There are more than a few things that are odd about Manny Pacquiao as a fighter.

First, when he climbs higher in weight class he seems to grow more powerful as a puncher. Traditionally when a fighter moves up, his punching power is not as effective as when he fought smaller men; not so with Pac Man. Not only has it not diminished, but it seems to have increased.

Second, the more he wins the more fans he wins over – fans that were previously not on the Manny Pacquiao band wagon. Normally, when fight fans don’t like somebody they like him less and less as he continues to win and dominate the sport. But Pac Man is rare in that he commands respect, not by boastful chest thumping like many athletes in modern times, but by the opposite – the quiet kind of dignity he brings to the sport.

That said, I still don’t like him - I’m a Juan Manuel Marquez fan.

But I digress. Today’s column is not about Manny not settling unfinished business with JMM, it’s about his big fight coming up this weekend, against Miguel Cotto.

Pacquiao (49-3-2, 37 KO’s) opened as a – 300 favorite, meaning you have to lay $300 on Manny to earn a $100 profit, a prohibitive number if you are thinking of playing on Pac Man, or against Cotto (34-1, 27 KO’s), which is what my play here would be – against Cotto. In his only loss, to Antonio Margarito, Cotto was pummeled into submission, losing in the 11th by TKO. It is likely that he was beaten by a cheater, as in his next fight it was discovered that Margarito had doctored his hand wraps, combining sulfur and calcium, which when combined with oxygen form Plaster of Paris. This led to much speculation about what other fights Margarito may have cheated, especially the Cotto fight due to Miguel’s undefeated record going in and the fact that many boxing pundits put Cotto at the top of the list of pound for pound best in the sport.

Since the Margarito fight, Cotto has looked different to me, and I wonder what that beating took out of him and more important – what it
has left him with. All fighters change after their first defeat –
their air of invincibility cleared, replaced by a hint of doubt. I’m not saying Cotto is shot, what I am saying is I was never a big believer to begin with, never fully buying into the public relations hype machine that heralded his emergence on the scene. And I’m wondering if after the Magarito fight he doesn’t join me in having doubts.

As for Pacquiao, this is the perfect fight for him. It has much less risk that the other two main candidates for his next opponent – the true best pound for pound Floyd Mayweather Junior, or Juan Manuel, who has met him twice and come away with a controversial tie and loss, fights which many say Marquez was the actual winner of both.

Why risk JMM again, or Pretty Boy Floyd when tailor made Cotto is available first – a fighter who resembles Manny’s last two opponents, Oscar DeLeHoya and Ricky Hatton, two fighters who were both shot. I belive Manny sees Cotto as he saw Oscar and Ricky – damaged goods.

We’ll have to wait until his next fight to see if Manny can beat a true welterweight, when he signs for what may be the biggest purse ever, against Mayweather. For this Saturday, the smart money is on Pacquiao, even at -300. His speed, power and skill are greater than Cotto’s whose only advantage is being a natural at this size. A win here sets up the huge payday not only for fighters but for the promoters, venue, etc. And in boxing, there is a simple axiom to remember when wagering – always follow the money.