Six Nations 2010: Week 2 Picks

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Last Updated on Friday, 12th Feb 2010, 

Written by jameshipwell

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Where is the BetRepublic rugby union analyst putting his money this weekend?

The crunch fixture this weekend is undoubtedly the blood and thunder encounter between France and Ireland at the Stade de France (Sat, 4.30pm). The best team in the Six Nations so far take on the Grand Slam champions, and this clash will go some way in deciding where the trophy goes in late March.

Neither side were entirely convincing last week, but the performances of hulking centre Mattieu Bastareaud and Brian O’Driscoll sets up a mouth-watering tussle in the midfield. In fact, if you look up and down the team sheet, there are fascinating head-to-heads, and the battle between the No.8s Jamie Heaslip and Imanol Harinordoquy could well crown the world’s best player in that position.

It’s such a nip and tuck match, that there are very few layers willing to put their head above the parapet, but Ladbrokes look to have strayed from the pen with their +7 Ireland quote and punters should snap that up quick smart.

In France’s last game of the autumn internationals, they were completely ripped apart by New Zealand, eventually succumbing 39-12. Although France took the scalp of world champions South Africa a fortnight beforehand, the Springboks were tired and a shadow of their former selves. As a result, they look massively overrated.

Since Marc Liveremont took over after the rugby world cup, France have played 10 games at home and have been handicap losers seven times. It’s not an inspiring record, and one that suggests that the public have been duped into thinking that Les Bleus are better than they are. Ladbrokes’s offer allows us to test that theory and at 8-11, it looks a fair price. Punters looking to go that bit further should also consider backing the French to score the first points of the second half. They have done so at home in nine of their last ten home matches and are 8-11 with Blue Square to do so again.

Wales put in a shocking performance at Twickenham last weekend, but on the face of it they didn’t perform too badly given the circumstances. Warren Gatland’s side were trailing just 6-3 in the 34th minute, having been comprehensively outplayed at the line-out and had virtually no possession or territory. Only a moment of madness from lock Alun Wyn Jones finished them, and from the moment he went into the sin bin, Wales conceded 17 unanswered points until he returned. By the time he got back to the field, however, Gatland’s waspish tongue must have been pretty sharp because Wales completely dominated from that juncture. If Gatland and his coaching team can persuade their side to put in a similar performance at home against Scotland, there is surely going to be only one winner.

Wales have been either winning or drawing at the break in 12 of their last 16 games. In their last ten matches at the Millennium, Wales have been trailing at half-time just three times. To Australia in the autumn when they were comprehensively dismantled by the Wallabies, Ireland and world champions South Africa. It’s quite a roll-call, and one that you wouldn’t tack Scotland on to. Those three are some of the fastest teams out of the blocks in world rugby and Wales should dominate this encounter (Sat, 2pm). Try the home side by more than 12 points with Blue Square at 11-10.

Finally, it is the romantic Valentines tie between England and Italy in the Eternal City of Rome on Sunday (2.30pm). Both sides seem to have a very unromantic view of how rugby should be played if last weekend’s shocking showings are anything to go by. England were slow and ponderous, despite improving from their awful autumn, while Italy found Ireland’s defence extremely difficult to get through.

All in all it could easily be another turgid display by both sides, and the unders in the total points market should be investigated when a layer is brave enough to put up some prices. Until then, consider sniffing around the second-half handicap market that served us so well in Dublin last weekend. Italy have been given an eight-point start for the second period by Totesport, and with England often falling away in the second half under Martin Johnson, you might as well double up in the same market this weekend.

BetRepublic Betting Recommendations (1-5pt staking plan):

Saturday Feb 13:

Wales v Scotland (2pm)
1pt Wales to win by more than 12 points at 11-10 (Blue Square)

France v Ireland (4.30pm)
1pt Ireland +7 at 8-11 (Ladbrokes)
2pts France to score the first points of the second half at 8-11 (Blue Square)

Sunday Feb 14:

Italy v England (2.30pm)
1pt Italy +8 on the second-half handicap at 10-11 (Totesport)

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