BR NFL Best Bets – Week 1

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Last Updated on Friday, 23 September 2011 14:55
Written by BetRepublic
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Our top plays for the opening week of the NFL season are a pair of ATS picks, one from the AFC South and another from Cam Newton’s pro debut against the Arizona Cardinals

Arizona HC Ken Whisenhunt must have done something right to have earned his second-straight Week 1 matchup vs. a team whose best option at QB is a player that has never thrown a pass in a regular season pro game.

The Cardinals started 2010 with a 17-13 SU/ATS win against Sam Bradford and the St. Louis Rams and this year they’ve drawn first overall draft pick Cam Newton and a team picked by most experts to finish the year dead last in the NFC standings.

Play No. 1 – CARDINALS (-6.5) over Panthers
Newton is the seventh QB drafted first overall since 2003 and the ATS history for these players in their pro debut has not been a good one.

2003 – Carson Palmer
Made first start Week 1, 2004 at New York Jets (-5) – Lost 31-24 SU/ATS

2004 – Eli Manning
Made first start Week 11, 2004 vs. Atlanta (-3) – Lost 14-10 SU/ATS

2005 – Alex Smith
Made first start Week 5, 2005 vs. Indianapolis (-14.5) – Lost 28-3 SU/ATS

2007 – JaMarcus Russell
Made first start Week 17, 2007 vs. San Diego (-9.5) – Lost 30-17 SU/ATS

2009 – Matthew Stafford
Made first start Week 1, 2009 at New Orleans (-14) – Lost 45-27 SU/ATS

2010 – Sam Bradford
Made first start Week 1, 2010 vs. Arizona (-3) – Lost 17-13 SU/ATS

That’s six QBs over eight years and a perfect 6-for-6 at the betting window for those willing to lay the points. We’re going to try to make it seven.
Pick: Take the Cardinals

Pick No. 2 – Titans (+1.5) over JAGUARS
Divisional favorites were 2-5 ATS in Week 1 of the 2010 season and Jacksonville’s credibility took a major blow this week when QB Garrard was released in what looks like a cost-cutting move. The Titans are one of six road teams this week looking for a fresh start after winning six games or less last season and they fit a nice underdog profile that is 29-16-2 ATS (64-percent) since 2000.
Pick: Take the Titans

Our NFL Best Bets started off the season with two wins in 2010 and we were 7-1 through the first four weeks of the campaign. We finished the regular season 17-10-2 (63-percent) and look forward to another year of profitable picks. Be sure to check out "Totally" Covered for our top Over/Under picks, too.



For NFL Picks against the spread on the rest of the Sunday card, click Week 1 Picks