NY Giants vs. New England Patriots – Part II

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Last Updated on Tuesday, 31 January 2012 23:43
Written by BetRepublic
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The exciting conclusion to this year’s new and improved Super Bowl system focuses on yards per play, scoring and QB sacks

SUPER BOWL XLVI SYSTEM – GIANTS vs. PATRIOTS

Part I of our system explained the details and ran numbers for the first nine parameters. New England took the points in three categories for having the better overall record, an edge in net penalty yards and better special teams.

The score is 13-0 for Pats as we head into the second-half and remember – we’ve made a few minor adjustments this year to account for recent performance and injuries.

To review Super Bowl XLVI System Part I, click here

Here’s the final analysis:

10. Give three and-a-half points to the team with more yards per pass attempt
Tom Brady attempted 611 passes this season and that’s almost 100 more than his career average during nine injury-free, full seasons (521.8). Eli Manning was fourth overall with 589 and that’s more than 100 short of the all-time record set by Drew Bledsoe  in 1994 (691).

New England’s averages, overall and when playing away from home were 8.3 and 8.8 while the Giants scored 7.9 and 7.6. That’s a double-dip for Brady and the fact that his road average actually increased earns him full marks.
Patriots +3.5

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11. Add three and-a-half points for fewest points allowed
Finally, a spot for New York to get on the board! After all, New England gave up 6, 577 yards this season and everyone knows how porous the Pats were on defense, right?

New England did give up the second-most yardage but they finished inside the top-half for points allowed at 342 (21.4 PPG). New York on the other hand gave up 25 points per game (400/16) and even if we included playoffs that average only drops to 23.1; the Pats goes to 20.7.
Patriots +3.5

12. Add three and-a-half points for fewest rushing TDs allowed
Taking all games into account, each of these teams allows an average of 0.8 rushing TDs per game.
No points

13. Add three points to the team with the most sacks
New England had 40 regular season sacks and eight more in two playoff games for a nice 2.7 per game average. But the Giants front line is a menace, tacking nine playoff sacks onto an already impressive total of 48 through the first 17 weeks. That’s an overall average of 3.0 per game and it’s good enough for 3.0 system points.
Giants +3

 


In the past five games the Giants pass rush has averaged four QB sacks per game


14. Give two and-a-half points to the team that attempted the fewest passes on offense
See No. 10 for details
Giants +2.5

15. Tack two onto the team that was better in the punting department, overall
Football Outsiders ranks punts based on net yardage and return yardage only. The return numbers are then adjusted for weather and altitude based on stadium type (cold, warm, dome, Denver) and week. New England (15.2/-0.2) has an edge in both categories and therefore earns two points.
*New York’s statistics show 10.9 and -8.4; for more details visit Football Outsiders
Patriots +2

16. Add one and-a-half to the team with the best average in offensive yards per carry
New York (3.6 RYPC) deserves more credit with a healthy RB Bradshaw in the mix but this was compensated for in Part I – No. 4. New England (4.0 RYPC) gets the nod.
Patriots +1.5

17. And finally, give one point to the team that had a higher completion percentage
Really hard to argue with the numbers Brady (65.6-percent) put up in the regular season and during two playoff games he’s upped the ante to 68.6-percent on 70 attempts. New England’s win over Baltimore was a “bad” game for Brady and he only completed 61.1-percent of his passes, pretty much where Manning (61.1-percent) sits through 19 games.
Patriots +1

Total Score: Patriots win 24.5 – 5.5

CONCLUSION
New York performed a little better in the second-half but even with the adjustments, this system clearly points to New England having the edge. The Giants two wins came in the sack department and the fact they attempted fewer passes. Perhaps if Tom Coughlin’s paying attention, we’ve just delivered his team’s gameplan for an upset!


For Super Bowl System – Part I, click here and to discuss the results, visit the BR Forum