BR NFL Best Bets – Week 6

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Last Updated on Saturday, 15 October 2011 07:07
Written by BetRepublic
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This week’s top picks feature a pair of NFL side plays and one of the Over/Under picks we listed with this week’s early picks. Best Bets are batting .500 on the season (5-5-1 ATS) but with these three NFL picks we are looking to move back to the black.

WEEK 6 NFL BEST BETS

52... 49... 63... Hut, hut, hut! Those numbers almost start to sound like an audible at the line but in reality, they are a series of three rough estimates from a pointspread prognosticator on the net spitting out figures for how many points the Green Bay Packers “should” score on Sunday vs. the hapless Rams.

Our old-fashioned methods say differently and we’re going with the big underdog as our first Best Bet for Week 6.

Play No. 1 – Rams (+15.5) over PACKERS
Strength of schedule for the first-half of the Rams’ 2011 campaign stacked the chips against a strong start but with RB Jackson and most of the secondary out with injuries, 0-4 SU is not a big surprise.

Pass protection for Bradford has to improve as does the time of possession (27:18 avg). That defense can’t be left on the field all day against anyone or they’ll eventually get burned. St. Louis needs to be more productive on first downs and when Bradford does find his targets it would help if they actually completed the catch. St. Louis leads the league in dropped passes (12).

One week off and Jackson’s return to full-strength may not solve all these problems but we should see an improvement. Green Bay has the Vikings on-deck and since 2008, the Packers are 6-3 SU immediately before a divisional road game (no bye in-between). The losses were by 3, 4 and 3 points and their average margin of victory was just 9.7 points per game.
Pick: Take the Rams ***BEST BET***

Play No. 2 – Texans (+9) over RAVENS
Baltimore has played over the total four-straight games this season and the Ravens went into the bye week off a Sunday night win against New York. The past two years after the Ravens bye, both games stayed under the total and Baltimore was 2-0 SU/ATS, winning each game by double-digits.

Texans RB Arian Foster had 25 touches for 125 yards against the Ravens last season (100 rushing) and Houston needs another big game from him against Baltimore’s staunch defense


Baltimore covered the spread by double-digits in each of those home games as well and they were both against non-divisional AFC teams with winning records (Broncos, 6-0 SU and Dolphins, 4-3 SU). It sounds a lot like the setup for this week’s contest but that’s where the similarities end.

In 2009, Denver was coming off a huge divisional road win against the Chargers on Monday Night Football. That meant a short rest-week for the Broncos, back-to-back travel and it was also a 2-hour time zone early bodyclock game.

In 2010, Miami was playing its third road game in four weeks, Baltimore was a back-to-back road spot and the Dolphins had played through a really tough schedule to start the season.

Houston is off a home loss where they also lost a key piece of D-Co Phillips’ defense (Williams). They are also playing without WR Johnson but this team has enough playmakers on both sides of the ball to make this game interesting.
Pick: Take the Texans ***BEST BET***

Our third NFL Best Bet for Week 6 is an Over/Under play we featured early in the week from the Cleveland Browns vs. Oakland Raiders (-6.5, O/U 44). The line for this game at Sportsbetting.ag hopped to 44.5 for a few days before dropping back to our ‘Early Buy’ price on concerns over Cleveland’s lack of offense. Coming off a bye week, we think the Browns will do their part.
Pick: Take the Over ***BEST BET***

For more on post bye-week handicapping check out First and 10 or stop by the BR Live Blog. You can also read our Week 6 NFL picks for every game on the card and don’t forget the NFL Gameday Thread all day Sunday in the forum.

Good luck this weekend.

SU: Straight-up
ATS: Against the spread
O/U: Over/Under