November Internationals: Week 4 Betting Preview

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Last Updated on Thursday, 26th Nov 2009, 

Written by jameshipwell

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November Internationals: Week 4 Betting Preview
By www.BetRepublic.com

Saturday, 28 November 2009
Italy v Samoa, 14:00
Ireland v South Africa, 14:30
Scotland v Argentina, 14:30
Wales v Australia, 17:15
France v New Zealand, 19:45

England may not be playing this week, but who cares? Given the turgid rugby that Martin Johnson’s crew have foisted on the British public these past few weeks, it’s good riddance to the English Rose. And to think, the IRB has saved the best 'til last with some mouth-watering match-ups this weekend.

Tri-Nations champions and World Cup holders South Africa line up in a bid to dethrone the Grand Slam holders Ireland at Croke Park in a fixture that acts as an unofficial world title fight. And Ireland coach Declan Kidney has set out his stall in no uncertain terms by ditching regular fly-half Ronan O’Gara and replaced the long-serving Munsterman with Jonathan Sexton.

Sexton, who is just 24, replaces O’Gara due to a decent performance in last week’s late humbling of minnows Fiji. The Dubliner scored 16 points in the 41-6 defeat of the Islanders, and Kidney has kept the faith. The Leinster youngster plays in a different mode to O’Gara, preferring to use the ball more, rather than O’Gara’s more steady outlook. And it is that running game which Kidney hopes can galvanise Ireland’s exciting backline.

South Africa have had an indifferent tour, losing to Leicester in a landmark club v country contest at Welford Road, as well as a fired-up France in Toulouse. Peter De Villiers’ men got back on track last week with a stabilising victory against Italy in the unfamiliar surroundings of Udine.

Punters may look at Ireland’s inability to beat Australia a few weeks ago, but that 20-20 draw was largely down to Ireland’s lack of preparation. The squad have been in training camp now for three weeks, and the familiarity will be seen to much better effect against the Springboks. Stan James make Ireland a best-price 6-5, but the best play might be to speculate on the winning margin markets, with the same firm going 2-1 that the home side triumph by between 1-12 points.

Rugby punters won’t know where to look this weekend, because Wales’s clash with Australia looks a real cracker and the purists will be purring over France’s showdown with New Zealand in Marseille. Wales probably rate a decent wager at odds-against, but there will be those nagging doubts that the Wallabies will roar back after their humiliating defeat to Scotland at Murrayfield last weekend. It was the first time Australia had lost to Scotland in 27 years, and the Wallabies will be desperate to put on a good show. That said, Wales have been inches from putting in a complete performance this autumn, and if it all clicks, Australia could be in real trouble, no matter how committed they are.

The best bet of the weekend though has to be in Scotland’s dour game with Argentina in Edinburgh. Scotland were at their stubborn best last week against Australia, tackling everything that moved and wrestling their visitors into submission. The problem with Scotland, however, has never been their attitude or passion, but they have continually failed to attack teams and beat them by scoring tries. Australia have never been good at grinding it out in wet conditions, which is something that Argentina happen to specialise in. This is going to be a low-scoring encounter and with a six-point start in hand, Argentina look real value.

BetRepublic Recommendations (1-5pt staking plan):
1pt win Ireland to beat South Africa by 1-12 points at 2-1 (Stan James)
1pt Wales to beat Australia at 11-10 (Victor Chandler)
1pt Argentina +6 at 10-11 (Ladbrokes)