by Kumo

UFC 104 Picks:

Machida's skill and mastery out-class Shogun's aggressive muay thai. Machida over Shogun. At -405 I won't be betting on this one.

Rothwell is my dog pick for this event. Valesquez is a rising star, but Rothwell's experience may actually be the difference here. Dog is on Rothwell at +235.

I like Stevenson's chances against Fisher. Although Fisher could win this standing up, Stevenson will likely get Fisher to the ground and control the fight. I expect this one to go to a UD for Stevenson. I'm with the odds makers here. Stevenson at -245 is a fair bet.

Remember Yoshida eating Koschek's fists then being carried out of the cage on a stretcher? Johnson surely does. Many think this fight will be a replay as Johnson is being seen as a stronger, more physical fighter capable of KO'ing Yoshida. If it goes to the ground, Yoshida is favored. The problem is that Johnson is strong enough put off the takedown. I'm going with odds on this one. Johnson is -315. A small dog on Yoshida at +255 was being considered though.

Okami's favored at -225 to Sonnen's +185 line. I believe this is Okami's third straight under card bout. He was once very close to getting a title shot with Silva until he broke his hand. Cote got the nod instead. Okami's winning again, but maybe not in a way that puts him in the "entertainment" column. Okami's got to dominate and destroy in order to get to the main card. Sonnen's a great match-up. Ultimately, this could end up in a decision.

The Barry/Hardonk match-up could end with one of the fighters getting his walking papers. Reach and experience do go to Hardonk. Barry's 1-1 UFC, while Hardonk's 4-3 UFC. Lines are -110 for Barry, -120 for Hardonk. Barry's still fighting at heavyweight at 5'11". Personally, I'm staying away from this one. Barry should have too. (Sidenote: this could be a stand-up, leg-kick brawl - TKO on the way.)

Darth Bader returns from a MCL and PCL knee injury from this April. The TUF 8 LHW winner, Ryan Bader, is heavily favored over Eric Schafer. At -435 for Bader and +355 for Schafer, you can see what the sportsbooks think of Schafer's chances. I agree.
The other picks are:
Neer, Rivera, Al-Hassan and Struve.

Enjoy the fights. Good luck. Go Machida.