade on Munster by giving Northampton a ten-point start - the biggest in the betting village. As such, it may be worth taking the Irish firms up on their kind offer, or even hunting around for Munster to secure a narrow victory, such as 6-10 points, or even the 1-12 point option.

 

Fri 8pm: 1pt Northampton +10 v Munster at 10-11 (Paddy Power)

Sat 1.35pm: 2pts Leicester v Ospreys at 11-10 (Bet365)

Sat 6pm: 1pt Leinster -3 v London Irish at 10-11 (Bet365)