Super Bowl System – Giants vs. Patriots

Details
Last Updated on Monday, 30 January 2012 00:20
Written by BetRepublic
Hits: 690

Part I of a handicapping system that uses regular and postseason statistics to try and mathematically predict this year’s Super Bowl winner

SUPER BOWL XLVI SYSTEM – GIANTS vs. PATRIOTS

Sports betting systems come in all shapes and sizes throughout the season and with increased access to databases, bettors are sometimes able to gain an edge but the bookmakers are well armed. There’s a good chance that for whatever new system bettors are passing around the net, oddsmakers will be one step ahead.

Hank Stram developed one of the most famous NFL systems of all-time for predicting predict Super Bowl winners and in one stretch starting with Super Bowl XIX between the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins, Stram’s system went on a 10-0 run against the spread.

 


New England and the New York are the fifth set of teams to meet for a Super Bowl rematch

Results have tapered off the past few years and last year’s formula pointed heavily at Pittsburgh to cover (loss), but the overall success still makes it worth running the numbers.

We’ve plugged in the stats for Super Bowl XLVI between the Giants and Patriots with a few minor tweaks to account for injuries and late season/playoff performance.

Here’s how it all adds up:

1. If a team has won the Super Bowl in last three years, add 10 points to their side
The most recent Super Bowl appearance for each of these teams followed the 2007 season, where New York upset the Pats 17-14 straight-up.
No points

2. If a team’s opponent is going to its first ever first Super Bowl, add eight points to the non-virgin side
No points

3. Add eight points to the team whose defense allowed fewer rushes per game
Teams rushed 30 fewer times vs. the Patriots during the regular season but New York’s average during its five-game win streak is 22.6 and that would rank third overall behind the Saints (21.3) and 49ers (21.9). New England’s run D had a 25.3 regular season average but they’ve been targeted 30.7 times since Week 13. The Pats also carried just 24 times vs. New York in Week 9 and that makes this department a solid ‘Push’.
No points

Enter Sportsbetting.com’s Free Super Bowl Props Contest for a chance to win $100,000

4. Add seven points to the side with more total offensive rushes
New England has a 27.7 average including playoffs and New York’s average in the 13 games where RBs Jacobs and Bradshaw were 100-percent active was 27.3.
No points

5. Add seven points to the team that had the best overall record straight-up
The Patriots (13-3 SU) had the best record in the AFC while New York (9-7 SU) needed a Week 17 win just to qualify for the postseason. New England gets the points here but it’s worth noting that in the past 16 Super Bowls, the higher seed is just 1-12-2 ATS. (2009, Saints vs. Colts were both No. 1 seeds)
Patriots +7

 


New England’s 32-29 win over Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVIII marked the last time a No. 1 seed from the AFC was crowned champion


6. Add five points to the team with the lowest average yards per carry allowed on D
Including playoffs, these teams have allowed identical 4.5 yards per carry averages this season.
No points

7. Add four points to the team that had a better record against the spread
New York was 8-7-1 ATS during the season but they are 3-0 ATS in the playoffs. New England was 9-7 ATS and are 1-1 in the postseason; another draw.
No points

8. Give four points to the team that had a better score in net penalty yards
The Pats have an edge in this category that is smaller than a single false start penalty. We’ll give them a token two points although the edge here is negligible.
Patriots +2

9. Add four points to the team with more TDs scored on special teams
The only special teams TD by either team was Week 11, when Julian Edelman returned a punt 72 yards to help ice a 34-3 win over Kansas City on Monday Night Football. New England’s get full credit here for having a distinct edge in overall special teams.
Patriots +4

New England has a plus-13 edge through the first part of our modified Super Bowl system. Follow BetRepublic.com on Twitter and get instant notification when we post the final stats