Where is the value in betting on this year's Australian Open in Melbourne?

Top Half

Was it really a year ago that Rafa Nadal comforted a despondent Roger Federer after the Swiss came up short in five sets (7-5, 3-6, 7-6, 3-6, 6-2) in Melbourne? So much has happened since. Sir Roger eventually put an end to a seven-month title drought. He finally conquered Roland Garros and thus clinched a career Grand Slam. He leapfrogged Pete Sampras in the record books at Wimbledon, and can now legitimately be called The All-Time Slam King. He became a dad, welcoming twin daughters into his life. And despite surrendering a two-sets-to-one lead against Juan Martin Del Potro in the US Open final, he finished the year No. 1 for the fifth time in six years. Meanwhile, Nadal experienced some ups and downs of his own. After capturing his sixth Slam at the ‘09 AO, the Majorcan was dethroned at Roland Garros (after 31 straight wins). He was slowed by knee problems and fell off the No. 1 perch he had snatched from Fed in August ‘08. He endured the split of his parents.

Once again, the best-in-show rivals find themselves on opposite sides of the Aussie Open draw. The top-seeded Federer has been handed a somewhat favorable shakedown, his toughest obstacles being a potential fourth-round confrontation with either home-country favorite Lleyton Hewitt (whom Federer has defeated in their last 14 head-to-head outings) or Gilles Simon, and a quarterfinal meeting with either No. 9 Fernando Verdasco or No. 6 Nikolay Davydenko. Federer didn’t exactly finish ‘09 on a tear, having sputtered out with losses to Novak Djokovic in Basel, Julien Benneteau in Paris and both JMDP and Davydenko in London. Davydenko, meanwhile, enjoyed one of the ATP’s hottest post-USO runs. The Russian struggled with injuries early on in ‘09 (he was limited to five tournaments through April and even briefly fell out of the top 10 for the first time in four years), but with his did-he-or-didn’t-he match-fixing days seemingly behind him, he turned what had all the makings of an unremarkable campaign into a year to remember, scalping Nadal in the Shanghai final and dropping Nadal, Robin Soderling, Federer and Del Potro in quick order to win the year-end ATP Tour Finals. Most recently, he topped both Federer AND Nadal en route to the Doha final. But Federer still holds a favorable 12-2 career mark against the Russian (including a quarterfinal win at the AO in ‘06) and should (at least) reach the semis.

If Davydenko was the fall/winter campaign’s standout performer, Djokovic wasn’t far behind. Under the savvy eye of Todd Martin, the world No. 3 turned a ho-hum start into a successful (albeit Slamless) year. Tagged by some as delicate (he’s thrice retired at Slams with various ailments), Nole played with a newfound gusto (and fitness), upending Fededer in the final of the Swiss’ hometown tourney of Basel, and topping Frenchman Gael Monfils to win the Paris Masters. Also in the top half of the draw, the Serb and surging Swede Soderling sandwich a talent-laden quarter that features the likes of France’s Jeremy Chardy, Mikhail Youzhny, Tommy Robredo, ‘08 AO finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and a not-quite-ready-to-wilt Tommy Haas. While Soderling may have pulled off the biggest upset of ‘09 with his win over Nadal in Paris (where the Swede reached his first-ever Slam final), his career-year should be all but impossible to duplicate. Should Tsonga stay injury-free, look for the Ali-look-alike to take down Soderling in Round No. 4 to set up an enticing, anybody’s-guess Djokovic vs. Tsonga quarterfinal (a rematch of the ‘08 final).

Bottom Half

Fresh of his announcement that he won’t play Davis Cup in ‘10 (in an effort to preserve his suddenly vulnerable knees), Andy Roddick will surely be tested in Melbourne. The No. 7-ranked Texan’s quarter in the bottom half of the men’s draw will be anything but easy to circumnavigate. But if his kickoff win in Brisbane (where he downed Richard Gasquet, Tomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek) is any indication, the 27-year-old is up for the challenge. A-Rod could face fellow American Sam Querrey in the third round, and would then face potential showdowns with Fernando Gonzalez, Marin Cilic or Stan Wawrinka to reach the quarters. Should he get there, he’d likely face either pal James Blake or US Open titlist Del Potro. Considering that Andy has never beaten the towering Argentine, to paraphrase the Magic 8-Ball, his chances of reaching the semis are: “Outlook Not So Good.”

Bookending the very bottom of the draw are Nadal and No. 5 Andy Murray, who won an ATP Tour-best six titles in ’09 and became the first Brit to ascend to No. 2. But the at-times-dominating Scot just didn’t get it done at the Slams, where many expected him to flourish. He simply couldn’t shoulder the Henmanian hopes thrust upon him at Wimbledon (where he stalled in the semis against Roddick) and despite emerging as the thinking man’s pick in Flushing Meadows came out flat in a fourth-round loss to Cilic. So look for the 22-year-old to come out firing with a sense of urgency in Melbourne, where he should all but glide into the quarters (his most legitimate challenger, Monfils, did reach the Brisbane semis, but has been nursing a sore shoulder and is not 100 percent). Waiting for the Brit will most likely be Nadal, who could face big-serving John Isner or Philipp Kohlschreiber in the third round, and Stepanek, Ivo Karlovic, Benneteau, Mardy Fish or Ivan Ljubicic in Round 4.