F10 – Wild Card Week, Early NFL Picks

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Last Updated on Monday, 02 January 2012 16:35
Written by BetRepublic
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Coaching changes, injury news and early predictions for the Wild Card weekend

It didn’t take long for Tampa Bay and St. Louis to drop the axe on head coaches Raheem Morris and Steve Spagnuolo Monday, as each was handed their walking papers just one day after a disappointing regular season.

The Buccaneers tightened the noose Sunday in a 45-24 loss against division rival Atlanta and the effort displayed by several players gave plenty indication the team had quit on Morris. It was their 10th consecutive loss and eight of 10 were by more than double-digits.

QB Josh Freeman took a step back this season and it was obvious the offensive play calling was in need of a change. Look for Morris to resurface in the future with another team in a lesser role.

The hunt for a new boss in St. Louis is already underway and it appears the team is interested in former Titans head coach Jeff Fisher. Team owner Stan Kroenke has money to spend and Fisher has the experience to help take the club in a winning direction. The process will also include hiring a new general manager to replace Bill Devaney, who was also fired Monday.

The Rams finished 2-14 SU in 2011, matching their 2008 which was the year before Spagnuolo took over. St. Louis had an overall record of 10 wins and 38 losses with Spagnuolo but they were just 3-15 against NFC West opponents.

2012 NFL DRAFT ORDER
In other news Monday, the Colts were active firing Vice Chairman Bill Polian and general manager Chris Polian. Indianapolis owns the first overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft followed by the Rams, Vikings, Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

WILD CARD ODDS – EARLY NFL PICKS
Playoff betting lines are posted and the first game is Saturday at 4:30 pm ET between the Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans (-3, O/U 38). Cinci fell short against the Ravens at home in Week 17 but they were 5-1-2 ATS on the road this season and home teams in the Wild Card round have a pedestrian 55-57-1 ATS record since 2000. Add in Houston’s playoff inexperience and circle these Bengals as the first "live" dog of the postseason.
Pick: Take the Bengals

INJURY NEWS
The Steelers are 9-point favorites for Sunday’s game against Denver and Sportsbetting.ag has set the total at 34. RB Mendenhall is out for the season with a torn ACL in his right knee, confirmed Monday and the team’s second-leading rusher; Isaac Redman (479 yards, 4.4 YPC) is expected to start.

TOTALLY COVERED – FALCONS AT GIANTS
Sportsbetting.ag has the Giants favored by three points and the Over/Under is set at 48. Atlanta (-11) demoralized Tampa Bay 45-24 in Week 17 while New York was busy raining on Jerry’s parade in a 31-14 win Sunday night.


RB Bradshaw’s return has increased New York’s rushing yards per game by more than 20-percent


Teams that cover the spread by 10 points more have a 21-33-1 ATS record in the Wild Card round and that applies to each of these teams, but we like the value on the total for this contest. Matt Ryan and Eli Manning have plenty of weapons at their disposal but establishing a run-game will be critical.

RB Turner was third in rushing with 1,340 yards this season and the return of RB Bradshaw helped spark a Giants run game that was last in rushing yards per game this season (89.2).

Atlanta scored nine points per game less on the road this season (20.8) than they did at home, while the Giants scored three fewer points in home games (23.2). Those averages add up to 44 points and with the defenses playing their best football, we see an edge to the low side.
Pick: Take the Under


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