November Internationals: Week 3 Betting Preview
By www.BetRepublic.com

Saturday, 21 November 2009
Italy v South Africa, 14:00
England v New Zealand, 14:30
Wales v Argentina, 14:30
France v Samoa, 17:00
Ireland v Fiji, 17:15
Scotland v Australia, 17:15

There is a lesson to be learned from Saracens’ magnificent victory over the Springboks at Wembley on Tuesday. The Premiership’s form side were 16-3 down at half-time, but a mixture of belief, gained from almost constant success over the last two months, and bit of luck, lifted them to their 23-22 win. Saracens have played an astonishingly limited game since the start of the season, but in the second half they threw the ball around a lot more, taking chances and changing the point of attack. And to think, apart from Tuesday night, Steve Borthwick has been their skipper all season. It’s incredible that England cannot use the same template. There is nothing wrong with winning ugly if it instils a winning mentality and the belief to get out of the straight-jacket that a team’s game-plan often imposes. But for some reason, England cannot do this. Last weekend’s hilariously limited victory over a sturdy Argentina will only be seen in a positive light if England can at least stay within the bookmakers’ handicap of 13 to 14 points this weekend against New Zealand at Twickenham.

That looks unlikely, however, and New Zealand look a decent bet on the handicap. If nothing else, the offer of a 13-point deficit to New Zealand backers is cracking value. Last year when the two teams met, the All Blacks were considered by some bookmakers as 22-point favourites. New Zealand ran out 32-6 winners. And yet, just 12 months down the line, we are in the same position. Fans of Jonny Wilkinson will be quick to point out that their hero now pulls the strings of the team, which is fair, but coach Martin Johnson puts out a severely weaker team than last year. Johnson’s injury list is well documented, but New Zealand line up nine of last year’s record-breaking victors, and there is another on the bench for good measure.

The All Blacks didn’t concede a try against Italy last week, not Wales the week before that. They also blanked Australia twice during the Tri-Nations, so there may also be value in backing England to not score a try. Or selling their total points. Shop around.

The home unions are all in action this weekend, defending the northern hemisphere standard, but Scotland have a similarly difficult task in trying to halt Australia at Murrayfield. On Sunday Ireland just managed to haul themselves to parity in the dying minutes of their encounter with the Aussies. It was a match that the tourists dominated for the rest of the 78 minutes, and Ireland can be counted as lucky. As such, it is difficult to see why Scotland are considered just nine-points worse than their opposition. The last time Australia played at Murrayfield, they beat Scotland 44-15. It’s quite a beating, and if you look at the last six matches between these two in Edinburgh going back to 2000, all of them have resulted in double-figure beatings for the home side. Nine points looks a giveaway.

BetRepublic Betting Recommendations (1-5pt staking plan):
2pts New Zealand -13 (general)
2pts Australia -9 (general)

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