Okay we’ll just go ahead and say it. Pittsburgh is going to repeat.

Taking the Steelers (+700), or picking the reigning champ in any sport to win again the very next year might seem like a copout to some but when a team had so many pieces in place, achieved its goal and then comes back the next season looking just a good it feels like the logical choice.

Online sportsbooks across the board have New England (+350) listed as the favorite so it’s not exactly like we’re taking the easiest pick on the board either. We look at it this way: Billy Boy Belichick and his Brady Bunch had an off year. Pittsburgh played a dynamite season, battled three formidable playoff foes and is now facing doubts that every Super Bowl champ in the National Free-agent League must endure.

If the Steelers weren’t a hungry enough team with a ferocious Top 3 defense it would be easy to take a crapshoot on the Pats or some other franchise. But they are.

Competition out of the Ravens camp is going to make the run to the playoffs interesting and if Baltimore had an Andre Johnson or a Larry Fitzgerald in the line-up they would rank higher. Instead, the Ravens have a machine still successfully built on a defense that has lost its driver along with a couple fairly critical co-pilots.

Baltimore gets a Wild Card vote from us and we see them winning at least once in the post-season, possibly twice, depending how the seeding works out.

Tennessee was a tough choice to win the AFC South. If Houston and Indy could merge into one team they would overtake the Titans this year but on their own both the Texans and Colts out-flaw Jeff Fisher’s group. Our second Wild Card goes to Peyton Manning and the Colts.

Taking the Chargers to win the AFC West is the same as when your Grade 1 teacher used to give you a point for spelling your name right on a quiz.

NFC

The AFC has won nine of the past 12 Super Bowls but a peek at the four NFC divisions makes it seem as if a changing of the guard could be coming up within the next year or two. There are obviously a couple of duds in the mix but as a whole it appears that the intra-conference competition through the years is going to produce a couple of potential powerhouses.

Divisional picks for us are New York, Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle. We give the Wild Cards out to Philly and Minnesota.

QBs on all six teams are going to play a big role and we don’t necessarily mean the opening day starter. Defense last year was a question mark at times for our divisional winners but all four have made noticeable upgrades in 2009.

New Orleans has a new defensive coordinator in place this year but unless Gregg Williams can play five positions at once, depth will be what makes or breaks the Saints. We’re putting our faith in the off-season moves New Orleans made and picking them to take down Green Bay in the Conference Final.

Offshore sportsbooks are paying 20-to-1 on the Saints to win the Lombardi Trophy – six spots down from what bettors are getting on the Giants (+900) and for our money, the Saints at 10-to-1 to win the NFC is the top futures bet available on that side.

Divisional Rankings

One trend this season sweeping the prediction pages of the football industry is a disclaimer warning readers how wrong they are likely to be. It goes something like this:

The Excuse in Advance method: “It’s practically impossible predicting winners in the NFL because the teams change so much year after year.”

Or maybe you’ve seen the blame gamer technique. It starts with a list of reasons why last year’s picks turned out so poorly before shooting enough holes in the new picks to make a whiffle ball jealous.

Neither one is a style you’ll find at Bet Republic. Just picks. Here’s how we picture the final standings after Week 17:

AFC East: NE, MIA, BUF, NYJ
AFC North: PGH, BAL, CIN, CLE
AFC South: TEN, IND, HOU, JAX
AFC West: SD, KC, OAK, DEN

NFC East: NYG, PHI, DAL, WSH
NFC North: GB, MIN, CHI, DET
NFC South: NO, ATL, CAR, TB
NFC West: SEA, SF, ARI, STL