BR NFL Best Bets – Week 3

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Last Updated on Monday, 03 October 2011 07:42
Written by BetRepublic
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This week’s plays feature a first-half total from Carolina and a "live" dog from the AFC

Our NFL Best Bets went 2-0-1 last week, the two wins coming with the Saints and Chiefs-Lions Over and the Cowboys settling for a push in San Francisco. It was as close as we could hope for a cover but seriously, that play looked dead in the water when Tony Romo left so we’ll settle for the tie.


Since the launch of BetRepublic.com in 2008, our NFL Best Bets have a 46-26-3 (64-percent) record against the number and this week we have two plays to look at.

Play No. 1 – JAGUARS AT PANTHERS
The `95 NFL Expansion Bowl sees first round draft pick Blaine Gabbert make his first career start against first overall pick Cam Newton. The Jags have a straight-up win to their credit in Week 1 and all Carolina can offer from Newton’s back-to-back 400-plus passing days is a fish tale about the one that got away (Packers).

Jacksonville averaged 27.5 points in non-conference road games last season on 178 rushing yards per game and we expect to see a heavy dose of RB Jones-Drew. Carolina started strong with 10 first quarter points against Green Bay and struck for two majors in the first 30 minutes against Arizona. With this being one of the more winnable games on either teams schedule we look for an ample amount of scoring early.
Pick: Take the Over 21 in the first-half

Play No. 2 - Dolphins (+3) over BROWNS
Much is being made of Miami’s yards-against the first two weeks but facing the Patriots and Texans could actually be a benefit for D-Co Nolan’s defense. Cleveland dominated the second-half at Indianapolis last week but the Dolphins bring a much stiffer challenge and since taking over, HC Sparano has consistently had his team ready for road games.

Rookie Dolphins RB Daniel Thomas carried 18 times for 107 yards vs. the Texans

The Dolphins are 15-5 ATS as a road dog the past three seasons, they are 6-2 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games and when facing conference foes the Dolphins have outscored their opponents 23.8 to 18, going 5-0 SU/ATS.

Miami will play its next three games away from home with a bye in-between and Cleveland is home for back-to-back games followed by a rest week. We have conflicting data on the Over/Under but all signs are pointing to the Fish putting up a good fight. Make sure you get at least +3 points (check Bodog and Bet365).
Pick: Take the Dolphins


Get our top Over/Under plays for Week 2 at “Totally” Covered