Super Bowl XLVI Picks – Giants vs. Patriots

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Last Updated on Thursday, 02 February 2012 04:47
Written by BetRepublic
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The BetRepublic.com Super Bowl betting preview is loaded with trends, props and coaching data for Sunday’s game along with our ATS pick between the New York Giants and New England Patriots

FIRST AND 10 – SUPER BOWL XLVI

Ever since the days of Jackie Gaughan’s first sportsbook in the desert, standard protocol for NFL betting usually went something like this:

Bookies post a line; bettors kick it around for a few days and then eventually, the “public” power sides with the favorite and the "Over".

It probably dates back even further than the turf clubs of Vegas, but getting hard data from post-Depression ‘locals’ is tougher than teaching Madden 12 to your grandma.

This year’s playoffs have been a different story, though, especially for totals. In the first three rounds of the 2011 postseason, six of 10 games have closed with a lower total than where they opened. Results for those six games are 3 overs and 3 unders so it’s entirely possible books started too tall in the first place, protecting against what they thought would be a mad rush the high side.

As far as sides are concerned, there were two cases where public money shaded the favorite and each game involved one of this Sunday’s contestants. New York at Green Bay opened Packers (-10), closing at -7.5, and then Baltimore at New England (-7.5), which closed at an even -7.

 


Belichick spent 12 seasons on the Giants' coaching staff and was the defensive coordinator for their victories in Super Bowls XXI and XXV


The money moves were correct for each of those sides and so far in Super Bowl XLVI we have seen the Giants (+3) and the "Under" 55 grabbing enough attention to force key moves.  Current lines at Sportsbetting.com are New England (-3) at even money with a total set at 54.5.

 

COACHING CAPSULES

TOM COUGHLIN – NEW YORK GIANTS
Eighth year with team; 81-57 SU, 77-59-2 ATS (including playoffs)
Coughlin is 7-3 SU in the playoffs with New York, he’s covered the spread in all seven wins and only one of the games was played at home.

Read our Super Bowl System analysis here!

BILL BELICHICK – NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
12th year with team; 155-58 SU, 121-87-5 ATS (including playoffs)
Sometimes you have to be lucky to be good and Belichick’s win over Baltimore in the Conference Finals improved his playoff record to 17-6 all-time. The .739 win percentage is second only to the great Vince Lombardi (Packers/Redskins, 9-1 SU, .900).

 


Since Coughlin took over, the Giants are 6-0 ATS when getting points in the playoffs

 

PROP SHOP

One of the best parts of Super Bowl betting is the props that go along with it and Sportsbetting.com is offering $100,000 to anyone that can correctly pick 20 props from their list. There’s no juice to worry about and that takes the sting out of props such as “Will either team score three consecutive times?”

Check out the contest at Sportsbetting.com and if you’re looking for a prop to wager, try the "Under" 24.5 for Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski’s longest reception.

We also like the ‘Yes’ (-105) on Chad Ochocinco’s chances for catching at least one pass. If Gronkowski is limited in any way, shape or form, someone will need to pick up the slack and Ocho’s had all season to get his timing down.

 

SUPER BOWL TRENDS

- In the past 45 Super Bowls, the team that rushed for the most yards is 36-9 SU and 32-11-2 ATS

- The Over/Under 55 is the second-highest ever for a Super Bowl and in seven games since 1994 when the total was 50 points or higher, results were just 1 over to 6 unders

- The Pats are 1-3 ATS in four Super Bowls since 2000 and they are also the AFC’s No. 1 seed, who are 4-12 straight-up the past 16 tries and just 6-12-1 ATS since 1990

- Giants are the No. 4 seed and the lower seeded team is 12-1-2 ATS in the past 15 Super Bowls

- The straight-up winner in the past 45 Super Bowls is 36-6-3 ATS and Green Bay added to that stat with last year’s 31-25 win over Pittsburgh

- The NFC holds 24-18-3 ATS edge all time including a7-2 ATS run since Tampa Bay’s win over Oakland in 2003

 

SUPER BOWL XLVI PICKS

Each of these teams is going to have to win battles in the trenches and the Giants get the nod on both the offensive and defensive line. Look for the Giants to get enough pressure on Brady to keep his passing attack manageable.

New England carried more than 30 times per game the past five weeks and yardage was up but it hasn’t necessarily led to lower scoring games. Brady’s pass attempts are way down, too. He attempted 40-plus five times in the first eight games of season, peaking at 49 attempts vs. the Giants in Wk 9. Since then he’s played 10 games and has broken that barrier just once, Week 16 vs. Miami.

 


The past seven Super Bowls have seen an average of 43.9 total points per game


The Pats will try and force New York into mistakes and Manning was sacked six times at San Francisco but in the eight games before that he was taken down just 11 times total. New England was last in the league in 2010, allowing 47.1-percent conversions on third down. Yes, they improved this year but not by much (28th at 43.5-percent).

New York’s average carries in the 13 games where RBs Jacobs and Bradshaw were 100-percent active was 27.3 per game. In the Wild Card win against Atlanta, RBs Bradshaw and Jacobs carried 14 times each for 155 yards (5.5 YPC) and caught seven of seven passes thrown their way for an additional 30 yards.

NY’s carries were down a bit at Green Bay (27 for 95 yards) and San Fran (26 for 85 yards) but in the seven games prior to that, the Giants averaged 115.7 rushing yards per game. The Giants went 6-1 SU this season in seven games where they carried the ball at least 29 times, going 5-1-1 ATS with 3 overs, 3 unders and a push. This sets up to be a close game and we’re happy to take the points.
Pick: Take the Giants


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